January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Basically a pray for timing winter. We do so well in those. Merry Christmas all. Snow is great. But it means nothing in the grand scheme of life. Enjoy the time with your family everyone. 

That's pretty much white flag language

Yep. Ji. I think we are in pretty deep trouble brother. Been wrong before. And will be wrong again. But I would bet my life savings right now that we go WAY under climo. It is what it is. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Monday

[Chris78]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. Ji. I think we are in pretty deep trouble brother. Been wrong before. And will be wrong again. But I would bet my life savings right now that we go WAY under climo. It is what it is. 

Unfortunately I agree.  With the persistent pattern out west I think it's going to be pretty ugly for snow lovers.

Just got to hope for some windows of opportunity and luck.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Way too early for these types of proclamations. Our three best winter months are still ahead of us.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not long range, but as good a place to put it as any … at KOKV, this month, in 23 days, 15 below freezing, 5 with highs in the 30’s and ….. 0.05” of precip.

So give me a January with 3.5” of precip, then let’s evaluate.

 

[CAPE]

The first period of interest imo is still centered on Jan 3. As advertised, a temporary reshuffle of the Aleutian ridge shears off a vortex lobe and sends it southeastward, relaxing the western US trough, bringing colder air east/south and flattening the SE ridge for a time. Our region should be on the colder side of the boundary and there will be a chance for a wave or 2 to track along it. Beyond that the trough digs in out west again, but some signs of favorable change again towards day 15.

[CAPE]

Latest EPS gives us the look we want. Weakens the EPAC ridge and shifts it eastward with +heights into the EPO domain.

[WxUSAF]

One positive over the last 24hrs for the GEFS and GEPS, at least , is that they have been restrengthening the -AO and -NAO at the end of the runs. Previously that was starting to break down (although always hard to tell how much is just reflective of ensemble spread). 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

One positive over the last 24hrs for the GEFS and GEPS, at least , is that they have been restrengthening the -AO and -NAO at the end of the runs. Previously that was starting to break down (although always hard to tell how much is just reflective of ensemble spread). 

Yeah I have noticed that as well. The GEFS has backed off some on weakening the trough north of Japan in recent runs. That seems key in getting the Pacific to be more favorable, with the MJO progressing into phase 8.

[aldie 22]

Good thing emotions and gut can't predict weather...go enjoy Christmas ya clowns

[Ji]

One positive over the last 24hrs for the GEFS and GEPS, at least , is that they have been restrengthening the -AO and -NAO at the end of the runs. Previously that was starting to break down (although always hard to tell how much is just reflective of ensemble spread). 

Maybe thatd the eqbo doing its dirty work lol

[Solution Man]

Merry Christmas everyone

[IronTy]

JB just posted "delayed not denied".  This is not a good sign.  

[StormchaserChuck!]

trying to link the Polar ridge from pacific/atlantic on 6z GFS ensembles hr384. If this fails, we might go really +NAO. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

SE ridge is strong on Monday. Btw, if this Pacific continues.. it's only logical

We are 2x above #2 for Pacific ridge strength. 140% vs anytime any Winter since satelites

[Ralph Wiggum]

36 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

SE ridge is strong on Monday. Btw, if this Pacific continues.. it's only logical

We are 2x above #2 for Pacific ridge strength. 140% vs anytime any Winter since satelites

The mid lat ridges both in the PAC and Atl have been linking up with the high lat ridging for months now it seems. This is why im hoping the strat warming pulses continue to put pressure on the SPV. I know that effects the high lat blocking hemispherically so just wondering if that would do 'something' wrt how the mid lat ridging is propogating/reacting. Like you said though, the whole thing could backfire and the pattern go apesh!t hostile but tbh I will roll the dice with that as an option. This current base state needs a shakedown and isnt doing squat for us attm. Im also unsure if this current base state and pattern continue into mid/late January that peak climo will be able to help us or not.....but that's a different topic for a another day.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

trying to link the Polar ridge from pacific/atlantic on 6z GFS ensembles hr384. If this fails, we might go really +NAO. 

Sad but true !

    Maybe we luck n2 a 1972 or '75 type Feb.

[CAPE]

12z GEFS looks like the 0z EPS with weakening Pac ridge, -EPO, and shift in the mean trough eastward with time. Still a pretty respectable -NAO too.

[WxUSAF]

^thats the look that we were first teased with for next week. Hopefully we get it to actually happen. Euro with a nice setup and a RIC hit verbatim on Jan 3. That’s definitely a window of interest for now.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^thats the look that we were first teased with for next week. Hopefully we get it to actually happen. Euro with a nice setup and a RIC hit verbatim on Jan 3. That’s definitely a window of interest for now.

With the advertised setup, the most likely failure mode for us for the early Jan 'threat' appears to be suppression lol.

[WxUSAF]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With the advertised setup, the most likely failure mode for us for the early Jan 'threat' appears to be suppression lol.

Warm/dry, cool/wet, cold/dry

[Ji]

12z GEFS looks like the 0z EPS with weakening Pac ridge, -EPO, and shift in the mean trough eastward with time. Still a pretty respectable -NAO too.

Every good map says 384

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z GEFS looks like the 0z EPS with weakening Pac ridge, -EPO, and shift in the mean trough eastward with time. Still a pretty respectable -NAO too.

Every good map says 384

Way before that it starts

[ldub23]

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Warm/dry, cool/wet, cold/dry

Sorry. I disagree.

Its …. Warm/dry, cool/dry, cold/dry.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

^thats the look that we were first teased with for next week. Hopefully we get it to actually happen. Euro with a nice setup and a RIC hit verbatim on Jan 3. That’s definitely a window of interest for now.

Yup, def caught my eye.  Enjoy it before the Grinch comes in 12 hours. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

All my analogs had a -NAO January. 

-PNA's power to make it to Jan 15th is going to collapse. Here's what 2010 did,.. The record, A +300dm -PNA December Strong Nina. (#1 2010 +300, #2 1955 +230)

^It also began a pattern off the West coast that would really strengthen thereafter.. so we'll see

[poolz1]

Though this is the timeframe others have noted @CAPE.... 12z euro with a close call on something better than a wave running a boundary.

[brooklynwx99]

The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range:

This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range:

So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US.

It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country.

Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range.

Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances.

[Eskimo Joe]

@brooklynwx99 thank you for the analysis.