January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Amped]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

CMC

CMC ens

Keeps it south of us but keeps us in the game.  Exactly where we want to see it the next 3 days..

[stormtracker]

So far, Euro moving the Baja energy out, unlike the GFS.  I thought the Euro was the one with the bias of hanging shit back around baja

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, Euro moving the Baja energy out, unlike the GFS.  I thought the Euro was the one with the bias of hanging shit back around baja

Not since the upgrade a couple years ago. However, whatever they tweaked to fix that bias seems to have screwed up the old Euro wheelhouse 3-7 day forecasts. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Beach Snow said:

Out to 141 so far and very suppressed not sure it’s gonna do it on this run

 

It's not.  More GFS-ish.  Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at.   Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time.

[BornAgain13]

Looks like the 12z EURO lost the storm....

[WinterWxLuvr]

Mere mention of a thread killed it lol

[Ji]

It's not.  More GFS-ish.  Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at.   Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time.

Garbage model man. Where is the old euro

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's not.  More GFS-ish.  Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at.   Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time.

Garbage model man. Where is the old euro

GFS is king.

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Mere mention of a thread killed it lol

It's dead Jim.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's not.  More GFS-ish.  Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at.   Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time.

Garbage model man. Where is the old euro

I'm not going to down it, still gold standard..but the GFS has been leading the way this winter.  I dunno.  

[Ji]

I'm not going to down it, still gold standard..but the GFS has been leading the way this winter.  I dunno.  

Its constant playing catchup or over amplifying storm 6 days out. If the gfs dosnet have it...and the euro does...to me its a non storm

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not going to down it, still gold standard..but the GFS has been leading the way this winter.  I dunno.  

GFS is the best model at handling the PJ. Nina has a pronounced and active PJ. That probably has something to do with it.

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's not.  More GFS-ish.  Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at.   Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time.

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. 

It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... 

Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 

[Ji]

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. 
It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... 
Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 

2003 2010 2016....its time

[HighStakes]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. 

It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... 

Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 

Agree with you about big storm potential but who knows. If we're lucky enough to get 1 or 2 of these to hit they scream moderate events which is fine. They certainly would favor very cold storms. This was an impressively cold Euro run. 

[jayyy]

I’d much rather see a storm slide south of us 5/6 days out on the models than be in the bullseye. We’ve seen this song and dance too many times before. 

[clueless]

If we’re talking preferences I’d like something simple. Some no brainer overrunning event where we get 4 inches of fluff. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I’d much rather see a storm slide south of us 5/6 days out on the models than be in the bullseye. We’ve seen this song and dance too many times before. 

I’d rather see a cutter in a pattern like this. If it stays a cutter then you get the front end snow then sleet then freezing rain because there’s often cad. A slider can easily stay a slider in a cold pattern.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. 
It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... 
Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 

2003 2010 2016....its time

I mean that pattern is either 6 OR 7 years...before this month I had just assumed it would NEXT winter if that trend were still alive. But given that we actually have cold and snow this month...hey, ya never know!

[Steve25]

At least it's going to be cold. I can always take comfort in that. 

[yoda]

Well that's interesting 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d rather see a cutter in a pattern like this. If it stays a cutter then you get the front end snow then sleet then freezing rain because there’s often cad. A slider can easily stay a slider in a cold pattern.

Sure you would where your yard is lol. I'll take suppressed at range and will it north for a few inches of fluff. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sure you would where your yard is lol. I'll take suppressed at range and will it north for a few inches of fluff. 

I was about to say...he has a western bias, lol

[CAPE]

12z EPS is more GEFS-like for the potential event next weekend.

[BornAgain13]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS is more GEFS-like for the potential event next weekend.

Is that good or bad?

[Bob Chill]

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. 
It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... 
Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 

2003 2010 2016....its time

As long as continental airmasses keep dropping down from Canada and the trough axis keeps wobbling back and forth to the east and west of us, it's possible to get a big storm. The ingredients are constantly flying around near each other. If they are going to line up, ops will figure it out D4 or less. Beyond that is all shotgun blasts from guidance.

I'm a big believer in streaks or compressed favorable periods around here. There's def some truth to "it just wants to snow" when we get hot. Enso and any other thing doesn't seem to matter at that point. Sure looks like that's what's going on this year. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Mine is thru the first week of Feb minimum. 

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is that good or bad?

 Bad.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

As long as continental airmasses keep dropping down from Canada and the trough axis keeps wobbling back and forth to the east and west of us, it's possible to get a big storm. The ingredients are constantly flying around near each other. If they are going to line up, ops will figure it out D4 or less. Beyond that is all shotgun blasts from guidance.

I'm a big believer in streaks or compressed favorable periods around here. There's def some truth to "it just wants to snow" when we get hot. Enso and any other thing doesn't seem to matter at that point. Sure looks like that's what's going on this year. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Mine is thru the first week of Feb minimum. 

With the pattern so progressive/ no real blocking I am pulling for multiple well timed light to moderate events over a big storm. Not that what I want matters lol but less risky for my location, although with the amped western ridge and displaced TPV, the tendency for deep trough over the east at times could result in a big offshore coastal scraper at some point something like Jan 2018. Beach chase III. If this pattern does persist into early Feb we might also build some significant ice on the inland rivers and bay- have not seen that since 2015.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With the pattern so progressive/ no real blocking I am pulling for multiple well timed light to moderate events over a big storm. Not that what I want matters lol but less risky for my location, although with the amped western ridge and displaced TPV, the tendency for deep trough over the east at times could result in a big offshore coastal scraper at some point something like Jan 2018. Beach chase III. If this pattern does persist into early Feb we might also build some significant ice on the inland rivers and bay- have not seen that since 2015.

 

You've mentioned the coastal scraper...but you don't think a legit costal-costal can happen? Or just the least likely?

[mattie g]

I couldn’t care less that the ops are showing a suppressed storm. Actually, I prefer it, and felt exactly the same for today’s thing.

Lots of time for things to play out…and no need for a thread.