stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. I mean, yeah, I joke about it, it's fun but I'm started to believe that people really believe threads jinx a storm. On a science based forum. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Yeah, makes you question what is science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean, yeah, I joke about it, it's fun but I'm started to believe that people really believe threads jinx a storm. On a science based forum. For me it has nothing to do with a jinx and everything to do with just being way too premature. I feel the storm threads should be there for when there's strong consensus between the models, or realistically around 3 days before a potential storm. With the way the posts fly in here, 3 days would give plenty of tracking and discussion. Like right now the discussion in here is that all possibilities are still very much on the table. Until that changes to something a little more concrete, I think the storm thread should hold off, just logically speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: For me it has nothing to do with a jinx and everything to do with just being way too premature. I feel the storm threads should be there for when there's strong consensus between the models, or realistically around 3 days before a potential storm. With the way the posts fly in here, 3 days would give plenty of tracking and discussion. Like right now the discussion in here is that all possibilities are still very much on the table. Until that changes to something a little more concrete, I think the storm thread should hold off, just logically speaking. That's why I said 4 days max. It fine to discuss it even before then to separate it from other threats. We're already talking about the storm threat beyond 4 days in this thread. Moving the discussion into another thread, same discussion, different thread is harmless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: IMO, figuring out what happens near Baja California is key. The 6z gfs is a miss because it cuts off and leaves energy behind there. FWIW, the 12z NAM would've been a miss as well. Leaves energy behind. The 6z euro would have been good most likely. Very similar to 0z does not leave energy behind at 90 hours. Only 84-90 hours out to figuring it out. Something has to give! What time frame are you talking? Because comparing the NAM to the other models that have the storm, there's no way to tell if the baja low is gonna cut off yet at that time frame. I could be looking at the wrong thing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Yeah, GFS cutting it off again near baja. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What time frame are you talking? Because comparing the NAM to the other models that have the storm, there's no way to tell if the baja low is gonna cut off yet at that time frame. I could be looking at the wrong thing too. compare h5 84 hours gfs to h5 84 hours NAM. Then see what happens on the gfs. You can surmise the nam was heading in the same direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I cant really see 3-4 weeks.. guess they are going with climo and persistent +PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 With all that shit going on at H5 on the GFS, one of these matches have gotta light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 50/50 low 582dm on the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 ^West coast swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Look at that Pacific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 51 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's why I said 4 days max. It fine to discuss it even before then to separate it from other threats. We're already talking about the storm threat beyond 4 days in this thread. Moving the discussion into another thread, same discussion, different thread is harmless. It is pretty comical in not the funniest way that we can't start threads far in advance. I mean the avg age here has to be in the upper 30s at least. But we simply can't have a clean and focused discussion about a possible wx event 4-5+ days in advance. Instead, because our area has always been and will always be dicey with storms, the storm threads become devoid of good analysis and unreadable every 6-12 hours. The pile-on party of despair and bad posts phenomena is an unstoppable snowball. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 CMC still has the storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 gem still looks good for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The potential next weekend reminds me an awful lot of how we got multiple ok storms in JF 2014. A few of those strong waves running boundaries were modeled ok pretty far in advance. The progressive nature of the flow will jump things around by default but we're seeing a little bit of consistency show up 6 days out. Today's storm was well modeled that far in advance. We'll see 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The potential next weekend reminds me an awful lot of how we got multiple ok storms in JF 2014. A few of those strong waves running boundaries were modeled ok pretty far in advance. The progressive nature of the flow will jump things around by default but we're seeing a little bit of consistency show up 6 days out. Today's storm was well modeled that far in advance. We'll see as I said before key thing to look out for is what happens out west. The energy does not cut off, it phases with the northern stream ala CMC and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The Pacific is more like 2015 than anything else. Look what we do in the Pacific before Strong Nino I dont know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12z GEFS took the proverbial “step back” for next weekend’s possible storm. Supports OTS/southern slider solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GEFS took the proverbial “step back” for next weekend’s possible storm. Supports OTS/southern slider solution. Given what this storm did from it's trek from the long range to the medium range - I'd rather have that for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Chuck STOP!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Chuck STOP!! This 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think it would be a fail if we can't get another warning level event and/or 10-12" of smaller events before this month is out. All the waves flying around...we'd have to strike out like 2-3 times, smh Like as we track this week I hope we have something else to track after it in case it flops, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Wonder if it will be warmer Spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18-24 hours of snowfall for us on the GGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 CMC CMC ens 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Sorry @Weather Will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 ThisGive him on own thread for ALL his posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: CMC CMC ens 20 inches is Hampton Roads is weenie suicide. But we all know being bullseyed right now is not what you want. I like where we sit right now. Hope the euro holds and GFs joins aboard soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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