LP08 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure I agree I thought the NS was an improvement myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure I agree He's right. I have it out to 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: I thought the NS was an improvement myself. Even if the N/S is an improvement, which it is a bit more S by 66, the phasing we'd need to match the Euro evolution would be really difficult progressing from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: I thought the NS was an improvement myself. Just buries the SS SW in the in the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 NS vort is a bit more amplified this run, but the southern stream wave is still trying to eat street tacos in Chihuahua. It's a slight improvement for the NS area, but nothing in favor for the SS. Will likely be a miss south, but probably still within bounds of error. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, MillvilleWx said: NS vort is a bit more amplified this run, but the southern stream wave is still trying to eat street tacos in Chihuahua. It's a slight improvement for the NS area, but nothing in favor for the SS. Will likely be a miss south, but probably still within bounds of error. If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It's ugly. NS improved, Southern Stream took a shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Checking with blended guidance this AM and with the current model depictions, thus far, here's my "Way too Early" thoughts on the snow potential for the end of week/weekend. Some updating will occur next few days if there's meteorological reasoning. I could see this adjusting each way, but actually think it'll come a bit NW of what's being shown at this time. This looks good to me. Let's go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's ugly. NS improved, Southern Stream took a shit. So its not tasty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It's just kinda odd...all the guidance is moving that SW vort out quicker....the GFS started to at 0z and 6z and then decided to go back to tucking it down in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion. Dude it's Tuesday for a storm on Saturday, no need to pull the curtains till Thursday or the Euro caves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion. I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, H2O said: So its not tasty? I hate you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: It's ugly. NS improved, Southern Stream took a shit. Somehow not overall a worse outcome vs 6z. If the GFS is just a little wrong with the S/S energy, we'd be in business. However, the latest RGEM did the same overall evolution. Even the ICON I'd say was good with the N/S, but that energy needs to release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 One is going to be pretty off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The GFS is keeping all the spacing between vorts so there are like 4 distinct pieces on h84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: One is going to be pretty off... It really is amazing...the differences this relatively close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: One is going to be pretty off... What's weird is the 6z euro even outpaced the N/S a bit with that southern energy. it was going to phase later but pull the storm even more north. The GFS and CMC have the S/S obviously trailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Somehow not overall a worse outcome vs 6z. If the GFS is just a little wrong with the S/S energy, we'd be in business. However, the latest RGEM did the same overall evolution. Even the ICON I'd say was good with the N/S, but that energy needs to release. Enter in weenie logic of GFS not being good with the SS...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago. How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ? I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 This is clear as a bell. The foreign models all look similar. The Americans the same. But completely different from each other. Fascinating wondering why. Just compare them at h5 and you’ll see it plainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It really is amazing...the differences this relatively close to the event. Agreed. I say we take the GFS's better handling of the northern stream and combine it with the Euro's newfound enthusiasm for ejecting southern energy from the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 lOOK At the Pacific though Sorry guys, but warmer Winter's are coming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: This is clear as a bell. The foreign models all look similar. The American the same. But completely different from each other. Fascinating wondering why. Just compare them at h5 and you’ll see it plainly. The NAM at 12z really improved the N/S as well and did release the S/S energy vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: The GFS is keeping all the spacing between vorts so there are like 4 distinct pieces on h84 and not one will probably give us snow. too much of a good thing is a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, StormchaserChuck! said: lOOK At the Pacific though Sorry guys, but warmer Winter's are coming Thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, frd said: How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ? I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range. GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The NAM at 12z really improved the N/S as well and did release the S/S energy vs 6z. Look at the depth of the trough foreign vs American Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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