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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It's believable the GFS could be mishandling S/S energy and its release, but the release of that energy to phase w/our system is like 48-54 hour lead, pretty short. Then again, we ask ourselves...can the Euro and its EPS be that off as well with it? 

Look at these. This is at hour 66. Notice the sws on the euro, both ns and ss are deeper. That translates to a deeper h5 about 24 hours later. For me it’s all about the depth.9357FC65-6E23-43E0-9FB6-08DEF0737E62.thumb.png.c8018fda4b7ea7a37e4e543991a4f87a.pngE623EB38-5861-4278-86DF-2E701F413EF3.thumb.png.3607255767ae247bcfd0c669bcd021b2.png

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You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one. 

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Oh man! All the others made me laugh! That one made me mad!

 

I’m so sorry. I’m not good with people mad at me. Please forgive. Lol. 
 

Anyway—let’s hope the Euro brings back all the good vibes for everyone….and we start a thread  :whistle:

 

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one. 

Time of Death: 1:05 PM

 

kidding but not kidding

 

but seriously...

I won't know what to think if the euro holds serve still.

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one. 

Quoted for posterity.  

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one. 

If one is expecting an HECS as the Euro has depicted, then I agree that idea is trending the wrong way.  But I think we’re still in the game for a 3-6” type deal.  

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22 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Waves just screaming through over the weekend. This one tries to get up the coast but like the other system right before it, gets kicked OTS.

Wild to watch storms try to get it together and run up but get shoved away.

So basically a bunch of chaos...but I do hope we don't completely swing and a miss on all of these. But like Chill said, even if we don't get the Euro boon scenario, any one could poof into something short range!

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10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Since everyone is here, can anyone explain these ripples in the clouds. My first though was ridges but these ripples show up in places where there are no ridgesD6B0961E-6F0F-4966-9029-566149E79600.png.85fd4372949e128df400460987ee2bd4.png

These are called gravity waves, or cloud streets: https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/wmovl/vrl/tutorials/satmanu-eumetsat/satmanu/cms/ClStr/index.htm

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