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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The CMC actually has the ss farther east than does the Euro at hour 66. I’m becoming more convinced that this is a ns issue rather than ss.

which is the GFS/CMC wheel house. they do much better with NS than the euro right?

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Just now, Ji said:

from 2005 till 2016 or so when the euro said MECS in the 84-96 hour range...you bought a snowblower

Nope. There were some notable examples prior where if it was the line model it ended up wrong. I remember one to the tune of 20” that turned into 0.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That is so cool. Thanks for sharing

Yup, they are neato!

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Is it over?

Not for those who keep their expectations reasonable. Honestly, two observations from this winter:

1.) GFS clearly has been better than past performance, big win for NWS/NOAA NWP. 

2.) GFS seems to have better verification the past few winters for northern stream events.

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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one. 

I mean I guess the question is (and this is true of everyone in this thread right now), what exactly are your goalposts? Have you shifted from a potential 20” snowstorm to a moderate 5-10” snowstorm? And where? Or are you arguing that there will be no snow at all? And also…where? What exactly does waiving the white flag mean to you, so that others can actually respond to what you mean?

This isn’t to call you or anyone out specifically, but this is kind of the problem with these discussions. It happened last week, too. Models shifted from a major snowstorm and people “threw in the towel” and others said it was ridiculous to throw in the towel but I don’t think anyone had any sense of what other people were arguing for or against, and it makes these threads pretty unreadable during events like this. 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

This is very interesting. Look at their guidance of choice. C/P

Accordingly and in anticipation, the earlier released WPC product suite was primarily derived from the most amplified ensemble mean solution, the ECMWF ensemble mean. Manual adjustments were further applied to increase shortwave amplitude smoothed out by the mean and to maintain max WPC product continuity. There is potential for heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain particularly from the southern Appalachians and Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic into Fri, potentially into the Northeast by Sat.

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Since everyone is here, can anyone explain these ripples in the clouds. My first though was ridges but these ripples show up in places where there are no ridgesD6B0961E-6F0F-4966-9029-566149E79600.png.85fd4372949e128df400460987ee2bd4.png

image.thumb.png.e02f84fdf982ff76be1b6fecaa56ba24.png

 

To be more specific -- this is being caused by perpendicular flow over a barrier (mountains in this case) and a stable layer overlying an unstable one. Note the dry adiabatic layer from the surface to about ~875mb and nearly isothermal/stable layer above that. Air is pushed upwards by the mountains, ascends and then begins to sink again as it enters the stable layer, causing it to accelerate downwards. It will then sink and accelerate upwards again after entering into the unstable layer. There's enough moisture in this layer today that some of it condenses out on the ascending portion of the wave.

It's a dead ringer for mountain wave turbulence and I use it all the time in turbulence forecasting.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

image.thumb.png.e02f84fdf982ff76be1b6fecaa56ba24.png

 

To be more specific -- this is being caused by perpendicular flow over a barrier (mountains in this case) and a stable layer overlying an unstable one. Note the dry adiabatic layer from the surface to about ~875mb and nearly isothermal/stable layer above that. Air is pushed upwards by the mountains, ascends and then begins to sink again as it enters the stable layer, causing it to accelerate downwards. It will then sink and accelerate upwards again after entering into the unstable layer. There's enough moisture in this layer today that some of it condenses out on the ascending portion of the wave.

It's a dead ringer for mountain wave turbulence and I use it all the time in turbulence forecasting.

That’s what I thought but then I saw them showing up over flat areas of eastern MD all the way to the bay.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s what I thought but then I saw them showing up over flat areas of eastern MD all the way to the bay.

Yep, that wave train can go on for quite some distance after starting! The waves will duct inside the unstable/stable layer couplet until conditions change downstream. In this case, that's well offshore, even past where they can be seen via cloud condensation.

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