HighStakes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Don't sleep on the little Thursday system. Could be a nice appetizer if the stars align. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Don't sleep on the little Thursday system. Could be a nice appetizer if the stars align. My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow. Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow. Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up. THIS 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Amped said: 500 MB evolution It's amazing how similar this setup is to tomorrow's event. We benefit this time from the main wave not being as wrapped up as early, but that kicker could play a role either way. Like tomorrow's event it could end up phasing and pulling it west or help kick it east. Love the potential though. Anyway, I'm packed up and headed to Niagra Falls tomorrow morning. Peace weenies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Matt has to be salivating at that run too Matt’s deck pic is probably pretty big right now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow. Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up. CMC had it snow 1 to 3 inches DC metro south and still showed a major storm for us. Euro actually had no snow (actually light rain) and had the monster storm... so I'm not sure it will matter... but I'll let someone more knowledgeable speak up on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow. Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up. I have good feeling we'll be tracking something the following week too so buckle up! We may be in business right through early February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wrong thread my friend! OOPS. My slip Next week looks lit though. Time to stock up now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 close up 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: CMC had it snow 1 to 3 inches DC metro south and still showed a major storm for us. Euro actually had no snow (actually light rain) and had the monster storm... so I'm not sure it will matter... but I'll let someone more knowledgeable speak up on it There have been quite a few moderate and big storms that were preceeded by a small event just prior or within 48 hours of the "main event" 2003,2004,2016 just to name a few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Euro also some truly incredible cold after the storm. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: close up See those totals on coast put them over dc. These almost always go farther nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 It's gonna end up like this storm most likely but it's encouraging insofar as getting the cold in deeper. Might help the borderline folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Hopefully im not the only person still awake... EPS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 What a weenie run. Massive storm and unreal cold! Fingers crossed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: See those totals on coast put them over dc. These almost always go farther nw Um thanks? Enjoy this storm that you are getting tomorrow then while we enjoy the weekend storm if it occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I just saw the Euro. DroolingThere is no drug like the blue 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 There are some monster hits in the EPS 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 There are some monster hits in the EPSAny inland rain solutions or mostly suppressed out to sea? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 LWX AFD from this morning for the Friday into Saturday potential .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will move east to allow for a cold front to approach the region during the day Wednesday. The front will bring a chance for rain and/or snow showers late Wednesday through Thursday morning. A gusty and chilly northwest wind will develop behind the front as a second area of high pressure builds to our northwest. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday. Below normal temperatures will continue Friday with high pressure covering the region. Models are indicating a potential coastal low pressure system Friday night into the day Saturday. The GFS develops a coastal low near coastal Carolina, intensifying it but keeping it moving out to sea. Thus, leaving us dry with a winter chill. The European model shows a significant winter storm with wind and heavy snow for much of our region late Friday through Saturday. The Canadian model shows an elongated coastal low pressure system along the Carolina Coast. intensifying it and moving it northward toward southern New England. This would put strong winds in the east and moderate to heavy snow accumulations along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. We still have 5 to 6 days until this potential winter storm, so the exact track and intensity could change quite a few times between now and then. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6z will prob be better than 0z but not like 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Stupid baja low affecting gfs ability to dig further west it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z will prob be better than 0z but not like 18z It's better than 00z overall but yes... that h5 low out west is causing the s/w to not dig as far west as we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: There are some monster hits in the EPS Pictures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Can't really ask for better 6 days away. Maybe euro can dethrone gfs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Can't really ask for better 6 days away. Maybe euro can dethrone gfs CMC has been the most bullish on a winter storm for this period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Snowfall mean for next weekend into the following Monday is 3-5" across the region on the 0z CMC ens and EPS, with the higher amounts along and SE of I-95, and a bit further south on the EPS. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between. I don't know about cutting inland. Both the CMC and Euro were showing stout banana highs. I think we're either at a flush hit or being pushed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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