Solution Man Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’m not fully invested enough yet to care lol. There’s no trend unless a storm shows up for 2-3 runs in a row. Ok tonight’s run should make it 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 GEFS and EPS are worlds apart at 114 hours. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GEFS and EPS are worlds apart at 114 hours. Ouch. I think it’s a sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Still around 100+ hours out, there shouldn't be any towel throwing yet lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I mean it's possible that they are both wrong at this point.... 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I mean it's possible that they are both wrong at this point.... I mean it literally is...especially with all that's flying around. What if the second vort the GFS tries to get going ends up being the one instead? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro is an outlier with both the northern and southern streams. Even if it turns out correct I don't think anyone should be taking it's solution literally yet. We're going to need perfect timing to get a HECS in this chaotic pattern. I was 100% taking it literally. A storm 120 hours away is always a lock. Thank you for bringing us back down to Earth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 A red tag in another thread mentioned the GFS doesn’t handle SS as well in this range. Then again the EURO is as reliable as the Caps goaltending. Which will be correct? Calgon take me away! (1980’s commercial reference for anyone under 40.) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, ovechkin said: A red tag in another thread mentioned the GFS doesn’t handle SS as well in this range. Then again the EURO is as reliable as the Caps goaltending. Which will be correct? Calgon take me away! (1980’s commercial reference for anyone under 40.) Hey they were still using that in the 1990s...so I think us 25-30 somethings may remember! (I do) Do they still make that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 20 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Why do people capitalize "Euro"? ok fine ECMWF, happy now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, ovechkin said: A red tag in another thread mentioned the GFS doesn’t handle SS as well in this range. Then again the EURO is as reliable as the Caps goaltending. Which will be correct? Calgon take me away! (1980’s commercial reference for anyone under 40.) 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey they were still using that in the 1990s...so I think us 25-30 somethings may remember! (I do) Do they still make that? Lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yjGPgs0_S0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 We’re seriously discounting this storm because the GFS doesn’t have it 5-6 days out? Icon RGEM and cmc are all more similar to the Euro than the GFS at 500 & H5. Also, the GFS’s 5 day verification score hasn’t actually been that good as of late. The storm we scored 2 Monday’s ago was a nothing burger until about 48-60 hours out. Anything is still possible. Buffalo wasn’t seeing 1-2 feet of snow from yesterdays system until about 72 hours out. I get that we have different climo, but the point remains the same regarding track and evolution of systems. This can’t be as black and white as “one model has this nailed down perfectly and the other is completely wrong” this far out. Both could very well be incorrect and the solution lies somewhere in the middle or… something entirely different plays out altogether. We need yesterdays system out of the picture and the prospective players on the field before we can start discounting models entirely. Hoping one is right because it shows snow or saying the GFS is right because it’s done OK lately is not a legit way to go about It. We all know It is going to take near perfect timing for this to pan out, but discounting it entirely this far out is just silly. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, Snowmadness said: Maybe the GFS will trend towards the EURO this time around…lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: This can’t be as black and white as “one model has this nailed down perfectly and the other is completely wrong” this far out. Both could very well be incorrect and the solution lies somewhere in the middle or… something entirely different plays out altogether. We need yesterdays system out of the picture and the prospective players on the field before we can start discounting models entirely. Hoping one is right because it shows snow or saying the GFS is right because it’s done OK lately is not a legit way to go about It. We all know It is going to take near perfect timing for this to pan out, but discounting it entirely this far out is just silly. No one is doing this, except maybe tongue-in-cheek. People (correctly) have a healthy dose of skepticism. But no one is doing what you describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Why do people capitalize "Euro"? Pet Peeves: any use of the word "tasty" when describing a model/storm. Like nails on a chalkboard. "took a step back" The 2nd one just makes me sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Pet Peeves: any use of the word "tasty" when describing a model/storm. Like nails on a chalkboard. "took a step back" The 2nd one just makes me sad. Also, adding to that: "ticked" a particular direction. Such-and-such model "caved"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yjGPgs0_S0 Ah...now see by the time I remember it was a woman rather provocative whispering that "Take me away" Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: No one is doing this, except maybe tongue-in-cheek. People (correctly) have a healthy dose of skepticism. But no one is doing what you describe. I assume you can see into the minds of all weenies here? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiffMcmuscles Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 This may be beyond the scope of this forum (and I apologize if this has already been discussed) but will the size and scope of the Hunga Tunga volcano eruption effect the way the models are handling these systems and/or play a part in why they are so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah...now see by the time I remember it was a woman rather provocative whispering that "Take me away" Lol Pretty risque for the '70s and '80s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I assume you can see into the minds of all weenies here? Lol Not reading minds, just posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 revisionist history, the GFS wasn't all that f'ing great with the MLK storm but carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Icon looks a lot like the Euro . Canadian was kind of in-between the euro and gfs. Crazy difference between the euro and gfs at 100 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Lock it up-the KMA is on board 5 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Here is the thing. The storm is not 120 hours. its 60-70 hours because what happens then dictates the rest of the storm. So who are you trusting? the GFS and Nam at 60-70 or the EPS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Lock it up-the KMA is on board Oh man, oldie but goodie. Now we need to drag out the JMA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Oh man, oldie but goodie. Now we need to drag out the JMA CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 49 minutes ago, ovechkin said: A red tag in another thread mentioned the GFS doesn’t handle SS as well in this range. Then again the EURO is as reliable as the Caps goaltending. Which will be correct? Calgon take me away! (1980’s commercial reference for anyone under 40.) A non red tagger, me, brought up this same issue earlier today lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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