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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm".  KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it.  Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc.   Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon.  If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy.

it takes me about 24 hours to recover from seeing a 20 inch storm fade away....and then after that...i am in recovery mode and will take what i can get it...once past my 24 hour window of depression....im more than happy to recover for a 4-8. But many times....it just ends with nothing

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37 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm".  KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it.  Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc.   Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon.  If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy.

For me KU numbers feel more like a "we're due"...When they've been coming every 6-7 years, you do start big dog hunting more because it's been so long--but I could just be speaking for myself, lol But when we finally get one that'll be a psychological boon around here, me thinks...But right now we've been in this long gap since 2016...so big dog hunting we go!

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32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I did not think the 06z Euro was quite as good as the overnight run.. or yesterday's 12z.. is this the beginning of the cave in? We will see! This post has 0 help on the overall discussion, just my two cents!

 

Fwiw, don’t post those thoughts in here then. Take it to banter.

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I have no time to have fun here today until late but please remember this has never been and currently isn't a big storm setup. It can happen with a vigorous ULL pass but the macro pieces all point towards a quick hitting 3-6/4-8 for whomever is in the middle of the lucky stripe. Neg tilt or closed off shortwave is the boom scenario. Otherwise a power progressive wave/stripe is highly favored imho only 

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

the southern jet definitely lifts further north on 6z gfs compared to 18z.  almost looks like this could morph into a multi wave type of deal for the weekend instead of one big storm.

Thats kinda what I was thinking last night. Maybe a break on Friday then things get going again. 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm".  KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it.  Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc.   Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon.  If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy.

Spare us your logic and facts. We'll stick with wild eyed hysteria and wish casting.

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