Weather Will Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: lol 06z Euro Control is a monster hit for the entire LWX CWA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: lol 06z Euro Control is a monster hit for the entire LWX CWA 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Those ratios probably would be too low lol... 06z EPS Control has temps between 17 and 24 for just about everyone (S MD is in mid 20s)... pure cold smoke, so Kuchera would be ridiculous if there was one 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Keep enthusiasm realistic guys. This is the euro. Not exactly top of the line 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh good god yea! That’s a solid run!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep enthusiasm realistic guys. This is the euro. Not exactly top of the line Return of the King 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Those ratios probably would be too low lol... 06z EPS Control has temps between 17 and 24 for just about everyone (S MD is in mid 20s)... pure cold smoke, so Kuchera would be ridiculous if there was one EPS track would suggest a cold smoke event for inland areas , actually even coastal areas would cash in according to the EPS. But, it is early amd would like to see additional models jump onboard. However, the pattern does support a storm in this period, and the time frame after this as well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 No interest till the gfs gets on board 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Does the European control ever matter? I think it is notorious for 2 to 3 foot snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 7 hours ago, HighStakes said: Euro is a 4-8 inch storm Starting late Friday night through Saturday morning. Cold storm like last night's run. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 42 minutes ago, yoda said: lol 06z Euro Control is a monster hit for the entire LWX CWA I know you already know this but the control run should never really be used as guidance. It is used for perturbation in the individual ens members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep enthusiasm realistic guys. This is the euro. Not exactly top of the line And the euro control on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The times have really changed when the Euro shows a big storm less than 5 days out and nobody is excited until the GFS shows it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ji said: No interest till the gfs gets on board You aren't wrong. GFS has been taking the euro/eps to the cleaners this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: The times have really changed when the Euro shows a big storm less than 5 days out and nobody is excited until the GFS shows it. GFS is the old Euro from 5 years ago. CMC is the old GFS with a fantasy storm every run that usually doesn't materialize Euro is the old GFS and plays catchup to the others. Don't ask how we got here, but here we are in 2022. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Southern stream is involved on the gfs but phases too late. There is a backup plan showing up next week with a better trough alignment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance? The control is a very low resolution from what I recall: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/medium-range-forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I think we can all agree that the GEFS should not be used for this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The control is a very low resolution from what I recall: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/medium-range-forecasts Yeah isn't it the unpertubed (same initial conditions as the OP) but run at the resolution the pertubed ensemble members are run at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: And the euro control on top of that. But it’s run from the same initial conditions as the op, and the fact they generally resemble each others’ results (excepting snow totals) on day 5 can’t be ignored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I think we can all agree that the GEFS should not be used for this storm. Lol, love to hear the reasoning here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance? It shows snow. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: But it’s run from the same initial conditions as the op, and the fact they generally resemble each others’ results (excepting snow totals) on day 5 can’t be ignored. Yes, and EPS resolution is still very high relative to other global operational models and especially other ensemble systems. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, love to hear the reasoning here. GEFS was terrible for this weekend. Doesn’t mean it will be for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 "Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance? It’s one member of the ensemble. It has the same initial conditions as the op and can be used to diagnose the impacts of the differing resolution between the ensembles and the op. I don’t think there’s any reason to give it any more weight than any other member of the ensembles, but I’d be interested hearing otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Does the European control ever matter? I think it is notorious for 2 to 3 foot snows. At this particular range it matters more than usual. The control starts off with identical data as the op and runs at Ensemble resolution. Inside of 6 days or so, the control can be more accurate than the op... caveat.... at times... Is this one of those times? Beep bop boop don't know. However, it should absolutely not disregarded because it's "the control". All good data matters 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 hours ago, yoda said: I mean... this is nice already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I missed the cmc, does it still have our storm? I, like Ji, am not ready to get excited until the NEW king GFS has a storm. It really has nailed the last 2 storms days in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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