SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gosh we are getting close in for the euro to be this far off from everything else….my money is on gfs folding at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Sterling is at least taking it seriously... and also how low the confidence is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 06z GEFS snowfall mean was still very nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I see the euro still has a SoMD special for the weekend. When the GFS gonna fold? The American empire has had its day. Hey is there a Chinese weather model? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Gosh we are getting close in for the euro to be this far off from everything else….my money is on gfs folding at 12z today. just hang your hopes on the sampling issue...that will get you through until its sampled then panic...does beg the question where does the euro get it's sampling data or is it just better at extrapolating...or none of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: just hang your hopes on the sampling issue...that will get you through until its sampled then panic...does beg the question where does the euro get it's sampling data or is it just better at extrapolating...or none of those Yeah I mean we’re almost in NAM range and they’re still pretty far apart. Like I said, euro and eps have been locked in now for several runs with minimal wavering so that’s where my money goes but it certainly is edge of your seat entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 33 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, yoda said: Looks like a bit more phasing this time comparing 06z GFS at 84 to 00z GFS 90 at the h5 level... but lets see where it goes from here... Nope... still not there Time to hit the panic button You hit it back in September… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not much difference on the 06z EURO at the h5 level through 48 comparing it to the 00z run so far... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not much difference on the 06z EURO at the h5 level through 48 comparing it to the 00z run so far...How about at 49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Not much difference on the 06z EURO at the h5 level through 48 comparing it to the 00z run so far... How about at 49 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 There was something posted yesterday saying the Tonga volcano screwed up some sensors the Euro uses for initialization data and they were unsure when those would be back online. Could this be the reason the Euro is on an island with this? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 There was something posted yesterday saying the Tonga volvano screwed up some sensors the Euro uses for initialization data and theu were unsure when those would be back online. Could this be the reason the Euro is on an island with this?I thought volcanic didn't affect our weather till 9 months later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 To my untrained eye, the Euro looks a little flatter in front than 0z. Anybody else confirm? Still gets precip up to us right as the run ends. Still much better than the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: To my untrained eye, the Euro looks a little flatter in front than 0z. Anybody else confirm? Still gets precip up to us right as the run ends. Still much better than the GFS 2 runs going the other way with heights if we're being honest with ourselves. I don't know that the euros full phased MECS is the right idea with no support still at 3.5 day leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 To my untrained eye, the Euro looks a little flatter in front than 0z. Anybody else confirm? Still gets precip up to us right as the run ends. Still much better than the GFSIf its not 12-18 don't want it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looks about the same to me…WB 6Z EURO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: To my untrained eye, the Euro looks a little flatter in front than 0z. Anybody else confirm? Still gets precip up to us right as the run ends. Still much better than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not as diggy with the sw. Looks like there were some changes to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Welp it looks like it finally fell apart per the last 2 posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not as diggy with the sw. Looks like there were some changes to me. Yup, NS not diggy as much this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 0Z EURO compared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Can we go back to when we were worried about the Euro being too amped? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Welp it looks like it finally fell apart per the last 2 posts Dude, stop. Wait until 12z before you descent into making us all miserable. It's 1000% better than the GFS still. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 43 minutes ago, IronTy said: I see the euro still has a SoMD special for the weekend. When the GFS gonna fold? The American empire has had its day. Hey is there a Chinese weather model? Yes, it's called GRAPES: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news-from-members/cma-upgrades-global-numerical-weather-prediction-grapesgfs-model-china 39 minutes ago, BristowWx said: just hang your hopes on the sampling issue...that will get you through until its sampled then panic...does beg the question where does the euro get it's sampling data or is it just better at extrapolating...or none of those Every time someone mentions "sampling", I die a little inside. Almost all meteorological information is shared internationally....nearly all modeling centers start from the same base set of data from which to choose/utilize. There are two main exceptions: 1) some data is from the private sector and has limits as to how it can be shared, 2) some places aren't allowed to use certain data from some entities; e.g., here in the US we aren't allowed to us observations from Chinese satellites which isn't the case at ECMWF/UKMO, etc. There can be other differences that are a function of data provider, such as who produces retrievals of AMVs, GPS bending angle, etc. Generally speaking, differences is in how the observations are used...not in the observations themselves. 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There was something posted yesterday saying the Tonga volcano screwed up some sensors the Euro uses for initialization data and they were unsure when those would be back online. Could this be the reason the Euro is on an island with this? No, see above regarding data. The signal that was in the "innovation" field, which is just the difference between a short term forecast and the observations. In this case, the signal is real as a result of the shockwave and showed up in certain observations that are used in NWP. I do not have it handy, but I bet we would see similar signals in other NWP systems for that same channel. Further, what was shown was just the information that went into that particular DA cycle and not the analysis itself. Even if that signal was put into the model, it would be very short lived....both in terms of that particular forecast but subsequent cycles. It has no bearing on the current set of forecasts. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Welp it looks like it finally fell apart per the last 2 posts Didn't fall apart, just a hair slower to develop and come N. But that could be the difference on how far N the shield gets. I think this sub is in a great spot tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Dude, stop. Wait until 12z before you descent into making us all miserable. It's 1000% better than the GFS still.Lol im just going by what you all are posting. Plus all the euro sensors got swallowed up by tonga 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Didn't fall apart, just a hair slower to develop and come N. But that could be the difference on how far N the shield gets. I think this sub is in a great spot tbh. DC south maybe. North of there… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I’m only comparing the 6z and 0z maps @Weather Will posted, but 6z looks much deeper but a little more progressive with the shortwave? 6z has a broad 543 dm contour through the shortwave. 0z didn’t at all (only 546 dm) except for a tiny closed dot at the base. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Run run change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: Still nothing compared to what we used to achieve in these parts. Just delivering honest words in this regard. I am going to enjoy this one for obvious reasons. These things don't happen often. Every. Single. Post. I your goal was to be a dick, stop practicing. You’ve mastered it. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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