BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:08 PM, Weather Will said: WB 7am Sat Expand Definitely a big change here, a step in the wrong direction! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 12:24 PM, WxUSAF said: I’m only comparing the 6z and 0z maps @Weather Will posted, but 6z looks much deeper but a little more progressive with the shortwave? 6z has a broad 543 dm contour through the shortwave. 0z didn’t at all (only 546 dm) except for a tiny closed dot at the base. Expand That’s what I saw..Imo 6z would end up an even more amplified storm but it’s developing a bit further east so the question is would it be in time for places NW of 95. But given that g5 at 90 I could see that tuck up the coast even more. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:06 PM, Ji said: I was just going by randy and ralph word description before maps came out My bigger concern is we have no other guidance close to what euro is showing and euro now is in its wheelhouse Expand Hasn’t other guidance been slowly trending towards the Euro? I swear I recall that the Euro has always been better at handling southern stream systems, so that’s why it’s probably leading the charge here. Just my 4 cents (inflation). Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB Control…. Not that good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 6Z EPS is better for NW crew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:11 PM, Weather Will said: WB Control…. Not that good Expand 6 inches of cold smoke not that good lol….I’ll sign on the dotted line right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:08 PM, LeesburgWx said: This. How can it be wrong, or if it is, how can it be THIS wrong. Expand The event hasn't happened yet, no models are right or wrong at this point. It is Tuesday. We just went through a week of watching models do their thing for a week ahead of Sunday's storm. Pull it together weenies. 10 4 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Seriously...search Twitter long enough and you can find someone who agrees with you. If you think it's trending towards the gfs you can find agreement if it stayed the same you can find agreement if it looks better you can find agreement. Bunch of sheep 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 How have we not learned that in this regime, we take everything with a grain of salt more than 4 days out, for every model (except the cmc, then it’s 4 minutes) and even then…buckle up everyone and enjoy the ride, however it turns out! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:18 PM, GATECH said: How have we not learned that in this regime, we take everything with a grain of salt more than 4 days out, for every model (except the cmc, then it’s 4 minutes) and even then…buckle up everyone and enjoy the ride, however it turns out! Expand I think it will snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:19 PM, LeesburgWx said: Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? Expand wherever cape lives. its a cape winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This will all be settled shortly when jester NAM runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:06 PM, Ji said: I was just going by randy and ralph word description before maps came out My bigger concern is we have no other guidance close to what euro is showing and euro now is in its wheelhouse Expand It might be completely wrong, but the Euro depiction seems reasonable given the amplification of the longwave pattern and the zone of baroclinicity just offshore. I don't agree with anything close to a KU with the progressive flow, but a significant snowstorm for at least parts of the MA matches the pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Model: a three-dimensional representation of a person or thing or of a proposed structure, typically on a smaller scale than the original. All are built by humans, some good, some bad. The closer you can see or get to the data or more data points, the more refined information you have, which allows for decision making (forecasting) in this respect. BLUF: the closer we get the clearer it gets weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:13 PM, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS is better for NW crew Expand This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one. 9 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:19 PM, LeesburgWx said: Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? Expand actually thats good question...Va Beach as of now as presented...I feel like the euro is slowly cruisin' on south for a vacation...having lived there few scenarios favor them...but this look is one of them sort of 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:19 PM, LeesburgWx said: Ensembles looks good. Would you rather be in VA Beach or DC as of right now? Expand Somewhere between Cape May, NJ and Tom's River, NJ. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:33 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol Expand Would assume it includes the little Thursday event as well? An inch there skews the numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:33 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol Expand Control was east. But the control has been jumpy asf. The ens mean is better N and W crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:36 PM, MillvilleWx said: ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one. Expand Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:33 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: This leaves me scratching my head. How did it get better for the nw? It should have done exactly what PSU said and been further east. Im already tired lol Expand Should have said compared to the Control, there are still some big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:39 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Control was east. But the control has been jumpy asf. The ens mean is better N and On 1/18/2022 at 1:36 PM, MillvilleWx said: ECMWF still looks good to me. I wouldn't go parsing too many details for a 06z run, but even then, it looked like it was going to amplify pretty well in the subsequent frames. GFS is slowly getting into a Euro look, but it's not as aggressive with the northern stream vort and it's still holding back that southern stream piece more than the Euro, but it's sped up in recent runs. This still has snow for some of our sub, at the very minimum. Love the banana high look over top. Cold air will not be the problem with this one. Expand But those Twitter dudes said the euro was trending towards the gfs. They must be from up north where the gfs looks better. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:13 PM, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS is better for NW crew Expand I counted 19 disasters on the EPS. thats quite high for being so close to game time. Seems like 20 really good solutions 11 middle of the road and 19 disasters. We have no idea where its headed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/18/2022 at 1:38 PM, dseagull said: Somewhere between Cape May, NJ and Tom's River, NJ. Lol Expand Toms River native here...I want snow here but they can have some...shut down Rt 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 On 1/17/2022 at 5:24 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. Expand Yes Bob, we are doing quite well in January! I have received 3.22" rain and melted snow the first 18 days. This will likely be the wettest month since September when I received 5.24" Regarding wet January's, during the past 20 years my wettest was 2013 with 4.48" rain and melted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I think the euro bashing over one storm is over the top. It did best with the next snow event and was better with the last one too. It’s still better than Gfs overall. That said we’re getting into the range all the major globals have been good. So if only one is off on its own that’s suspect. So I think if we don’t see some significant movement in the icon/Gfs/ggem today that’s a bad sign. I also suspect if we don’t see any improvement today the euro will begin to trend towards them. This is totally superficial analysis based on recent model behavior at specific lead times. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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