Steve25 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 At least it's going to be cold. I can always take comfort in that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Well that's interesting 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d rather see a cutter in a pattern like this. If it stays a cutter then you get the front end snow then sleet then freezing rain because there’s often cad. A slider can easily stay a slider in a cold pattern. Sure you would where your yard is lol. I'll take suppressed at range and will it north for a few inches of fluff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sure you would where your yard is lol. I'll take suppressed at range and will it north for a few inches of fluff. I was about to say...he has a western bias, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12z EPS is more GEFS-like for the potential event next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z EPS is more GEFS-like for the potential event next weekend. Is that good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, Ji said: 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 2003 2010 2016....its time As long as continental airmasses keep dropping down from Canada and the trough axis keeps wobbling back and forth to the east and west of us, it's possible to get a big storm. The ingredients are constantly flying around near each other. If they are going to line up, ops will figure it out D4 or less. Beyond that is all shotgun blasts from guidance. I'm a big believer in streaks or compressed favorable periods around here. There's def some truth to "it just wants to snow" when we get hot. Enso and any other thing doesn't seem to matter at that point. Sure looks like that's what's going on this year. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Mine is thru the first week of Feb minimum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Is that good or bad? Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: As long as continental airmasses keep dropping down from Canada and the trough axis keeps wobbling back and forth to the east and west of us, it's possible to get a big storm. The ingredients are constantly flying around near each other. If they are going to line up, ops will figure it out D4 or less. Beyond that is all shotgun blasts from guidance. I'm a big believer in streaks or compressed favorable periods around here. There's def some truth to "it just wants to snow" when we get hot. Enso and any other thing doesn't seem to matter at that point. Sure looks like that's what's going on this year. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Mine is thru the first week of Feb minimum. With the pattern so progressive/ no real blocking I am pulling for multiple well timed light to moderate events over a big storm. Not that what I want matters lol but less risky for my location, although with the amped western ridge and displaced TPV, the tendency for deep trough over the east at times could result in a big offshore coastal scraper at some point something like Jan 2018. Beach chase III. If this pattern does persist into early Feb we might also build some significant ice on the inland rivers and bay- have not seen that since 2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: With the pattern so progressive/ no real blocking I am pulling for multiple well timed light to moderate events over a big storm. Not that what I want matters lol but less risky for my location, although with the amped western ridge and displaced TPV, the tendency for deep trough over the east at times could result in a big offshore coastal scraper at some point something like Jan 2018. Beach chase III. If this pattern does persist into early Feb we might also build some significant ice on the inland rivers and bay- have not seen that since 2015. You've mentioned the coastal scraper...but you don't think a legit costal-costal can happen? Or just the least likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I couldn’t care less that the ops are showing a suppressed storm. Actually, I prefer it, and felt exactly the same for today’s thing. Lots of time for things to play out…and no need for a thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You've mentioned the coastal scraper...but you don't think a legit costal-costal can happen? Or just the least likely? Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Speaking of the week of the 24th- the GEFS also wants to develop a transient east based 'block' during that period. Not seeing that at all on the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation. I know you're longing at the opportunity to drive to the beach and view another coastal blizzard but I prefer not to. Let us hope things change slightly by the week of the 24th . There appears to be the possibility of a wave breaking event that could cause a transient negative NAO, if so, maybe the coast of plain can get some sort of a moderate all snow event . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation. Ah okay. But man why do ya WANT a scraper tho? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah okay. But man why do ya WANT a scraper tho? Lol There are degrees of everything. That offshore tracking 'bomb cyclone' in 2018 was an all out blizzard on the immediate coast, but still produced a moderate 6" storm at my house. Obviously I chose to drive an hour to experience the blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 FWIW, and it's not much, NAM H5 changed, no longer matching the GFS like the 12z NAM. Doesn't hold the baja low back and moves it right along. But using the 84 hour NAM is like using the 384 hour GFS. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 At what range should we be looking at the Baja low to get moving? 60-84 hours from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: There are degrees of everything. That offshore tracking 'bomb cyclone' in 2018 was an all out blizzard on the immediate coast, but still produced a moderate 6" storm at my house. Obviously I chose to drive an hour to experience the blizzard. One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. I stayed at Rehoboth beach in DE. I think the total was around 14" but so much drifting I couldn't tell. It was epic though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, dseagull said: One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. Is the Stugots still docked there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Is the Stugots still docked there? Way back in 2011 or 2012, or 2013 they were. I should know, but haven't had them pop up on my ais system for quite a few years. (Time flies) I may have cancelled them on my vessel's ais recieving signals to avoid clutter though. Sorry, I'll take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 That was that storm I believe 4 hours from completion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: At what range should we be looking at the Baja low to get moving? 60-84 hours from now? That's roughly the time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, dseagull said: One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. Lived out in ocean City New Jersey for that storm. Incredible getting 16 inches of cold powder considering how quick of a mover it was. Still to this day it had the strongest winds I’ve ever experienced in a snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18z RGEM also trended away from holding back the baja s/w 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, coastal front said: Lived out in ocean City New Jersey for that storm. Incredible getting 16 inches of cold powder considering how quick of a mover it was. Still to this day it had the strongest winds I’ve ever experienced in a snowstorm. Was an experience. I had 4-6 foot drifts along the entire bay where I live. Very difficult storm to gauge an accurate snow total. I gave up on my 3 boards as soon as we had sustained 35 knot wind. Sorry for the hijack and glasses raised to another system like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: There are degrees of everything. That offshore tracking 'bomb cyclone' in 2018 was an all out blizzard on the immediate coast, but still produced a moderate 6" storm at my house. Obviously I chose to drive an hour to experience the blizzard. I think coastal scrapers are to you what a close cutter is to @WinterWxLuvr...But I'm biased because both of those skunk my yard, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 18z RGEM also trended away from holding back the baja s/w Dumb question but we want the energy to be ejected correct instead of held back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Beach Snow said: Dumb question but we want the energy to be ejected correct instead of held back? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now