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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

image.thumb.png.e02f84fdf982ff76be1b6fecaa56ba24.png

 

To be more specific -- this is being caused by perpendicular flow over a barrier (mountains in this case) and a stable layer overlying an unstable one. Note the dry adiabatic layer from the surface to about ~875mb and nearly isothermal/stable layer above that. Air is pushed upwards by the mountains, ascends and then begins to sink again as it enters the stable layer, causing it to accelerate downwards. It will then sink and accelerate upwards again after entering into the unstable layer. There's enough moisture in this layer today that some of it condenses out on the ascending portion of the wave.

It's a dead ringer for mountain wave turbulence and I use it all the time in turbulence forecasting.

That’s what I thought but then I saw them showing up over flat areas of eastern MD all the way to the bay.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s what I thought but then I saw them showing up over flat areas of eastern MD all the way to the bay.

Yep, that wave train can go on for quite some distance after starting! The waves will duct inside the unstable/stable layer couplet until conditions change downstream. In this case, that's well offshore, even past where they can be seen via cloud condensation.

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59 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

If one is expecting an HECS as the Euro has depicted, then I agree that idea is trending the wrong way.  But I think we’re still in the game for a 3-6” type deal.  

I don't know...why does it feel like it's either the Euro solution or next to nothing. I mean the GFS-like solutions just slide off to the south since it can't dig and amplify.

I mean there could very well be an outcome I don't know about, lol

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30 minutes ago, H2O said:

Can we wait on the slamming of the euro until AFTER it runs?

 

The doom and gloom stuff is getting ridiculous 

it already ran dude---the 12z suite plus the 6z euro tells us exactly how 12z euro will collapse. Its like hitting 99mph pitch so hard...you dont even have to look to know that its going to hit the warehouse at Camden

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