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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

NS vort is a bit more amplified this run, but the southern stream wave is still trying to eat street tacos in Chihuahua. It's a slight improvement for the NS area, but nothing in favor for the SS. Will likely be a miss south, but probably still within bounds of error. 

If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion. 

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Checking with blended guidance this AM and with the current model depictions, thus far, here's my "Way too Early" thoughts on the snow potential for the end of week/weekend. 

Some updating will occur next few days if there's meteorological reasoning. I could see this adjusting each way, but actually think it'll come a bit NW of what's being shown at this time. 

170695122_WayTooEarlySnowPotential0118.thumb.png.5b48fe8c91262f4884a30a3d87ff65cd.png

This looks good to me. Let's go with this.  

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion. 

Dude it's Tuesday for a storm on Saturday, no need to pull the curtains till Thursday or the Euro caves

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion. 

I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

It's ugly.  NS improved, Southern Stream took a shit. 

Somehow not overall a worse outcome vs 6z. If the GFS is just a little wrong with the S/S energy, we'd be in business. However, the latest RGEM did the same overall evolution. Even the ICON I'd say was good with the N/S, but that energy needs to release. 

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Somehow not overall a worse outcome vs 6z. If the GFS is just a little wrong with the S/S energy, we'd be in business. However, the latest RGEM did the same overall evolution. Even the ICON I'd say was good with the N/S, but that energy needs to release. 

Enter in weenie logic of GFS not being good with the SS...lol

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I don't think it's curtains yet, but there will be a limit in the NW expansion of the precip field if there is limited phasing between the split streams. NS vort actually improved, but as long as that SS vort is getting a tan in MX, the max potential will be position in the SE corner of the sub-forum. Still better than 24-36 hrs ago. 

How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ?  I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is clear as a bell. The foreign models all look similar. The American the same. But completely different from each other. Fascinating wondering why. Just compare them at h5 and you’ll see it plainly.

The NAM at 12z really improved the N/S as well and did release the S/S energy vs 6z. 

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Just now, frd said:

How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ?  I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range. 

GFS got a sizeable upgrade earlier last year. Might have vastly improved it. We also don't know the final outcome of the next set of storms, so everything is still in play. GEFS still needs the upgrade though, so there will likely be differences compared to the deterministic. 

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