jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12z GEFS took the proverbial “step back” for next weekend’s possible storm. Supports OTS/southern slider solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GEFS took the proverbial “step back” for next weekend’s possible storm. Supports OTS/southern slider solution. Given what this storm did from it's trek from the long range to the medium range - I'd rather have that for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Chuck STOP!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Chuck STOP!! This 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think it would be a fail if we can't get another warning level event and/or 10-12" of smaller events before this month is out. All the waves flying around...we'd have to strike out like 2-3 times, smh Like as we track this week I hope we have something else to track after it in case it flops, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Wonder if it will be warmer Spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18-24 hours of snowfall for us on the GGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 CMC CMC ens 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Sorry @Weather Will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 ThisGive him on own thread for ALL his posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: CMC CMC ens 20 inches is Hampton Roads is weenie suicide. But we all know being bullseyed right now is not what you want. I like where we sit right now. Hope the euro holds and GFs joins aboard soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: CMC CMC ens Keeps it south of us but keeps us in the game. Exactly where we want to see it the next 3 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 So far, Euro moving the Baja energy out, unlike the GFS. I thought the Euro was the one with the bias of hanging shit back around baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So far, Euro moving the Baja energy out, unlike the GFS. I thought the Euro was the one with the bias of hanging shit back around baja Not since the upgrade a couple years ago. However, whatever they tweaked to fix that bias seems to have screwed up the old Euro wheelhouse 3-7 day forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Beach Snow said: Out to 141 so far and very suppressed not sure it’s gonna do it on this run It's not. More GFS-ish. Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at. Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Looks like the 12z EURO lost the storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Mere mention of a thread killed it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 It's not. More GFS-ish. Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at. Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time.Garbage model man. Where is the old euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not. More GFS-ish. Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at. Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time. Garbage model man. Where is the old euro GFS is king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Mere mention of a thread killed it lol It's dead Jim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not. More GFS-ish. Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at. Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time. Garbage model man. Where is the old euro I'm not going to down it, still gold standard..but the GFS has been leading the way this winter. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I'm not going to down it, still gold standard..but the GFS has been leading the way this winter. I dunno. Its constant playing catchup or over amplifying storm 6 days out. If the gfs dosnet have it...and the euro does...to me its a non storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not going to down it, still gold standard..but the GFS has been leading the way this winter. I dunno. GFS is the best model at handling the PJ. Nina has a pronounced and active PJ. That probably has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not. More GFS-ish. Well, the Euro blizzard last night was fun to look at. Good thing is, we got pleeenty of time. A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 2003 2010 2016....its time 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. Agree with you about big storm potential but who knows. If we're lucky enough to get 1 or 2 of these to hit they scream moderate events which is fine. They certainly would favor very cold storms. This was an impressively cold Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I’d much rather see a storm slide south of us 5/6 days out on the models than be in the bullseye. We’ve seen this song and dance too many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 If we’re talking preferences I’d like something simple. Some no brainer overrunning event where we get 4 inches of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: I’d much rather see a storm slide south of us 5/6 days out on the models than be in the bullseye. We’ve seen this song and dance too many times before. I’d rather see a cutter in a pattern like this. If it stays a cutter then you get the front end snow then sleet then freezing rain because there’s often cad. A slider can easily stay a slider in a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ji said: 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see. 2003 2010 2016....its time I mean that pattern is either 6 OR 7 years...before this month I had just assumed it would NEXT winter if that trend were still alive. But given that we actually have cold and snow this month...hey, ya never know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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