aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm". KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it. Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc. Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon. If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy. Violently agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And just a point, yes NAM is terrible. I'm only using it for trend lines. 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the euro bashing over one storm is over the top. It did best with the next snow event and was better with the last one too. It’s still better than Gfs overall. That said we’re getting into the range all the major globals have been good. So if only one is off on its own that’s suspect. So I think if we don’t see some significant movement in the icon/Gfs/ggem today that’s a bad sign. I also suspect if we don’t see any improvement today the euro will begin to trend towards them. This is totally superficial analysis based on recent model behavior at specific lead times. I did not think the 06z Euro was quite as good as the overnight run.. or yesterday's 12z.. is this the beginning of the cave in? We will see! This post has 0 help on the overall discussion, just my two cents! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's an inferior Ave. I have a weird obsession with this city's design and it angers me to no end that NH isn't contiguous and misaligned. **** NH Ave! I grew up just off of New Hampshire Ave but in Takoma Park Maryland it seemed pretty straight to me when I walked to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I did not think the 06z Euro was quite as good as the overnight run.. or yesterday's 12z.. is this the beginning of the cave in? We will see! This post has 0 help on the overall discussion, just my two cents! But it was completely in character so you have that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I grew up just off of New Hampshire Ave but in Takoma Park Maryland it seemed pretty straight to me when I walked to work I'm talking inside DC. After it crosses the boundary, I dgaf. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM is markedly better tho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 At a work meeting (law firm) someone mentioned that there is “going to be a big blizzard this weekend” and I said that’s not true. Guessing that they follow DT on FB. Anyway, would be thrilled to somehow lose my weather credibility over this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 So, NAM is way closer to the 6z Euro than the GFS, FWIW. Which is 1/10th of a penny. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Nam isn't too far away, things just happen too late. Definitely moving in the right direction. Still too far southeast for most of us, 95ish probably would have been furthest NW extent of flakes or just too far to get anything, but hopefully the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, H2O said: It sucks. Turns into Fl Ave. awful Don't even get me started on Florida Ave. We gotta move this to banter, because imma bout to go on a rant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 12Z NAM Hr 84 compared to 6z EURO and 6Z GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm". KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it. Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc. Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon. If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy. it takes me about 24 hours to recover from seeing a 20 inch storm fade away....and then after that...i am in recovery mode and will take what i can get it...once past my 24 hour window of depression....im more than happy to recover for a 4-8. But many times....it just ends with nothing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: What about New Hampshire Ave? NH Ave will definitely cave before Conn Ave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's an inferior Ave. I have a weird obsession with this city's design and it angers me to no end that NH isn't contiguous and misaligned. **** NH Ave! it just wanted to hang out with FL Ave for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 31 minutes ago, H2O said: It sucks. Turns into Fl Ave. awful FL Ave acts like one of those medieval city boundaries - all over the f'ing place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't even get me started on Florida Ave. We gotta move this to banter, because imma bout to go on a rant. Florida Man designed Florida Ave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 37 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The problem is people see 20" and they set that as "the storm". KU aren't every day things here, but grown ass adults act like the top number they see is it. Anything less and storm cancel...fail, etc etc. Realistically, anything over 10 in this area is shooting for the moon. If we got a 6 - 12'er I'd be jumping for joy. For me KU numbers feel more like a "we're due"...When they've been coming every 6-7 years, you do start big dog hunting more because it's been so long--but I could just be speaking for myself, lol But when we finally get one that'll be a psychological boon around here, me thinks...But right now we've been in this long gap since 2016...so big dog hunting we go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But we are very close to this. If this were to just go poof, it would be a precedent I think. Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 32 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I did not think the 06z Euro was quite as good as the overnight run.. or yesterday's 12z.. is this the beginning of the cave in? We will see! This post has 0 help on the overall discussion, just my two cents! Fwiw, don’t post those thoughts in here then. Take it to banter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM Hr 84 compared to 6z EURO and 6Z GFS Even that NAM look argues it has room to adjust the precip field north. Gfs there is too flat and supportive of a slider. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway. IIRC we had some big OTS swings that make these freak outs today so loltastic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I have no time to have fun here today until late but please remember this has never been and currently isn't a big storm setup. It can happen with a vigorous ULL pass but the macro pieces all point towards a quick hitting 3-6/4-8 for whomever is in the middle of the lucky stripe. Neg tilt or closed off shortwave is the boom scenario. Otherwise a power progressive wave/stripe is highly favored imho only 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Focusing on 582dm West coast ridge, we did a similar pattern in 2014. It really went -AAM for February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The next few weeks are looking truly extraordinary for Garrett county and the Canaan area. While I'm sad to be leaving today, there is so much more opportunity coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Back during the hot runs in 2014 & 15, we had a lot of things go poof in the mid range only to have them poof back different and snow anyway. And you can see the GFS trying to do something wonky like that with a piece just behind the wave we're tracking, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 the southern jet definitely lifts further north on 6z gfs compared to 18z. almost looks like this could morph into a multi wave type of deal for the weekend instead of one big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2015.. I think this is where we are heading for February (La Nina pattern) -AAM[La Nina] is +N Pacific/-N Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 FWIW and as we wait for the GFS, the ICON took a nice step at H5 compared to 6z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: the southern jet definitely lifts further north on 6z gfs compared to 18z. almost looks like this could morph into a multi wave type of deal for the weekend instead of one big storm. Thats kinda what I was thinking last night. Maybe a break on Friday then things get going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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