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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. 

On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. 

Have to go back to the 1990’s to find those kind of wet Januaries.  

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35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interesting. Top D11 analog is a nasty nasty ice storm in OK, TN, KY, etc and also a sizeable snow event in NC/SC. Overall, analogs show active winter wx all over the east half of the conus in general. Good times. 

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Amazing how once we got cooperation from the Pacific our luck changed. Seems like we really need Pacific cooperation anymore to get food patterns to last.

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I haven't looked close enough to figure out the connection, but my instinct is that it's not a coincidence that the Euro is a whiff for Thursday and a big hit for Saturday.  The other operational are showing more of a wave Thursday and then have little to nothing for Saturday.  Maybe the lack of a Thursday wave keeps the baroclinic zone in a more favorable position to interact with the shortwave for Saturday?  

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