Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 0Z EURO compared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Can we go back to when we were worried about the Euro being too amped? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Welp it looks like it finally fell apart per the last 2 posts Dude, stop. Wait until 12z before you descent into making us all miserable. It's 1000% better than the GFS still. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 43 minutes ago, IronTy said: I see the euro still has a SoMD special for the weekend. When the GFS gonna fold? The American empire has had its day. Hey is there a Chinese weather model? Yes, it's called GRAPES: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news-from-members/cma-upgrades-global-numerical-weather-prediction-grapesgfs-model-china 39 minutes ago, BristowWx said: just hang your hopes on the sampling issue...that will get you through until its sampled then panic...does beg the question where does the euro get it's sampling data or is it just better at extrapolating...or none of those Every time someone mentions "sampling", I die a little inside. Almost all meteorological information is shared internationally....nearly all modeling centers start from the same base set of data from which to choose/utilize. There are two main exceptions: 1) some data is from the private sector and has limits as to how it can be shared, 2) some places aren't allowed to use certain data from some entities; e.g., here in the US we aren't allowed to us observations from Chinese satellites which isn't the case at ECMWF/UKMO, etc. There can be other differences that are a function of data provider, such as who produces retrievals of AMVs, GPS bending angle, etc. Generally speaking, differences is in how the observations are used...not in the observations themselves. 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There was something posted yesterday saying the Tonga volcano screwed up some sensors the Euro uses for initialization data and they were unsure when those would be back online. Could this be the reason the Euro is on an island with this? No, see above regarding data. The signal that was in the "innovation" field, which is just the difference between a short term forecast and the observations. In this case, the signal is real as a result of the shockwave and showed up in certain observations that are used in NWP. I do not have it handy, but I bet we would see similar signals in other NWP systems for that same channel. Further, what was shown was just the information that went into that particular DA cycle and not the analysis itself. Even if that signal was put into the model, it would be very short lived....both in terms of that particular forecast but subsequent cycles. It has no bearing on the current set of forecasts. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Welp it looks like it finally fell apart per the last 2 posts Didn't fall apart, just a hair slower to develop and come N. But that could be the difference on how far N the shield gets. I think this sub is in a great spot tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Dude, stop. Wait until 12z before you descent into making us all miserable. It's 1000% better than the GFS still.Lol im just going by what you all are posting. Plus all the euro sensors got swallowed up by tonga 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Didn't fall apart, just a hair slower to develop and come N. But that could be the difference on how far N the shield gets. I think this sub is in a great spot tbh. DC south maybe. North of there… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I’m only comparing the 6z and 0z maps @Weather Will posted, but 6z looks much deeper but a little more progressive with the shortwave? 6z has a broad 543 dm contour through the shortwave. 0z didn’t at all (only 546 dm) except for a tiny closed dot at the base. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Run run change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: Still nothing compared to what we used to achieve in these parts. Just delivering honest words in this regard. I am going to enjoy this one for obvious reasons. These things don't happen often. Every. Single. Post. I your goal was to be a dick, stop practicing. You’ve mastered it. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dude, stop. Wait until 12z before you descent into making us all miserable. It's 1000% better than the GFS still. Lol im just going by what you all are posting. Plus all the euro sensors got swallowed up by tonga Someone said the Europeans were struggling getting data because there was a shortage of weather balloons due to Covid. Can anyone confirm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: We be chasing another phantom ... again just for different reasons. Yall must be hurtin' after all of those historic years stuff like that doesn't cut it anymore. It's just like Bob Chill said. We rarely time the big dogs we are reliant entirely on extended cold to get HECS. And another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Run run change This shows it well. Deeper but a bit more progressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Someone said the Europeans were struggling getting data because there was a shortage of weather balloons due to Covid. Can anyone confirm?Makes sense to me. I went to lowes yesterday to buy weather balloons and they said supply issue are killing them 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every. Single. Post. I your goal was to be a dick, stop practicing. You’ve mastered it. He’s on our radar. We see it. I’m just trying to give dude a chance to read the room. 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone said the Europeans were struggling getting data because there was a shortage of weather balloons due to Covid. Can anyone confirm? No. [Edit to add] And if there is a sonde missing for ECMWF, there is a 99% chance it's missing for everyone. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone said the Europeans were struggling getting data because there was a shortage of weather balloons due to Covid. Can anyone confirm? Makes sense to me. I went to lowes yesterday to buy weather balloons and they said supply issue are killing them 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I can already see that some of y’all are going or heading off the rails. I’ve summoned the Map-Kren. It’s your own faults. @mappy 3 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dude, stop. Wait until 12z before you descent into making us all miserable. It's 1000% better than the GFS still. And here I thought he had changed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I can already see that some of y’all are going or heading off the rails. I’ve summoned the Map-Kren. It’s your own faults. @mappy You're lucky I enjoy your friendship so much. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: He’s on our radar. We see it. I’m just trying to give dude a chance to read the room. Well, my 2 cents, and that’s probably what it’s worth, is that he’s been in the center of the radar for years. He adds nothing to any discussion. No insight, no information, no humor, no camaraderie with others. Further, he will divert any discussion over to his doom and gloom outlook. If you gave me mod powers for 30 minutes he’d be gone forever. Thank you and I’ll shut up now. 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ji said: Welp it looks like it finally fell apart per the last 2 posts It only goes out to hour 90 and looks pretty much the same. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Do we get precip maps from the 6z eps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Do we get precip maps from the 6z eps? Yes. Will post when out. Running now. Then everyone can wail and gnash teeth or rejoice, or perhaps something in between…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 6Z Hr 84 Control v. OZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It only goes out to hour 90 and looks pretty much the same.I was just going by randy and ralph word description before maps came out My bigger concern is we have no other guidance close to what euro is showing and euro now is in its wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 From Walt Drag this AM. Posted 33 minutes ago East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Ji said: I was just going by randy and ralph word description before maps came out My bigger concern is we have no other guidance close to what euro is showing and euro now is in its wheelhouse But isn't the GFS seemingly moving toward the Euro? Not necessarily saying it will move all the way to it or we will get a big storm, but Euro has been rock steady for 4-5 runs now while the GFS is all over the place. I feel pretty good about where we are right now. Hopefully, we see the GFS take another step at 12z. Also would like to see the CMC take a step there as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: I was just going by randy and ralph word description before maps came out My bigger concern is we have no other guidance close to what euro is showing and euro now is in its wheelhouse This. How can it be wrong, or if it is, how can it be THIS wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 7am Sat EURO Control compared to 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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