January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

LWX AFD from this morning for the Friday into Saturday potential 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move east to allow for a cold front to approach
the region during the day Wednesday. The front will bring a chance
for rain and/or snow showers late Wednesday through Thursday
morning. A gusty and chilly northwest wind will develop behind the
front as a second area of high pressure builds to our northwest.
Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday.
Below normal temperatures will continue Friday with high pressure
covering the region.

Models are indicating a potential coastal low pressure system Friday
night into the day Saturday. The GFS develops a coastal low near
coastal Carolina, intensifying it but keeping it moving out to sea.
Thus, leaving us dry with a winter chill. The European model shows a
significant winter storm with wind and heavy snow for much of our
region late Friday through Saturday. The Canadian model shows an
elongated coastal low pressure system along the Carolina Coast.
intensifying it and moving it northward toward southern New England.
This would put strong winds in the east and moderate to heavy snow
accumulations along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. We still
have 5 to 6 days until this potential winter storm, so the exact
track and intensity could change quite a few times between now and
then.

[Ji]

6z will prob be better than 0z but not like 18z

[Ji]

Stupid baja low affecting gfs ability to dig further west it seems

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

6z will prob be better than 0z but not like 18z

It's better than 00z overall but yes... that h5 low out west is causing the s/w to not dig as far west as we want

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

There are some monster hits in the EPS

Pictures?

[CAPE]

[Ji]

Can't really ask for better 6 days away. Maybe euro can dethrone gfs

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Can't really ask for better 6 days away. Maybe euro can dethrone gfs

CMC has been the most bullish on a winter storm for this period.

[CAPE]

The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between.

[CAPE]

Snowfall mean for next weekend into the following Monday is 3-5" across the region on the 0z CMC ens and EPS, with the higher amounts along and SE of I-95, and a bit further south on the EPS.

[yoda]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between.

I don't know about cutting inland.  Both the CMC and Euro were showing stout banana highs.  I think we're either at a flush hit or being pushed south.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I don't know about cutting inland.  Both the CMC and Euro were showing stout banana highs.  I think we're either at a flush hit or being pushed south.

That is probably the least likely option given what we see advertised on guidance right now, but with no blocking a more amplified wave could result in a hugger or inland runner.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Another long week shaping up.

Not for me this time lol. I’ll check this daily until about Thursday 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, Amped said:

500 MB evolution

Look familiar?

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, caviman2201 said:

Thread?

 

I'm kidding, I'm kidding!!! 

If somebody does, I hope it ends up in Detroit with thunderstorms here 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Don't sleep on the little Thursday system. Could be a nice appetizer if the stars align. 

Ala Feb 2, 2010?

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ala Feb 2, 2010?

Weeeeeeeee!

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Weeeeeeeee!

Looks great!

[AlexD1990]

Weeeeeeeee!

That's why snow showers are showing up in my forecast for that day

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[StormchaserChuck!]

This is just awesome

^notice ensembles vs op

[Ephesians2]

The Southeast forum has already started a thread. 

[yoda]

16 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

The Southeast forum has already started a thread. 

So did the SNE forum

[NorthArlington101]

So did the SNE forum

Are we the only highly superstitious people here? Didn’t they see what happened to the last storm!

[HighStakes]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ala Feb 2, 2010?

How did I leave that one out! Lol. It only set up our greatest week ever.

[StormchaserChuck!]

STJ still juicy at 336

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Are we the only highly superstitious people here? Didn’t they see what happened to the last storm!

It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here.  But whatever.  I mostly ignore yall about thread start times.   I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread.  

[LeesburgWx]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here.  But whatever.  I mostly ignore yall about thread start times.   I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread.  

It’s only stupid if it doesn’t work…

[nj2va]

34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here.  But whatever.  I mostly ignore yall about thread start times.   I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread.  

Amen

[mattie g]

0z Euro has a bit of a transient block, which is the best we can ask for up top right now, so I’m going to remain incredibly jittery unless we can get this thing under four days.

For the next few days, I want to see this thing ocsillate between a decent hit and sliding south. This this has a few runs of going too far NW and it’s light out for those of us in the corridor.

[mattie g]

40 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a kinda annoying and fully dumb thing going on here.  But whatever.  I mostly ignore yall about thread start times.   I limit how far in advance because...it's too far out in la la land for a threat, not because naturally occurring and non sentient thing can read a weather board and make "decisions" based on a thread.  

It’s dumb because all it does it cause heartache and meltdowns among a large group of certain posters if it ends up failing.  And all that does is muck the place up and get people arguing again. There’s nothing wrong with - and I’d argue it’s much better - discussing a six-day yonder threat window in this thread.

If we get within four days and it’s still looking good, then fire up a thread.

My opinion and all, of course.