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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

Now it seems the GFS and Euro traded places wrt to holding SW vorts.  The GFS really is the new Dr. No. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

Yeah but its not as if that upgrade now makes the GFS stuff the Euro into a locker.  If anything it just leveled the playing field some so that it wasn't Giannis posting up on Steph Curry in the paint

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4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Maybe Pacific beachfront property is the way to go for you so you can monitor it up close and personal.

rain all the way up to land at the coldest time of the year.. we started it in 2014/2015 then there was a Strong El Nino in 2015-16, followed by 6 years of strongest -PNA on record -300 vs -220 #2. This is maybe round 2. when the rain hits land the biggest part of the trenddifference is done. 

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

Is it too late to “deupgrade it” and go back to the prior version?

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Yeah but its not as if that upgrade now makes the GFS stuff the Euro into a locker.  If anything it just leveled the playing field some so that it wasn't Giannis posting up on Steph Curry in the paint

But didn’t the Euro also get an upgrade?  Maybe it was more like a downgrade. 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Meanwhile what the frickle is the GFS trying to do with this?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.thumb.png.a8771d390c34893db4f488705bdf56bc.png

That southern vort that hangs back ejects behind the northern stream vort and becomes a weak coastal. Basically what might happen if the wave in the south does hang back. Enough spacing to allow it to come north before being kicked. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Not one person here should be waving white flags, lol.  GFS is disappointing, but we're still in this to win. 

Dude.  We are WTF fans.  We say this every August when training camp starts and then we remember Dan Snyder owns the team.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

You aren’t but some of these posts are :facepalm:

It's believable the GFS could be mishandling S/S energy and its release, but the release of that energy to phase w/our system is like 48-54 hour lead, pretty short. Then again, we ask ourselves...can the Euro and its EPS be that off as well with it? 

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