StormchaserChuck! Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Has anyone noticed how negative the NAO gets here in 3 days? We could see something coming out of this one west+PNA and -NAO, +AAM. I like it for the coming storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 AO is positive but whew, I think these other storms are coming north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Well that certainly wakes up the salivary glands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Plain English (Middle or Modern), please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well that certainly wakes up the salivary glands That was good? I was lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That was good? I was lost. So did I...but all I needed to see was "GEFS indicating potential for a more amplified cyclone", lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So did I...but all I needed to see was "GEFS indicating potential for a more amplified cyclone", lol Basically if we want a storm, we want to see an amplified ridge over Alaska and deeper trough in the Central US (he uses hour +144). He thinks the overall pattern might support a better storm than the GEFS mean is indicating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Thursday looks to be trending slightly better in the GFS, just toggling back a few runs. Stats padder to keep our heater alive: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Has a weekend storm but it’s suppressed and on the Carolina coastline this run. Okay with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Has a weekend storm but it’s suppressed and on the Carolina coastline this run. Okay with me. would not take too much of an adjustment at range. Verbatim goes negative too late by a little bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 would not take too much of an adjustment at range. Verbatim goes negative too late by a little bit.500mb changes are hilarious run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Yup, wild run to run changes on the GFS. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Gfs has a beatdown coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Yup, wild run to run changes on the GFS. I like it. Feel like feb is going to be mid 70s to low 80s. Time is ticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs has a beatdown coming Don't think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Gfs has a beatdown coming Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't think so He was talking about our hopes and dreams. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 It sounds cliche, but there are so many windows within this window, but we don’t even know exactly when those windows will open. Vorts flying around all over the place, cold air, dogs and cats living together…it’s a pretty fun, weeks-long ride, and it’s really just started. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Has a weekend storm but it’s suppressed and on the Carolina coastline this run. Okay with me. The 0z GEFS improved a bit for this time period. There’s a signal for a coastal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 00z ggem looks interesting for Thursday... just misses east for weekend but is very close ETA: Looks like it would be Thursday morning... but would be rain with 2mT in mid 30s but still... close to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Euro looking pretty good at 500 from TT 96h map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Well all models seem locked in for the Carolinas for now. Amazing how good they have been agreeing when inside 5-6 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well all models seem locked in for the Carolinas for now. Amazing how good they have been agreeing when inside 5-6 days. I'm not sure you can say "locked in"...I mean we just saw jumps back and forth today, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Euro is a 4-8 inch storm Starting late Friday night through Saturday morning. Cold storm like last night's run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well all models seem locked in for the Carolinas for now. Amazing how good they have been agreeing when inside 5-6 days. Ehh.. euro gives us 4-8” or so. Not exactly locked in given the spread between models and the differences in 500mb evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The general evolution towards a slider is great news. Certainly better than the enormous cutter with a wrapped WCB we were stuck with this time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I mean... this is nice already 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 General thoughts on the upcoming period from Mount Holly.. For Friday through Sunday...As the aformentioned upper-level trough continues to amplify its way into the East, our sensible weather will first be dominated by arctic high pressure centered across southeastern Canada and New England. A rather cold air mass is forecast to be in place, however incoming upper-level energy looks to initiate a wave along an offshore baroclinic zone. There is typically more uncertainty especially the details and timing this far out, however the overall pattern looks to favor some sort of cyclogenesis near or offshore of the East Coast over the weekend. We continue to maintain some chance PoPs for now in the Friday through Saturday time frame, however some guidance is slower with the storm development and delays it until Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 FWIW, both the 06z NAM/RGEM kick out the energy in the SW and don't hold any of it back at 84 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now