CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: I don't know about cutting inland. Both the CMC and Euro were showing stout banana highs. I think we're either at a flush hit or being pushed south. That is probably the least likely option given what we see advertised on guidance right now, but with no blocking a more amplified wave could result in a hugger or inland runner. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 hours ago, HighStakes said: Another long week shaping up. Not for me this time lol. I’ll check this daily until about Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 hours ago, Amped said: 500 MB evolution Look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 hours ago, caviman2201 said: Thread? I'm kidding, I'm kidding!!! If somebody does, I hope it ends up in Detroit with thunderstorms here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 hours ago, HighStakes said: Don't sleep on the little Thursday system. Could be a nice appetizer if the stars align. Ala Feb 2, 2010? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ala Feb 2, 2010? Weeeeeeeee! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Weeeeeeeee! Looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Weeeeeeeee!That's why snow showers are showing up in my forecast for that daySent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This is just awesome ^notice ensembles vs op 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The Southeast forum has already started a thread. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: The Southeast forum has already started a thread. So did the SNE forum 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 So did the SNE forumAre we the only highly superstitious people here? Didn’t they see what happened to the last storm! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ala Feb 2, 2010? How did I leave that one out! Lol. It only set up our greatest week ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 STJ still juicy at 336 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Are we the only highly superstitious people here? Didn’t they see what happened to the last storm! It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. 10 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. It’s only stupid if it doesn’t work… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 0z Euro has a bit of a transient block, which is the best we can ask for up top right now, so I’m going to remain incredibly jittery unless we can get this thing under four days. For the next few days, I want to see this thing ocsillate between a decent hit and sliding south. This this has a few runs of going too far NW and it’s light out for those of us in the corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. It’s dumb because all it does it cause heartache and meltdowns among a large group of certain posters if it ends up failing. And all that does is muck the place up and get people arguing again. There’s nothing wrong with - and I’d argue it’s much better - discussing a six-day yonder threat window in this thread. If we get within four days and it’s still looking good, then fire up a thread. My opinion and all, of course. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: It’s dumb because all it does it cause heartache and meltdowns among a large group of certain posters if it ends up failing. And all that does is muck the place up and get people arguing again. There’s nothing wrong with - and I’d argue it’s much better - discussing a six-day yonder threat window in this thread. If we get within four days and it’s still looking good, then fire up a thread. My opinion and all, of course. Thank you. And this is exactly the method I follow for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: 0z Euro has a bit of a transient block, which is the best we can ask for up top right now, so I’m going to remain incredibly jittery unless we can get this thing under four days. For the next few days, I want to see this thing ocsillate between a decent hit and sliding south. This this has a few runs of going too far NW and it’s light out for those of us in the corridor. From looking at the latest GEFS and EPS, I think the bigger risk at this point is that the trough doesn’t dig enough and this slides off to the south and we just get a glancing hit (or none at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Next January will definitely be -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 days is an eternity in weather. 48 hours is a solid window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. Yeah, I've never understood it. If something seems like a legit threat, start a thread for it. If it falls apart, people will just stop posting about it. Not that complicated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here. But whatever. I mostly ignore yall about thread start times. I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread. 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's honestly the dumbest thing i have ever seen. With a lot of extremely bright people here it's even more surprising. In SNE they start the threads a week before all the time. Guess what, they get a shit ton more snow then us and it doesn't seem to be affecting them. Yeah, it's pretty stupid honestly. Like you said, it's not as if the models or the atmosphere "listens" to MA weenies and says "oh, they started a thread too early, let's screw them over!!" I can see why SNE might tend to start storm threads earlier simply due to their climatology and they have obviously more leeway in terms of setups for such things. Here, it's kinda silly to start threads really early not due to "superstition", but because we typically are in a more tentative setup and it's better to wait for a bit more information/detail. Otherwise you end up with a bunch of BS commentary going on as things waver back and forth. ETA: The only times I recall starting threads relatively earlier are for the big events (Feb. 2010, Jan. 2016). But that's because at the time there was such a strong agreement and signal across essentially all models and ensembles, so it made sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, jaydreb said: From looking at the latest GEFS and EPS, I think the bigger risk at this point is that the trough doesn’t dig enough and this slides off to the south and we just get a glancing hit (or none at all). We should go back to a week ago and see the comments to today’s storm. Of course every setup is different but we basically said the same thing last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 IMO, figuring out what happens near Baja California is key. The 6z gfs is a miss because it cuts off and leaves energy behind there. FWIW, the 12z NAM would've been a miss as well. Leaves energy behind. The 6z euro would have been good most likely. Very similar to 0z does not leave energy behind at 90 hours. Only 84-90 hours out to figuring it out. Something has to give! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: We should go back to a week ago and see the comments to today’s storm. Of course every setup is different but we basically said the same thing last week. I always welcome a storm that looks suppressed on guidance until even the short-term -- a true snowstorm for the Carolinas is so rare and Virginia usually reaps a lot of the benefits. Anyway, 06z GEFS. Right where I want it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I always welcome a storm that looks suppressed on guidance until even the short-term -- a true snowstorm for the Carolinas is so rare and Virginia usually reaps a lot of the benefits. Anyway, 06z GEFS. Right where I want it. True but this is what it looked like the run before. Anyway, this is all moot since we’ll get a new run in an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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