jayyy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 We’re seriously discounting this storm because the GFS doesn’t have it 5-6 days out? Icon RGEM and cmc are all more similar to the Euro than the GFS at 500 & H5. Also, the GFS’s 5 day verification score hasn’t actually been that good as of late. The storm we scored 2 Monday’s ago was a nothing burger until about 48-60 hours out. Anything is still possible. Buffalo wasn’t seeing 1-2 feet of snow from yesterdays system until about 72 hours out. I get that we have different climo, but the point remains the same regarding track and evolution of systems. This can’t be as black and white as “one model has this nailed down perfectly and the other is completely wrong” this far out. Both could very well be incorrect and the solution lies somewhere in the middle or… something entirely different plays out altogether. We need yesterdays system out of the picture and the prospective players on the field before we can start discounting models entirely. Hoping one is right because it shows snow or saying the GFS is right because it’s done OK lately is not a legit way to go about It. We all know It is going to take near perfect timing for this to pan out, but discounting it entirely this far out is just silly. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, Snowmadness said: Maybe the GFS will trend towards the EURO this time around…lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: This can’t be as black and white as “one model has this nailed down perfectly and the other is completely wrong” this far out. Both could very well be incorrect and the solution lies somewhere in the middle or… something entirely different plays out altogether. We need yesterdays system out of the picture and the prospective players on the field before we can start discounting models entirely. Hoping one is right because it shows snow or saying the GFS is right because it’s done OK lately is not a legit way to go about It. We all know It is going to take near perfect timing for this to pan out, but discounting it entirely this far out is just silly. No one is doing this, except maybe tongue-in-cheek. People (correctly) have a healthy dose of skepticism. But no one is doing what you describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Why do people capitalize "Euro"? Pet Peeves: any use of the word "tasty" when describing a model/storm. Like nails on a chalkboard. "took a step back" The 2nd one just makes me sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Pet Peeves: any use of the word "tasty" when describing a model/storm. Like nails on a chalkboard. "took a step back" The 2nd one just makes me sad. Also, adding to that: "ticked" a particular direction. Such-and-such model "caved"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yjGPgs0_S0 Ah...now see by the time I remember it was a woman rather provocative whispering that "Take me away" Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: No one is doing this, except maybe tongue-in-cheek. People (correctly) have a healthy dose of skepticism. But no one is doing what you describe. I assume you can see into the minds of all weenies here? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiffMcmuscles Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 This may be beyond the scope of this forum (and I apologize if this has already been discussed) but will the size and scope of the Hunga Tunga volcano eruption effect the way the models are handling these systems and/or play a part in why they are so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah...now see by the time I remember it was a woman rather provocative whispering that "Take me away" Lol Pretty risque for the '70s and '80s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I assume you can see into the minds of all weenies here? Lol Not reading minds, just posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 revisionist history, the GFS wasn't all that f'ing great with the MLK storm but carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Icon looks a lot like the Euro . Canadian was kind of in-between the euro and gfs. Crazy difference between the euro and gfs at 100 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Lock it up-the KMA is on board 5 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Here is the thing. The storm is not 120 hours. its 60-70 hours because what happens then dictates the rest of the storm. So who are you trusting? the GFS and Nam at 60-70 or the EPS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Lock it up-the KMA is on board Oh man, oldie but goodie. Now we need to drag out the JMA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Oh man, oldie but goodie. Now we need to drag out the JMA CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 49 minutes ago, ovechkin said: A red tag in another thread mentioned the GFS doesn’t handle SS as well in this range. Then again the EURO is as reliable as the Caps goaltending. Which will be correct? Calgon take me away! (1980’s commercial reference for anyone under 40.) A non red tagger, me, brought up this same issue earlier today lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 31 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Lock it up-the KMA is on board See the only place in Va without snow? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh man, oldie but goodie. Now we need to drag out the JMA In Korea and Japan the weenies make fun of the GFS. These aren't your grandpa's Asian models. And the hi-res version of the ICON is go good in the Alps region of Europe that they don't even look at anything besides the ICON and EC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: In Korea and Japan the weenies make fun of the GFS. These aren't your grandpa's Asian models. And the hi-res version of the ICON is go good in the Alps region of Europe that they don't even look at anything besides the ICON and EC. The ICON was pretty good for our last storm. Very consistent too. Only issue for me are the snow maps on TT which are always wrong. But others have correct ones. WB I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See the only place in Va without s ow? we thank you for your sacrifice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 WB 18Z v 12Z ICON 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The ICON was pretty good for our last storm. Very consistent too. Only issue for me are the snow maps on TT which are always wrong. But others have correct ones. WB I think. Yeah it was pretty good, but it's still not on the same level as the EC, GFS, UK, and CMC. But if the Deutscher WetterDienst continues developing it, it might soon be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Not a whole lot of difference between 18z EURO at 60 and 12z EURO at 66 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Can we get them all to phase? 2 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Can we get them all to phase? It would cut to Seattle though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Can we get them all to phase? A septuple phased system might be so amped that it loops around the globe a full time.. would still clip NW Virginia though 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now