WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: About to go nuts where? In terms of cold or another storm brewing? At end of run (Day 10) theres another storm developing coming out of Texas 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 A bit more of the SE solutions then I would have hoped but still looks fairly decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 At end of run (Day 10) theres another storm developing coming out of TexasWhich means by the time this one gets here, we could be tracking another threat at D6....oh what heady times these could be!Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 00z EPS essentially unchanged on the snow mean, slightly worse. Using the 3”% to show the uncertainty — would use the 1” one but that’s about the EPS mean for the Thursday event so not sure that’s a fair representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: A bit more of the SE solutions then I would have hoped but still looks fairly decent. We be chasing another phantom ... again just for different reasons. Yall must be hurtin' after all of those historic years stuff like that doesn't cut it anymore. It's just like Bob Chill said. We rarely time the big dogs we are reliant entirely on extended cold to get HECS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: A bit more of the SE solutions then I would have hoped but still looks fairly decent. Pretty good cluster just east of the bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 240 hrs Crucial ARCTIC COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralVaNATS said: 240 hrs Crucial ARCTIC COLD Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk That’s from 12z per time stamp on bottom left. Please post up to date maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 The red meat is always 10 days away. Let us not entertain these fantastical notions until we get closer. However if it verifies then Stormtracker's day 10 threat actually is HECS material. This is the kind of anecdotal airmass that delivers the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 That’s from 12z per time stamp on bottom left. Please post up to date maps lol UpdatedSame outcome Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 45 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: We be chasing another phantom ... again just for different reasons. Yall must be hurtin' after all of those historic years stuff like that doesn't cut it anymore. It's just like Bob Chill said. We rarely time the big dogs we are reliant entirely on extended cold to get HECS. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Don't be frustrated. We can nickle and dime our way to victory. I am just saying verbatim the Euro is out to lunch... god's honest truth. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Dt dial it back dude....https://twitter.com/WxriskUpAllNite/status/1483342568654098435?t=Cst4i91eH9PAiH6BEaGAFw&s=19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Dt dial it back dude....https://twitter.com/WxriskUpAllNite/status/1483342568654098435?t=Cst4i91eH9PAiH6BEaGAFw&s=19 Well...we both know what's next. Those dreadful "2 and a quarter" first call maps and those horrendous start time maps that are a cluster f***. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Told ya….I return and it snows….return of the Kings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: The entire sub gets snow, many get demolished! I am completely sold! You better stock up NOW! I remember how CRAZY northern VA gets with a huge snowstorm in the offing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Dt dial it back dude....https://twitter.com/WxriskUpAllNite/status/1483342568654098435?t=Cst4i91eH9PAiH6BEaGAFw&s=19 Once DT shouts ALEET ALEET its gonna be a classic storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... To conclude the work week, the longwave pattern will feature an upper ridge across the eastern Pacific with a myriad of shortwaves tracking between the Intermountain West and Mississippi Valley. Resolving the complexity of these impulses will be the key to determining the level of threat a winter storm poses to the region late Friday into Saturday. On Friday morning, conditions should be quite chilly in the wake of the cold frontal passage 24 hours prior. A seasonably cold surface ridge sets up from the Great Lakes up into Quebec with pressures around 1041-1043 mb. Starting off, temperatures are forecast to be in the teens east of the Blue Ridge/Catoctins, with single digits off to the west. If any residual wind persists, there may be a threat for wind chill headlines over the Alleghenies where forecasts call for -5 to -15 degree readings. Clouds will be on the increase as southwesterly flow aloft steers a shield of mid/high level moisture toward the Eastern Seaboard. Expect plenty of clouds with highs struggling to escape the low/mid 20s in many spots. The looming question heading into the weekend is whether it will snow, and exactly how much will fall. The 00Z deterministic model suite all show a surface low forming in the vicinity of the southeastern U.S. coast by Friday evening. Surveying the ensemble low plots from the 00Z GEFS/EPS/CMC means yields plenty of menacing low tracks for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Most notably, the EPS members are more numerous and deeper than the other solutions. This will continue to be monitored in the days ahead as the parent shortwave currently appears as an innocuous wave over far northern Alberta. Until it moves into a denser observation network, uncertainty will continue to plague the forecast. One thing that is a sure bet is it will be cold heading into Saturday morning with temperatures in the teens to low 20s. For Saturday, the high temperature forecast will highly dependent on the storm track with any resultant snowpack. It does seem certain to be chilly with temperatures around 8 to 13 degrees below average. Conditions remain on the colder side through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. The upper pattern changes very little with the stagnant ridge over the eastern Pacific and broad cyclonic flow over northeastern North America. Reinforcing shots of cold air will arrive with each passing disturbance. This keeps forecast highs in the 30s on Sunday into Monday with the mountains confined to the 20s. Overnight lows stay well below average as well with temperatures in the 10s to low 20s. For the Saturday and Sunday period, the winds will be dependent on the coastal low track. So the forecast has been kept more conservative given the degree of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Scraff said: Nobody beats Jim Kosek from Accuweather (from the Feb 2010 storms) Look it up on YouTube. Absolutely classic. YOU HAVE GOT TO SEE THIS GUY In FRACKIN' ACTION! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 38 minutes ago, Jebman said: Once DT shouts ALEET ALEET its gonna be a classic storm Now we get his famous "2 and a quarter" first and final call maps along with his cluster f*** start time maps. I sense him making an emergency trip to his local Wal-Mart to stock up on crayons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looks like a bit more phasing this time comparing 06z GFS at 84 to 00z GFS 90 at the h5 level... but lets see where it goes from here... Nope... still not there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS and Euro still worlds apart at h5 for the weekend. CMC is sort of in between but closer to the GFS, as they both dampen the shortwave as it moves east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GFS also brings the leftover energy through and tries to pop another coastal but largely fails again. No idea how this turns out, but (intuitively) I think the GFS is still figuring it out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Heading into the middle of next week, as the trough lifts a bit the GEFS develops a bit of a -NAO, and still looks active down south. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS still world’s apart from EPS, but a few good hits, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS still world’s apart from EPS, but a few good hits, 18,28,and 24 are QPF bombs. Must be slow moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Looks like a bit more phasing this time comparing 06z GFS at 84 to 00z GFS 90 at the h5 level... but lets see where it goes from here... Nope... still not thereTime to hit the panic button 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 FWIW, 6z ICON is a bump north from 0z with snow into the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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