January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

 

Super cold  is  on the way.

 

I wouldn't bet on it, but there is always hope for a short window of oppurtunity.

 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

This is not so exciting if true in the long range. 

 

[osfan24]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think late last January through much of February was solid winter for us. Insane gradient obviously in snow outcome, but it was a hair breadth (or about 3-5F) away from being a very memorable stretch. 

Last year was agonizing. So close a few times, especially the two big ones if I'm remembering correctly, and coming off some dud years, too.

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Idk, but I kind of liked it. 

Haha, me too!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The winter from this point on last year was a dud?

My apologies. I mean to say 2018 - 2019 and I've gone back and corrected my post.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

My apologies. I mean to say 2018 - 2019 and I've gone back and corrected my post.

But that was a good winter also. Decent anyway. Did you mean 19-20? If so, I agree. That one was awful.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

You don't see the off the charts -PNA continuing or rebuilding and pumping the SER?  I mean how do we know its not going to get stuck D15.  Next week looked cold last week.  I'm just picking your brain. 

Totally understand. Based off other posters here and Twitter (HM, Eric Webb), the PNA appears to be heading to a less than hostile set up past Jan 1 - 4 timeframe. If this kept getting kicked back to the point where it would be showing this transition past Jan 10 - 15. I'm not saying this is going to be Winter 2009 - 2010, but you can see on the GFS and the Canadian how the gulf opens up a bit and storms aren't ejecting out of Denver into the Great Lakes. We are at least standing a shot at some frozen.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But that was a good winter also. Decent anyway. Did you mean 19-20? If so, I agree. That one was awful.

That's the one. My age is starting to show.

[H2O]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The winter from this point on last year was a dud?

Yes.  For those near I-95 it blew monkey balls

[osfan24]

The big storm last winter was cool because it snowed for such a long time and I can't ever remember almost continuous snow for three days. But most of the time it was extremely light rates and of course areas northeast of us were getting smoked, so the realization you were so close to something big takes some of the fun away.

[Weather Will]

1 in 30 chance of a snowstorm over the next 11 days according to WB 12Z GEFS.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

1 in 30 chance of a snowstorm over the next 11 days according to WB 12Z GEFS.

Snow STORM … I agree. Snow … a few chances.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS.

[nj2va]

I don’t have a paid model subscription (no point given the lack of chances right now) but the 12z GEFS on TT made me a bit interested in New Year’s weekend for the mountains.  SER becomes muted just enough which allows 850s to be BN, 2m normal, and decent 24H precip for this far out.  

[psuhoffman]

I’m generally pessimistic until we see base state changes in the pac. I see a lot of similarities to 2019 when guidance tried again and again to progress the pattern in a logical way but the western pac base state continually thwarted it.  That’s a pretty logical mistake for the NWP. It’s important to understand why they are wrong sometimes.  Fool me once shame on you…

 

That said there will be fluctuations. The guidance is weakening the NW pac vortex in January. That would help. The location of the pac ridge isn’t likely to change much. It’s well telleconnected to the Nina and western pac base state and TNH combo.  However, we can do good if the pac ridge is less amplified and broader. It’s plenty poleward but it’s way too sharp which is digging the pna trough way too much.  
 

Even in 2019 there were some instances when the western trough shifted east just enough to get chances with waves.
 

On a more specific front, one way I could see an opportunity in early January would be a scenery similar to the storm in Jan 2019.   After the likely cutter we could get enough cold stuck under the block/50/50 for something to attack from the west.  The ridge is far enough west for a time to maybe allow enough space for something to squeeze through.  Wouldn’t be an amplified system but neither was that 2019 one.  That’s one way to get something in this coming pattern. 

[HighStakes]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m generally pessimistic until we see base state changes in the pac. I see a lot of similarities to 2019 when guidance tried again and again to progress the pattern in a logical way but the western pac base state continually thwarted it.  That’s a pretty logical mistake for the NWP. It’s important to understand why they are wrong sometimes.  Fool me once shame on you…

 

That said there will be fluctuations. The guidance is weakening the NW pac vortex in January. That would help. The location of the pac ridge isn’t likely to change much. It’s well telleconnected to the Nina and western pac base state and TNH combo.  However, we can do good if the pac ridge is less amplified and broader. It’s plenty poleward but it’s way too sharp which is digging the pna trough way too much.  
 

Even in 2019 there were some instances when the western trough shifted east just enough to get chances with waves.
 

On a more specific front, one way I could see an opportunity in early January would be a scenery similar to the storm in Jan 2019.   After the likely cutter we could get enough cold stuck under the block/50/50 for something to attack from the west.  The ridge is far enough west for a time to maybe allow enough space for something to squeeze through.  Wouldn’t be an amplified system but neither was that 2019 one.  That’s one way to get something in this coming pattern. 

