87storms Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 i'm kinda interested in that thursday system. looks sneaky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: Regardless of snow no short supply of cold. Looks like deep winter for a long time to come. idgaf about cold if there is no snow. i gotta walk/bike to class, lol. and stumble back home from the bar. Might as well be 70 if its not snowing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right. When the gfs says no....its usually no If the GFS is right, it would be a disaster. But thankfully, it's likely confused with all that shit going on at H5. Changes every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i'm kinda interested in that thursday system. looks sneaky. Same Just now, NorthArlington101 said: idgaf about cold if there is no snow. i gotta walk/bike to class, lol. and stumble back home from the bar. Might as well be 70 if its not snowing 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: idgaf about cold if there is no snow. i gotta walk/bike to class, lol. and stumble back home from the bar. Might as well be 70 if its not snowing Yeah but it’s handy to have around when precip arrives. Looking at NA view it’s cold up there too…and looks aimed toward the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Keep talkin' dirty. I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like tracking big amplified storms running uphill nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I'm wondering if the models won't have an accurate idea of next weekend until yesterday's storm is out of the picture. Also, the GFS might just be waiting until 48 before game time like on Jan 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 CMC bringing it back a little. But it’s the CMC. The foreign models like this better. Might be their time to shine. Ami wrong on this, but isn’t this ss driven? Would the gfs not be in its area of strength if so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 One thing this winter is that everything seems to jump NW last minute and the GFS op has lead the way. Really impressed with it's handling on NS systems, and how NOAA/NWS has been using more recon flights to get better data into NWP for better lead times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like big amplified storms running upholl nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries I agree with that last statement. But I do want one bomb cutter into tn/oh valley with single digit cad in place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: I'm wondering if the models won't have an accurate idea of next weekend until yesterday's storm is out of the picture. Also, the GFS might just be waiting until 48 before game time like on Jan 3rd. Ops are showing us that it's active, fast flow, and cold around. The time to jump on a solution is when everything downstream is out of the way and ops can focus on the same shortwave. Last few days had some seemingly similar solutions but the snow came from different digital shortwaves. Once 2 ops show snow the same way from the same shortwave, it's tracking time. Unfortunately it's prob not going to happen outside of 4 day or so leads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: it's prob not going to happen outside of 4 day or so leads It’s like we are thinking some of the same stuff today. I was thinking 0z Wed runs are gonna be the ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s like we are thinking some of the same stuff today. I was thinking 0z Wed runs are gonna be the ones. Absolutely! Plenty time. May not gain any consensus until Thursday. All we need is to just keep the system on the map and hopefully it corrects at 60 hours. If we get more support earlier then that's all the better. We've all been through this drill before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Cmc looks nice for the mid Atlantic on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s like we are thinking some of the same stuff today. I was thinking 0z Wed runs are gonna be the ones. We both appear to strongly believe in winter "personalities" when they show up. They can have their way and override any and every conventional thought. They can render blocks useless or turn a marginal pattern into a snow parade. It's important not to let recency bias cloud your head. Last year was last year. Last time I've seen anything like what guidance is showing now is the 6 week period from 2/14 - 3/31 back in 2015. Not every winter has a personality. Especially a strong one. Last year's personality fought us tooth and nail door to door in the face of decent longwave looks. This winter appears to have shown its hand. 3 for 3 in two weeks happens like never in my yard. That's meaningful and beyond dumb luck imo. I'm riding the it wants to snow this year personality until it's over. Me thinks it's going to be a while yet... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z CMC also has a weak Day 9 threat too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 37 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Canadian is close on Friday night -- good storm for SE VA/southern Delmarva verbatim. Salisbury is ready to get plowed ...... with snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc looks nice for the mid Atlantic on Friday Maybe for coastal sections. Nothing happening in the cities, at least on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc looks nice for the mid Atlantic on Friday bit too much high pressure "press" for the interior, but if the boundary sets up further west it could be fun. as is, looks good for the tidewater region for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Ok Ukmet is Nam like for Thursday. I’ll take 2-4” quick snow storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 looks like two systems to keep an eye on...the stat padder and where the boundary stalls will determine what happens with that next southern wave for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z UKIE is a coastal scraper for SE VA and E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 @Bob Chill to piggy back on you’re pattern post…I’ve seen a lot of fret regarding Feb and I do agree the amplified north pac trough/ridge likely can’t last all winter against the Nina base state but if cold is established and the pac relaxes some, so long as we don’t go all the way to the opposite with a raging western/central pac ridge we probably can do pretty good in February. Actually if we could get another cycle of NAO help in Feb with just a mediocre pac state and cold around that’s better for snow chances Imo. We’ve had lots of years where once we get cold dumped into the conus we can survive a less ideal pattern after and get more chances. On the flip we’ve seen years where good patterns are wasted due to lack of cold around! So long as the pac doesn’t go back to putrid I think we can maintain a workable pattern even after the inevitable relaxation. Maybe even get more snow out if it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Interesting. Top D11 analog is a nasty nasty ice storm in OK, TN, KY, etc and also a sizeable snow event in NC/SC. Overall, analogs show active winter wx all over the east half of the conus in general. Good times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 As for specific threats I’ve not looked at the frontal wave Thursday so I dunno. The weekend threat imo depends totally on where the timing snd amplitude of the several NS waves coming across. If one of them can be timed up just behind the southern wave and amplified enough it will help pull the storm up. 12z gfs has a NS wave about 12 hours too fast out in front which acts in the opposite way. No way the models are going to nail that yet Imo. Probably 48 hours away from them having a realistic shot. At some point this week the guidance will start to show some consistency both across guidance and run to run and that’s when it’s ok to think synoptic details might be getting resolved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Interesting. Top D11 analog is a nasty nasty ice storm in OK, TN, KY, etc and also a sizeable snow event in NC/SC. Overall, analogs show active winter wx all over the east half of the conus in general. Good times. 2nd was from an awful year but the one snowy period that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill to piggy back on you’re pattern post…I’ve seen a lot of fret regarding Feb and I do agree the amplified north pac trough/ridge likely can’t last all winter against the Nina base state but if cold is established and the pac relaxes some, so long as we don’t go all the way to the opposite with a raging western/central pac ridge we probably can do pretty good in February. Actually if we could get another cycle of NAO help in Feb with just a mediocre pac state and cold around that’s better for snow chances Imo. We’ve had lots of years where once we get cold dumped into the conus we can survive a less ideal pattern after and get more chances. On the flip we’ve seen years where good patterns are wasted due to lack of cold around! So long as the pac doesn’t go back to putrid I think we can maintain a workable pattern even after the inevitable relaxation. Maybe even get more snow out if it. I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm simply not going to sweat a thing until Canada warms up. For me, it's that simple. Even if the pna screws us, as long as the continental air factory keeps running, we're in the game it seems. We haven't had a cold Canada for a few years. Would make sense that it keeps running. On another note... my yard just crossed 4" of precip for Jan. Might easily end up 5" or more. I don't track qpf like snow but I can't even remotely remember a wet Jan like this. Multiple events over 1". Nutty. The drought thread is suffering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Any take on the -EPO until the end of Jan.? Looking forward to tracking more chances Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I’ve been busy but just from glancing at the pattern with all the waves I’d be shocked if something doesn’t eventually work out for a flush hit in the next few weeks. Yea it’s possible stuff keeps fringing us one way then the next but just probabilities in this look would put odds that one of these waves works. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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