January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

[frd]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago. 

How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ?  I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

This is clear as a bell. The foreign models all look similar. The Americans the same. But completely different from each other. Fascinating wondering why. Just compare them at h5 and you’ll see it plainly.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It really is amazing...the differences this relatively close to the event.

Agreed.

I say we take the GFS's better handling of the northern stream and combine it with the Euro's newfound enthusiasm for ejecting southern energy from the Southwest.

[StormchaserChuck!]

lOOK At the Pacific though

Sorry guys, but warmer Winter's are coming

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is clear as a bell. The foreign models all look similar. The American the same. But completely different from each other. Fascinating wondering why. Just compare them at h5 and you’ll see it plainly.

The NAM at 12z really improved the N/S as well and did release the S/S energy vs 6z. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

The GFS is keeping all the spacing between vorts so there are like 4 distinct pieces on h84

and not one will probably give us snow. too much of a good thing is a bad thing

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, StormchaserChuck! said:

lOOK At the Pacific though

 

Sorry guys, but warmer Winter's are coming

Thanks for the update.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, frd said:

How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ?  I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range. 

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The NAM at 12z really improved the N/S as well and did release the S/S energy vs 6z. 

Look at the depth of the trough foreign vs American 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

lOOK At the Pacific though

Sorry guys, but warmer Winter's are coming

STFU Chuck

[anotherman]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

lOOK At the Pacific though

Sorry guys, but warmer Winter's are coming

Maybe Pacific beachfront property is the way to go for you so you can monitor it up close and personal.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I look at it as a seesaw. Ones not going up unless the other is going down. Deeper, sooner, sharper is what we need. That’s my view of it anyway.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Look at the depth of the trough foreign vs American 

The GFS really has improved drastically this year. Sadly, we'll like what we see on the GEFS most likely re: what @MillvilleWxjust said about them not being upgraded. May explain why 6z GEFS had some good hits. 

 

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

Now it seems the GFS and Euro traded places wrt to holding SW vorts.  The GFS really is the new Dr. No. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, stormtracker said:

STFU Chuck

I think he and Avanti live in the same basement

[H2O]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

Yeah but its not as if that upgrade now makes the GFS stuff the Euro into a locker.  If anything it just leveled the playing field some so that it wasn't Giannis posting up on Steph Curry in the paint

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

STFU Chuck

i told you...give him his own thread to post his drivel in!

[Maestrobjwa]

Meanwhile what the frickle is the GFS trying to do with this?

[StormchaserChuck!]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Maybe Pacific beachfront property is the way to go for you so you can monitor it up close and personal.

rain all the way up to land at the coldest time of the year.. we started it in 2014/2015 then there was a Strong El Nino in 2015-16, followed by 6 years of strongest -PNA on record -300 vs -220 #2. This is maybe round 2. when the rain hits land the biggest part of the trenddifference is done. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Think I’ll just hang until the euro before I take the route, or the seeming outlook of some here, that it’s set in stone and over.

[rollenwiese]

-> Interjection:

I know HECS = Historic ECS, but what do the remaining acronyms expand to: (BECS MECS (Major?) etc?

[jaydreb]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

Is it too late to “deupgrade it” and go back to the prior version?

[cmichweather]

*** OH NO... CANCEL ALEET ALEET ***

[pazzo83]

Just now, rollenwiese said:

-> Interjection:

I know HECS = Historic ECS, but what do the remaining acronyms expand to: (BECS MECS (Major?) etc?

biblical, major, significant

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Meanwhile what the frickle is the GFS trying to do with this?

Maybe that’s the one to key on? A few small adjustments and boom. 

[Yeoman]

Hows the h5 relative to the NS? Keep it on the DL, but the roabs are missing for the SS

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Yeah but its not as if that upgrade now makes the GFS stuff the Euro into a locker.  If anything it just leveled the playing field some so that it wasn't Giannis posting up on Steph Curry in the paint

But didn’t the Euro also get an upgrade?  Maybe it was more like a downgrade. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

rain all the way up to land at the coldest time of the year..

You need your meds

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Meanwhile what the frickle is the GFS trying to do with this?

That southern vort that hangs back ejects behind the northern stream vort and becomes a weak coastal. Basically what might happen if the wave in the south does hang back. Enough spacing to allow it to come north before being kicked.