If I'm not mistaken the January 2019 storm hit right as the MJO went into phase 8. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

If I'm not mistaken the January 2019 storm hit right as the MJO went into phase 8. 

It was heading towards 8 but I can’t remember if it actually ever made it. Very similar stall/death as now with the MC warm sst fighting the mjo progression. 

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Idk, but I kind of liked it. 

We live in a different universe than those to the east when it comes to snowfall. It is what it is. 

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, frd said:

 

This is not so exciting if true in the long range. 

 

Yeah. that is probably pretty much winter over if it is right. 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

but the western pac base state continually thwarted it.

This. We are probably in a lot of trouble. No Aleutian low for the entire winter is a death nail IMO. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

This. We are probably in a lot of trouble. No Aleutian low for the entire winter is a death nail IMO. 

That damn anticyclone over the Aleutians is like the storm on Jupiter...it literally hasn't budged and isn't forecast to budge any time soon. Maybe if we r lucky we can get the ridging to extend poleward in the EPO but thats a crapshoot at this point. Posted elsewhere and I realize the SSWEs are generally hi lat based wrt shifting tellies, but maybe the forecast warming up at 10mb can at least shuffle things around. I would roll the dice with it even given the possibility the PAC degrades even worse but just to get the chance to shuffle it around is worth a try at this point.

[Cobalt]

The Euro weeklies are.. not exactly the most enticing. Somewhat serviceable for the first week of January I suppose, but coupled with the incredibly persistent -PNA, it looks like the waning neg NAO results in the SE ridge really flexing its muscles after that point. Looks like a less favorable Atlantic has been the trend for the past few days in the LR. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That damn anticyclone over the Aleutians is like the storm on Jupiter...it literally hasn't budged and isn't forecast to budge any time soon. Maybe if we r lucky we can get the ridging to extend poleward in the EPO but thats a crapshoot at this point. Posted elsewhere and I realize the SSWEs are generally hi lat based wrt shifting tellies, but maybe the forecast warming up at 10mb can at least shuffle things around. I would roll the dice with it even given the possibility the PAC degrades even worse but just to get the chance to shuffle it around is worth a try at this point.

Some hints at the very end of the gefs/eps of the pac becoming more favorable. Not great but serviceable. Vortex in NW pac weakens. Central pac ridge becomes less amplified and extends poleward. You can see the pna trough is digging less in response. It’s a look that could allow cold to press east more assuming we keep a serviceable look up top. Too far out to worry about details. 

[psuhoffman]

The pac ridge isn’t going to go away. That’s a Nina constant and it’s fed by the pac base state on top of the Nina.  But we need it to broaden and be less sharp.  Then the western trough could press cold shots east v digging down the west coast. 

[poolz1]

Monday morning at 12z with precipitation approaching...Using MRB 

18z GFS 34/24

18z Euro 39/31

 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

the western trough could press cold shots east

Basically a pray for timing winter. We do so well in those. Merry Christmas all. Snow is great. But it means nothing in the grand scheme of life. Enjoy the time with your family everyone. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Some hints at the very end of the gefs/eps of the pac becoming more favorable. Not great but serviceable. Vortex in NW pac weakens. Central pac ridge becomes less amplified and extends poleward. You can see the pna trough is digging less in response. It’s a look that could allow cold to press east more assuming we keep a serviceable look up top. Too far out to worry about details. 

I posted about the weakening Okhotsk vortex advertised on guidance this morning. It clearly plays a big role in sustaining a strong NPAC blocking ridge(wave breaking), so some weakening should occur if that trough dissipates. Seeing that in the ens means now, and in response the western US trough looks less 'diggy' and seems to broaden and expand eastward some with time. I am still not sure this is going to make a huge difference here without a shift in the tropical forcing further away from the MC. We really need the ridge to weaken a tad, shift east some, and ideally expand poleward into the EPO domain. It's a real pain in the ass. Seeing some slight improvement advertised on the means but difficult to say how meaningful/sustainable it ends up being wrt to sensible weather here. In addition the negative NAO is looking somewhat less impressive in the LR. It's a wait and see game as usual when we have a pretty shitty pattern in place.

[StormchaserChuck!]

18z GFS ensembles went really cold in the long range

[Maestrobjwa]

43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Basically a pray for timing winter. We do so well in those. Merry Christmas all. Snow is great. But it means nothing in the grand scheme of life. Enjoy the time with your family everyone. 

If it were possible, I'd repost this on top of every page. I think we forget this like...a lot!

[Ji]

Basically a pray for timing winter. We do so well in those. Merry Christmas all. Snow is great. But it means nothing in the grand scheme of life. Enjoy the time with your family everyone. 

That's pretty much white flag language