January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Deer Whisperer]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS probs for one inch and 3 inches.  Couple of the ensembles give us snow on snow in the 10- 15 day period.

Zzzzzz

It's Christmas, relax 

[Wonderdog]

13 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

It's Christmas, relax 

He is.

[poolz1]

Cherry picking obviously....but just another op run with a wild +anom over the top.  The exact location and expanse changes each run but pretty consistent with an extreme ridge in the Arctic region at 500 in the LR.  Usually when the op consistently sees something like this the ens will adjust.  No idea if it means snow and cold for our region but definitely something new compared to what we have now.

Something changes drastically around h300 over the past few runs.  The stagnant PAC ridge gets shoved poleward and a new regime settles into the Pacific.  Possibly the jet extension that was mentioned.... which is certainly noticeable around that same hour.

Latest is a 582dm ridge just north of AK.

 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Cherry picking obviously....but just another op run with a wild +anom over the top.  The exact location and expanse changes each run but pretty consistent with an extreme ridge in the Arctic region at 500 in the LR.  Usually when the op consistently sees something like this the ens will adjust.  No idea if it means snow and cold for our region but definitely something new compared to what we have now.

Something changes drastically around h300 over the past few runs.  The stagnant PAC ridge gets shoved poleward and a new regime settles into the Pacific.  Possibly the jet extension that was mentioned.... which is certainly noticeable around that same hour.

Latest is a 582dm ridge just north of AK.

 

It seems like no matter what scenario  is spit out by the models the trough stays out west.  It moves around a bit but never moves east.  Hard to be enthused about any look …new or otherwise.  I mean there isn’t even a WAR in that map.  

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Chris78]

18z gefs has average to below average temps at 850 and 2m from about day 8 through the end of the run.

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

18z gefs has average to below average temps at 850 and 2m from about day 8 through the end of the run.

At least it seems we’re stepping out of the current “no chance of any frozen” for most of the area to having a shot at some snow/sleet/etc.  I’ll happily take that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Cherry picking obviously....but just another op run with a wild +anom over the top.  The exact location and expanse changes each run but pretty consistent with an extreme ridge in the Arctic region at 500 in the LR.  Usually when the op consistently sees something like this the ens will adjust.  No idea if it means snow and cold for our region but definitely something new compared to what we have now.

Something changes drastically around h300 over the past few runs.  The stagnant PAC ridge gets shoved poleward and a new regime settles into the Pacific.  Possibly the jet extension that was mentioned.... which is certainly noticeable around that same hour.

Latest is a 582dm ridge just north of AK.

 

EPS mean is much faster with the poleward shift of the stagnant PAC ridge. By 240 hrs it has already moved well into the EPO region. GEPS wants to keep things steady and status quo wrt recent maritime longwave pattern. Usually a sign a change is indeed coming when the ens start disagreeing more in the LR.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, it's going to be a very cold January. Let's see if we can get some precip patterns.. at the very least, La Nina is canceled out. It's usually wetter late Jan into Feb anyway. 15-16 is actually coming up as an analog, although we won't bomb a 30" blizzard probably. 

[WEATHER53]

Looking at temps and precip this month the years 1955,1975,1980,1984, 2017 match up. I don’t do pre DCA. This is before the showers tonight .

All of the January’s were cold and couple very cold.  Hope is alive 

 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, it's going to be a very cold January. Let's see if we can get some precip patterns.. at the very least, La Nina is canceled out. It's usually wetter late Jan into Feb anyway. 15-16 is actually coming up as an analog, although we won't bomb a 30" blizzard probably. 

I'd be happy with climo snowfall and like -2 temps for Jan and Feb.

[cbmclean]

15 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, it's going to be a very cold January. Let's see if we can get some precip patterns.. at the very least, La Nina is canceled out. It's usually wetter late Jan into Feb anyway. 15-16 is actually coming up as an analog, although we won't bomb a 30" blizzard probably. 

Well Chuck nailed the super ----------------- PNA weeks in advance, so maybe he's on to something here?

[nj2va]

GFS continues to honk a pretty big storm in the east between the 2nd and 4th.  Gets it down to a 966 near Nova Scotia.  

ETA:  Also, some big time cold in the middle of the country.  Ninja’d by Cobalt

[Cobalt]

Obviously it's entering LR territory, but 0z GFS drops a 1045hp into the Great Plains through hr 180.. some serious cold entering the central tier of the country after that D8 storm system. Seeds of change?

[IUsedToHateCold]

Hour 288 on the GFS showing an eastern trough with some serious cold. 

[yoda]

00z CMC has a major rain to snow storm at the end of its run - January 2 to 4th time period... 2 to 4 inches lol

[StormchaserChuck!]

We're pretty close to a major storm here

 

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Hour 288 on the GFS showing an eastern trough with some serious cold. 

Until it blasts a huge cutter right after lol

With another major arctic dump behind it

[yoda]

Gradient pattern to end the run... and SE ridge is flexing us on to the wrong side this run 

[CAPE]

GEFS, EPS, and CMC ens all have a wave riding along the boundary with cold air pressing in the Jan 2-3 timeframe. This has looked like a period of interest and guidance has been hinting for a few days, but more impressive in last night's runs.  Looking at h5, the EPS and CMC ens have a somewhat deeper trough than the GEFS, implying a chance for a bigger storm.

 

[aldie 22]

6z gfs is intriguing 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS…at least January temps look to be in the cards next week, with some snow chances increasing 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS nice depiction of PNA forecast out of record low territory…

[nj2va]

36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

6z gfs is intriguing 

I love that HP to the north on the OP…stout.

MSLP map is getting a bit of that ‘classic’ look to it.  

[aldie 22]

I'll hold off on any optimism until Roundy says it's ok

[Wonderdog]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS…at least January temps look to be in the cards next week, with some snow chances increasing 

That's all we can ask for. That is quite an incursion of cold air into the U.S. in January. Since it's 10-15 days away, it's hard to trust the models based on their track record. So we wait.

 

[IronTy]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Yeah, it's going to be a very cold January. Let's see if we can get some precip patterns.. at the very least, La Nina is canceled out. It's usually wetter late Jan into Feb anyway. 15-16 is actually coming up as an analog, although we won't bomb a 30" blizzard probably. 

So should I bring the petunias and geraniums inside?

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[IronTy]

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The puppy index says coming.  Animals know this shit, don't question it.