BlizzardNole Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I like your excitement about 14 and 15. I really don’t remember specific storms those years, just that we had several hits, and some fairly big. Those were 2 great winters here, which is why, in my opinion, so many people were disappointed in ‘16 when we only got 1 Storm (even though it was of epic proportions). I could be wrong, but I remember reading that we had blocking due to the displaced PV rather than a -NAO for much of 2014 and/or 2015. Those really were great winters! What was the ENSO state those years? 2015 had some unusual events like that decent anafrontal snow plus a big hit by a low moving well to our west that stayed all snow. If that deal this weekend hits south and east like Jan 3, the snow totals to date for say Frederick compared to Huntingtown will look funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12z GFS H5 looks like a Rorschach test right now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z rgem looks decent at end of run. Could see the cmc show a hit today. That Texas energy is important it seems to partially phase with main shortwave and slows it down allowing it to turn corner Way better than the GFS, which has an ugly gap between the northern and southern streams. RGEM should at least phase half of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 12z GFS H5 looks like a Rorschach test right now. It's fun. Beats weeks of zonal Pacific Puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Yeoman said: If it weren't bad enough that it's analfront snows that never work out I've never been on board with it or paid much attention to it. But hey, it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right. Strange times where we get upset when the Euro shows a storm and the GFS doesn't because we know the GFS is probably right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Nobody wants to be the bullseye today. Just ask the Southeast forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, mattie g said: It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow. I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then… Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 GFS loving cut off lows these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo Keep talkin' dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 WB 12Z GFS, still something to track….exact timing and which shortwave TBD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Canadian is close on Friday night -- good storm for SE VA/southern Delmarva verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, that's all you need to know. This is a short/mid range game and it looks "stable" which is kinda an oxymoron because progressive and stable don't jibe but 2014 and 15 had these periods of tracks getting laid down then traffic riding them. Precip shields were all small stripes. But the tracks were aimed at us enough we kept hitting. Time will tell, but this already has that feel. Hit a few more events of any size really and it's practically identical imo Got it…and that’s kind of what I figured. Given that I’m sitting at about 75% of climo at this point, I’m fine with being patient until discrete threats for MBY come into reliable range. Good thing is that we don’t really have to wait long. If a threat looks to miss, there should be another one on its heels that we can keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 As for this weekend-ish threat period, I’d like to see the GFS at least make a move today towards getting us snows. If we don’t see that today, then it’s getting a little too close to gametime and I’d be a little afraid that this one will slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 GFS h5 maps for the past 36 have been pretty inconsistent. Not typical for it lately. For me that’s a sign that any solution right now is pretty suspect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right.When the gfs says no....its usually no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: As for this weekend-ish threat period, I’d like to see the GFS at least make a move today towards getting us snows. If we don’t see that today, then it’s getting a little too close to gametime and I’d be a little afraid that this one will slip away. Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Regardless of snow no short supply of cold. Looks like deep winter for a long time to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 i'm kinda interested in that thursday system. looks sneaky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: Regardless of snow no short supply of cold. Looks like deep winter for a long time to come. idgaf about cold if there is no snow. i gotta walk/bike to class, lol. and stumble back home from the bar. Might as well be 70 if its not snowing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The GFS is irritating my soul right now. Hopefully Euro looks like RGEM and then I can rationalize chucking the GFS, although deep down, I know it's probably gonna end up right. When the gfs says no....its usually no If the GFS is right, it would be a disaster. But thankfully, it's likely confused with all that shit going on at H5. Changes every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i'm kinda interested in that thursday system. looks sneaky. Same Just now, NorthArlington101 said: idgaf about cold if there is no snow. i gotta walk/bike to class, lol. and stumble back home from the bar. Might as well be 70 if its not snowing 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: idgaf about cold if there is no snow. i gotta walk/bike to class, lol. and stumble back home from the bar. Might as well be 70 if its not snowing Yeah but it’s handy to have around when precip arrives. Looking at NA view it’s cold up there too…and looks aimed toward the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Keep talkin' dirty. I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like tracking big amplified storms running uphill nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I'm wondering if the models won't have an accurate idea of next weekend until yesterday's storm is out of the picture. Also, the GFS might just be waiting until 48 before game time like on Jan 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 CMC bringing it back a little. But it’s the CMC. The foreign models like this better. Might be their time to shine. Ami wrong on this, but isn’t this ss driven? Would the gfs not be in its area of strength if so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 One thing this winter is that everything seems to jump NW last minute and the GFS op has lead the way. Really impressed with it's handling on NS systems, and how NOAA/NWS has been using more recon flights to get better data into NWP for better lead times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I really like what I see down the line. Continental cold air factory appears to run unabated thru early Feb at least. We don't want a big hilly amplified pattern either. I saw some people posting ens mean maps like this a week ago and my first thought was cold/dry and not snow. IF ens means have it right, the PNA ridge is going to retrograde and turn the entire conus into a more broad/zonal trough with cold air wall to wall in Canada. With Feb wavelengths shortening and cold domes pushing hard against it, storm track could run WSW-ENE from the middle of the conus easterward I'm using the gefs for visual reference only. All ensembles have their own version. If we start getting attacked by shortwaves approaching from the WSW, I'm going to get pretty excited. I don't like big amplified storms running upholl nearly due north on approach. Too much can go wrong and volatility wreaks havoc. I like highway style storms that elongate and run along tracks more W-E than S-N. Hard to get a hecs that way but it makes it really easy to get 4-8" of all snow and no temp worries I agree with that last statement. But I do want one bomb cutter into tn/oh valley with single digit cad in place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: I'm wondering if the models won't have an accurate idea of next weekend until yesterday's storm is out of the picture. Also, the GFS might just be waiting until 48 before game time like on Jan 3rd. Ops are showing us that it's active, fast flow, and cold around. The time to jump on a solution is when everything downstream is out of the way and ops can focus on the same shortwave. Last few days had some seemingly similar solutions but the snow came from different digital shortwaves. Once 2 ops show snow the same way from the same shortwave, it's tracking time. Unfortunately it's prob not going to happen outside of 4 day or so leads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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