stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, H2O said: It sucks. Turns into Fl Ave. awful Don't even get me started on Florida Ave. We gotta move this to banter, because imma bout to go on a rant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 12Z NAM Hr 84 compared to 6z EURO and 6Z GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm". KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it. Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc. Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon. If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy. it takes me about 24 hours to recover from seeing a 20 inch storm fade away....and then after that...i am in recovery mode and will take what i can get it...once past my 24 hour window of depression....im more than happy to recover for a 4-8. But many times....it just ends with nothing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: What about New Hampshire Ave? NH Ave will definitely cave before Conn Ave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's an inferior Ave. I have a weird obsession with this city's design and it angers me to no end that NH isn't contiguous and misaligned. **** NH Ave! it just wanted to hang out with FL Ave for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, H2O said: It sucks. Turns into Fl Ave. awful FL Ave acts like one of those medieval city boundaries - all over the f'ing place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't even get me started on Florida Ave. We gotta move this to banter, because imma bout to go on a rant. Florida Man designed Florida Ave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 37 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm". KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it. Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc. Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon. If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy. For me KU numbers feel more like a "we're due"...When they've been coming every 6-7 years, you do start big dog hunting more because it's been so long--but I could just be speaking for myself, lol But when we finally get one that'll be a psychological boon around here, me thinks...But right now we've been in this long gap since 2016...so big dog hunting we go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But we are very close to this. If this were to just go poof, it would be a precedent I think. Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I did not think the 06z Euro was quite as good as the overnight run.. or yesterday's 12z.. is this the beginning of the cave in? We will see! This post has 0 help on the overall discussion, just my two cents! Fwiw, don’t post those thoughts in here then. Take it to banter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM Hr 84 compared to 6z EURO and 6Z GFS Even that NAM look argues it has room to adjust the precip field north. Gfs there is too flat and supportive of a slider. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway. IIRC we had some big OTS swings that make these freak outs today so loltastic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I have no time to have fun here today until late but please remember this has never been and currently isn't a big storm setup. It can happen with a vigorous ULL pass but the macro pieces all point towards a quick hitting 3-6/4-8 for whomever is in the middle of the lucky stripe. Neg tilt or closed off shortwave is the boom scenario. Otherwise a power progressive wave/stripe is highly favored imho only 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Focusing on 582dm West coast ridge, we did a similar pattern in 2014. It really went -AAM for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The next few weeks are looking truly extraordinary for Garrett county and the Canaan area. While I'm sad to be leaving today, there is so much more opportunity coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway. And you can see the GFS trying to do something wonky like that with a piece just behind the wave we're tracking, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 the southern jet definitely lifts further north on 6z gfs compared to 18z. almost looks like this could morph into a multi wave type of deal for the weekend instead of one big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2015.. I think this is where we are heading for February (La Nina pattern) -AAM[La Nina] is +N Pacific/-N Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 FWIW and as we wait for the GFS, the ICON took a nice step at H5 compared to 6z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: the southern jet definitely lifts further north on 6z gfs compared to 18z. almost looks like this could morph into a multi wave type of deal for the weekend instead of one big storm. Thats kinda what I was thinking last night. Maybe a break on Friday then things get going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I know it's the Icon, but at 84, it's heading neutral. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12z Icon looks to be trending toward Euro. 84 hrs pops a low off the coast east of ILM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway. Exactly. I absolutely remember this from that time period. The Euro did this pretty regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 12z Icon looks to be trending toward Euro. 84 hrs pops a low off the coast east of ILM that thing looks headed OTS to me with that trough base location and tilt on the ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 We’ve lost the ICON. I’m out. ETA: Hopefully said nobody ever! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: that thing looks headed OTS to me with that trough base location and tilt on the ICON But better than previous ICON runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: that thing looks headed OTS to me with that trough base location and tilt on the ICON Yea man the more I examine it doesn’t look as good as I thought when I first pulled it up. def better for sure tho. Trends ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Yeah, I don't love the look of the ICON personally. More digging, but it would appear too late and too much pos tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: I know it's the Icon, but at 84, it's heading neutral. Definitely looks better at h5 compared to its 6z run. Don't think it's going to do it this run but a lot better looking h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm". KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it. Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc. Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon. If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy. Spare us your logic and facts. We'll stick with wild eyed hysteria and wish casting. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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