stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: thread for Thursday just to separate it from the weekend discussion @stormtracker @mappy @WxUSAF? Done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: FWIW, ICON moved closer to something for this weekend. Yup, was just about to post this. Still not there, but H5 improved a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: Return of the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: thread for Thursday just to separate it from the weekend discussion @stormtracker @mappy @WxUSAF? If it weren't bad enough that it's analfront snows that never work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos Bob, not only is the pattern on a heater but so are you!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z rgem looks decent at end of run. Could see the cmc show a hit today. That Texas energy is important it seems to partially phase with main shortwave and slows it down allowing it to turn corner 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos I like your excitement about 14 and 15. I really don’t remember specific storms those years, just that we had several hits, and some fairly big. Those were 2 great winters here, which is why, in my opinion, so many people were disappointed in ‘16 when we only got 1 Storm (even though it was of epic proportions). I could be wrong, but I remember reading that we had blocking due to the displaced PV rather than a -NAO for much of 2014 and/or 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Bob, not only is the pattern on a heater but so are you!! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW, ICON moved closer to something for this weekend. 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup, was just about to post this. Still not there, but H5 improved a bit. All I looked for in the Icon was any trend to the NW, and we got it. That’s a good start to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow. I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I like your excitement about 14 and 15. I really don’t remember specific storms those years, just that we had several hits, and some fairly big. Those were 2 great winters here, which is why, in my opinion, so many people were disappointed in ‘16 when we only got 1 Storm (even though it was of epic proportions). I could be wrong, but I remember reading that we had blocking due to the displaced PV rather than a -NAO for much of 2014 and/or 2015. Those really were great winters! What was the ENSO state those years? 2015 had some unusual events like that decent anafrontal snow plus a big hit by a low moving well to our west that stayed all snow. If that deal this weekend hits south and east like Jan 3, the snow totals to date for say Frederick compared to Huntingtown will look funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z GFS H5 looks like a Rorschach test right now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z rgem looks decent at end of run. Could see the cmc show a hit today. That Texas energy is important it seems to partially phase with main shortwave and slows it down allowing it to turn corner Way better than the GFS, which has an ugly gap between the northern and southern streams. RGEM should at least phase half of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 12z GFS H5 looks like a Rorschach test right now. It's fun. Beats weeks of zonal Pacific Puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Yeoman said: If it weren't bad enough that it's analfront snows that never work out I've never been on board with it or paid much attention to it. But hey, it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right. Strange times where we get upset when the Euro shows a storm and the GFS doesn't because we know the GFS is probably right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Nobody wants to be the bullseye today. Just ask the Southeast forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, mattie g said: It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow. I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then… Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 GFS loving cut off lows these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo Keep talkin' dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 WB 12Z GFS, still something to track….exact timing and which shortwave TBD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Canadian is close on Friday night -- good storm for SE VA/southern Delmarva verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo Got it…and that’s kind of what I figured. Given that I’m sitting at about 75% of climo at this point, I’m fine with being patient until discrete threats for MBY come into reliable range. Good thing is that we don’t really have to wait long. If a threat looks to miss, there should be another one on its heels that we can keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 As for this weekend-ish threat period, I’d like to see the GFS at least make a move today towards getting us snows. If we don’t see that today, then it’s getting a little too close to gametime and I’d be a little afraid that this one will slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 GFS h5 maps for the past 36 have been pretty inconsistent. Not typical for it lately. For me that’s a sign that any solution right now is pretty suspect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right.When the gfs says no....its usually no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: As for this weekend-ish threat period, I’d like to see the GFS at least make a move today towards getting us snows. If we don’t see that today, then it’s getting a little too close to gametime and I’d be a little afraid that this one will slip away. Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Regardless of snow no short supply of cold. Looks like deep winter for a long time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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