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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Keep enthusiasm realistic guys. This is the euro. Not exactly top of the line :lol:

Exactly.  It's gotten to the point where I have zero excitement when it's the only model showing something for us.  I woke up and saw the 0z run, yawned and went right back to sleep.

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs has been good. Also, to add to our confidence, if I’m not mistaken on both of the last two storms it has had the storm early, list it, and then brought it back. I know it did on yesterdays storm.

Yeah and it's not like it's shown a consistent solution since Saturday...I think it's still figuring it out

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Exactly.  It's gotten to the point where I have zero excitement when it's the only model showing something for us.  I woke up and saw the 0z run, yawned and went right back to sleep.

Otoh... I only jump into this game when it's ripe now. When you see my stupid avatar popping up you don't need models for the mid range. When I go totally dark and you still look at ops... I can't help that :lol:

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM looks better?  Kinda looks like it was gearing up for something decent this weekend at H5?

I haven't been following the details in here quite so much (with yesterday's event going on).  But how much does the Thursday potential influence or possibly impact anything for the weekend?  I actually didn't even think of Thursday until I read a bit in here yesterday!

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos

I like your excitement about 14 and 15. I really don’t remember specific storms those years, just that we had several hits, and some fairly big. Those were 2 great winters here, which is why, in my opinion,  so many people were disappointed in ‘16 when we only got 1 Storm (even though it was of epic proportions). I could be wrong, but I remember reading that we had blocking due to the displaced PV rather than a -NAO for much of 2014 and/or 2015. 

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17 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

FWIW, ICON moved closer to something for this weekend.  
 

image.thumb.png.bfd3d33af13c2ec07bde8868dad77c66.png

 

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup, was just about to post this.  Still not there, but H5 improved a bit.

All I looked for in the Icon was any trend to the NW, and we got it. That’s a good start to 12z.

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos

It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. :lol: All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow.

I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then…

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