stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: It’s dumb because all it does it cause heartache and meltdowns among a large group of certain posters if it ends up failing. And all that does is muck the place up and get people arguing again. There’s nothing wrong with - and I’d argue it’s much better - discussing a six-day yonder threat window in this thread. If we get within four days and it’s still looking good, then fire up a thread. My opinion and all, of course. Thank you. And this is exactly the method I follow for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: 0z Euro has a bit of a transient block, which is the best we can ask for up top right now, so I’m going to remain incredibly jittery unless we can get this thing under four days. For the next few days, I want to see this thing ocsillate between a decent hit and sliding south. This this has a few runs of going too far NW and it’s light out for those of us in the corridor. From looking at the latest GEFS and EPS, I think the bigger risk at this point is that the trough doesn’t dig enough and this slides off to the south and we just get a glancing hit (or none at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Next January will definitely be -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 days is an eternity in weather. 48 hours is a solid window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. Yeah, I've never understood it. If something seems like a legit threat, start a thread for it. If it falls apart, people will just stop posting about it. Not that complicated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. Yeah, it's pretty stupid honestly. Like you said, it's not as if the models or the atmosphere "listens" to MA weenies and says "oh, they started a thread too early, let's screw them over!!" I can see why SNE might tend to start storm threads earlier simply due to their climatology and they have obviously more leeway in terms of setups for such things. Here, it's kinda silly to start threads really early not due to "superstition", but because we typically are in a more tentative setup and it's better to wait for a bit more information/detail. Otherwise you end up with a bunch of BS commentary going on as things waver back and forth. ETA: The only times I recall starting threads relatively earlier are for the big events (Feb. 2010, Jan. 2016). But that's because at the time there was such a strong agreement and signal across essentially all models and ensembles, so it made sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, jaydreb said: From looking at the latest GEFS and EPS, I think the bigger risk at this point is that the trough doesn’t dig enough and this slides off to the south and we just get a glancing hit (or none at all). We should go back to a week ago and see the comments to today’s storm. Of course every setup is different but we basically said the same thing last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 IMO, figuring out what happens near Baja California is key. The 6z gfs is a miss because it cuts off and leaves energy behind there. FWIW, the 12z NAM would've been a miss as well. Leaves energy behind. The 6z euro would have been good most likely. Very similar to 0z does not leave energy behind at 90 hours. Only 84-90 hours out to figuring it out. Something has to give! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: We should go back to a week ago and see the comments to today’s storm. Of course every setup is different but we basically said the same thing last week. I always welcome a storm that looks suppressed on guidance until even the short-term -- a true snowstorm for the Carolinas is so rare and Virginia usually reaps a lot of the benefits. Anyway, 06z GEFS. Right where I want it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I always welcome a storm that looks suppressed on guidance until even the short-term -- a true snowstorm for the Carolinas is so rare and Virginia usually reaps a lot of the benefits. Anyway, 06z GEFS. Right where I want it. True but this is what it looked like the run before. Anyway, this is all moot since we’ll get a new run in an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. I mean, yeah, I joke about it, it's fun but I'm started to believe that people really believe threads jinx a storm. On a science based forum. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Yeah, makes you question what is science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean, yeah, I joke about it, it's fun but I'm started to believe that people really believe threads jinx a storm. On a science based forum. For me it has nothing to do with a jinx and everything to do with just being way too premature. I feel the storm threads should be there for when there's strong consensus between the models, or realistically around 3 days before a potential storm. With the way the posts fly in here, 3 days would give plenty of tracking and discussion. Like right now the discussion in here is that all possibilities are still very much on the table. Until that changes to something a little more concrete, I think the storm thread should hold off, just logically speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: For me it has nothing to do with a jinx and everything to do with just being way too premature. I feel the storm threads should be there for when there's strong consensus between the models, or realistically around 3 days before a potential storm. With the way the posts fly in here, 3 days would give plenty of tracking and discussion. Like right now the discussion in here is that all possibilities are still very much on the table. Until that changes to something a little more concrete, I think the storm thread should hold off, just logically speaking. That's why I said 4 days max. It fine to discuss it even before then to separate it from other threats. We're already talking about the storm threat beyond 4 days in this thread. Moving the discussion into another thread, same discussion, different thread is harmless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: IMO, figuring out what happens near Baja California is key. The 6z gfs is a miss because it cuts off and leaves energy behind there. FWIW, the 12z NAM would've been a miss as well. Leaves energy behind. The 6z euro would have been good most likely. Very similar to 0z does not leave energy behind at 90 hours. Only 84-90 hours out to figuring it out. Something has to give! What time frame are you talking? Because comparing the NAM to the other models that have the storm, there's no way to tell if the baja low is gonna cut off yet at that time frame. I could be looking at the wrong thing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Yeah, GFS cutting it off again near baja. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What time frame are you talking? Because comparing the NAM to the other models that have the storm, there's no way to tell if the baja low is gonna cut off yet at that time frame. I could be looking at the wrong thing too. compare h5 84 hours gfs to h5 84 hours NAM. Then see what happens on the gfs. You can surmise the nam was heading in the same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I cant really see 3-4 weeks.. guess they are going with climo and persistent +PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 With all that shit going on at H5 on the GFS, one of these matches have gotta light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 50/50 low 582dm on the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 ^West coast swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Look at that Pacific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 51 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's why I said 4 days max. It fine to discuss it even before then to separate it from other threats. We're already talking about the storm threat beyond 4 days in this thread. Moving the discussion into another thread, same discussion, different thread is harmless. It is pretty comical in not the funniest way that we can't start threads far in advance. I mean the avg age here has to be in the upper 30s at least. But we simply can't have a clean and focused discussion about a possible wx event 4-5+ days in advance. Instead, because our area has always been and will always be dicey with storms, the storm threads become devoid of good analysis and unreadable every 6-12 hours. The pile-on party of despair and bad posts phenomena is an unstoppable snowball. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 CMC still has the storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 gem still looks good for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The potential next weekend reminds me an awful lot of how we got multiple ok storms in JF 2014. A few of those strong waves running boundaries were modeled ok pretty far in advance. The progressive nature of the flow will jump things around by default but we're seeing a little bit of consistency show up 6 days out. Today's storm was well modeled that far in advance. We'll see 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The potential next weekend reminds me an awful lot of how we got multiple ok storms in JF 2014. A few of those strong waves running boundaries were modeled ok pretty far in advance. The progressive nature of the flow will jump things around by default but we're seeing a little bit of consistency show up 6 days out. Today's storm was well modeled that far in advance. We'll see as I said before key thing to look out for is what happens out west. The energy does not cut off, it phases with the northern stream ala CMC and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The Pacific is more like 2015 than anything else. Look what we do in the Pacific before Strong Nino I dont know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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