LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, GATECH said: How have we not learned that in this regime, we take everything with a grain of salt more than 4 days out, for every model (except the cmc, then it’s 4 minutes) and even then…buckle up everyone and enjoy the ride, however it turns out! I think it will snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? wherever cape lives. its a cape winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This will all be settled shortly when jester NAM runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ji said: I was just going by randy and ralph word description before maps came out My bigger concern is we have no other guidance close to what euro is showing and euro now is in its wheelhouse It might be completely wrong, but the Euro depiction seems reasonable given the amplification of the longwave pattern and the zone of baroclinicity just offshore. I don't agree with anything close to a KU with the progressive flow, but a significant snowstorm for at least parts of the MA matches the pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Model: a three-dimensional representation of a person or thing or of a proposed structure, typically on a smaller scale than the original. All are built by humans, some good, some bad. The closer you can see or get to the data or more data points, the more refined information you have, which allows for decision making (forecasting) in this respect. BLUF: the closer we get the clearer it gets weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS is better for NW crew This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one. 9 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? actually thats good question...Va Beach as of now as presented...I feel like the euro is slowly cruisin' on south for a vacation...having lived there few scenarios favor them...but this look is one of them sort of 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? Somewhere between Cape May, NJ and Tom's River, NJ. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol Would assume it includes the little Thursday event as well? An inch there skews the numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol Control was east. But the control has been jumpy asf. The ens mean is better N and W crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol Should have said compared to the Control, there are still some big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Control was east. But the control has been jumpy asf. The ens mean is better N and 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one. But those Twitter dudes said the euro was trending towards the gfs. They must be from up north where the gfs looks better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS is better for NW crew I counted 19 disasters on the EPS. thats quite high for being so close to game time. Seems like 20 really good solutions 11 middle of the road and 19 disasters. We have no idea where its headed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: Somewhere between Cape May, NJ and Tom's River, NJ. Lol Toms River native here...I want snow here but they can have some...shut down Rt 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 20 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. Yes Bob, we are doing quite well in January! I have received 3.22" rain and melted snow the first 18 days. This will likely be the wettest month since September when I received 5.24" Regarding wet January's, during the past 20 years my wettest was 2013 with 4.48" rain and melted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I think the euro bashing over one storm is over the top. It did best with the next snow event and was better with the last one too. It’s still better than Gfs overall. That said we’re getting into the range all the major globals have been good. So if only one is off on its own that’s suspect. So I think if we don’t see some significant movement in the icon/Gfs/ggem today that’s a bad sign. I also suspect if we don’t see any improvement today the euro will begin to trend towards them. This is totally superficial analysis based on recent model behavior at specific lead times. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, H2O said: p much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the euro bashing over one storm is over the top. It did best with the next snow event and was better with the last one too. It’s still better than Gfs overall. That said we’re getting into the range all the major globals have been good. So if only one is off on its own that’s suspect. So I think if we don’t see some significant movement in the icon/Gfs/ggem today that’s a bad sign. I also suspect if we don’t see any improvement today the euro will begin to trend towards them. This is totally superficial analysis based on recent model behavior at specific lead times. It really is interesting over the years Steve that when the Euro has been on its own with a solution and the rest of the models don't have it, the trend is almost always for the Euro to trend to the others. This has especially been the case where it was bullish on snow (though thats probably when were paying the most attention). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: It really is interesting over the years Steve that when the Euro has been on its own with a solution and the rest of the models don't have it, the trend is almost always for the Euro to trend to the others. This has especially been the case where it was bullish on snow (though thats probably when were paying the most attention). I think that’s true when any model is on its own. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 But we are very close to this. If this were to just go poof, it would be a precedent I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: But we are very close to this. If this were to just go poof, it would be a precedent I think. The euro historically has done very well vs the GFS modeling SS s/w's. That is one of the reasons I think it has a potential to at least be partially correct. However, as many have mentioned, lead times are getting pretty short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Think that’s exactly how this will play out. Not just because I want it. 9 hours ago, mattie g said: Yeah…we’ve seen these things play out before, whether to our benefit or detriment. I’m not confident that it’s going to happen, but I could absolutely see it happening. The only explanation right now would be for this GFS run to have been a burp, but I’m quietly confident that it wasn’t. I'm annoyed now. 12z is huge. If the 12z GFS doesn't come in with a solution close to what the Euro was showing at 0z, then I fully expect the 12z Euro to move towards the weaker-souther-easter solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amorphous Iodine Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The aipm is predicting FCPS will be closed 1/22 and 1/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Amorphous Iodine said: The aipm is predicting FCPS will be closed 1/22 and 1/23. I see what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 the europeans should disable any off runs if the 00z or 12z looked really good. In the old day, we would of still been celebrating the 00z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ji said: I counted 19 disasters on the EPS. thats quite high for being so close to game time. Seems like 20 really good solutions 11 middle of the road and 19 disasters. We have no idea where its headed We do disaster pretty well wrt tracking winter storms, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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