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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Don't sleep on the little Thursday system. Could be a nice appetizer if the stars align. 

My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow.

Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up.
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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow.

Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up.

THIS

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11 minutes ago, Amped said:

https://i.imgur.com/RLx2Wt6.gif

500 MB evolution

It's amazing how similar this setup is to tomorrow's event. We benefit this time from the main wave not being as wrapped up as early, but that kicker could play a role either way. Like tomorrow's event it could end up phasing and pulling it west or help kick it east. Love the potential though.

Anyway, I'm packed up and headed to Niagra Falls tomorrow morning. Peace weenies 

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow.

Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up.

CMC had it snow 1 to 3 inches DC metro south and still showed a major storm for us.  Euro actually had no snow (actually light rain) and had the monster storm... so I'm not sure it will matter... but I'll let someone more knowledgeable speak up on it

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


My nightmare is that the Thursday system is crucial enough to the Saturday system that it ends up ruining it somehow.

Should be an amazing week of tracking, though. Admittedly I’m already feeling burnt out, and with my last semester of college starting up, I might need to work to regain some of this lost sleep, haha. Or I’ll lose even more, given it’s my last semester of college and I’ve got a post-grad job so I’ll be living it up.

I have good feeling we'll be tracking something the following week too so buckle up! We may be in business right through early February.

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

CMC had it snow 1 to 3 inches DC metro south and still showed a major storm for us.  Euro actually had no snow (actually light rain) and had the monster storm... so I'm not sure it will matter... but I'll let someone more knowledgeable speak up on it

There have been quite a few moderate and big storms that were preceeded by a small event just prior or within 48 hours of the "main event"

2003,2004,2016 just to name a few.

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LWX AFD from this morning for the Friday into Saturday potential 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move east to allow for a cold front to approach
the region during the day Wednesday. The front will bring a chance
for rain and/or snow showers late Wednesday through Thursday
morning. A gusty and chilly northwest wind will develop behind the
front as a second area of high pressure builds to our northwest.
Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal Thursday.
Below normal temperatures will continue Friday with high pressure
covering the region.

Models are indicating a potential coastal low pressure system Friday
night into the day Saturday. The GFS develops a coastal low near
coastal Carolina, intensifying it but keeping it moving out to sea.
Thus, leaving us dry with a winter chill. The European model shows a
significant winter storm with wind and heavy snow for much of our
region late Friday through Saturday. The Canadian model shows an
elongated coastal low pressure system along the Carolina Coast.
intensifying it and moving it northward toward southern New England.
This would put strong winds in the east and moderate to heavy snow
accumulations along and east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. We still
have 5 to 6 days until this potential winter storm, so the exact
track and intensity could change quite a few times between now and
then.
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The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between.

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28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The weekend window will be interesting to track, but be prepared for changes. Between the amplified ridge out west and the southward displaced TPV, there will be multiple shortwaves in the NS flow, and at this range it is impossible to know what the key players are, the interactions, or the timing. The overall flow remains progressive so anything is on the table dependent on the strength and timing of the waves, location and degree of any phasing etc. This could end up crushed south, cutting inland, or somewhere in between.

I don't know about cutting inland.  Both the CMC and Euro were showing stout banana highs.  I think we're either at a flush hit or being pushed south.

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