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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

If we go through this favorable period with nothing...it'll be back.

We'll get some more snow imo. Not even thinking about that going away. All guidance is wintry in general for as far as you can see. Not optimal but pretty good. I just hope expectations aren't thru the roof. It's still mostly a northern stream pattern and rather progressive. A bit of a WAR showing up. Fast movers unless cutoff. Strong systems need luck to not cut. 

Personally, active winter periods are much much much more fun for me than a 10 day big Miller A track. I like variety in this hobby too. Feeling optimistic for more snow just not great for a big coastal here without random chaos putting pieces in place at just the right time. No long tracks in our future me thinks. 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

So many opportunities on the long range gfs.  With shortwaves flying everywhere.

Definitely looks interesting over the next few weeks.

So many chances yet the op doesn't drop a flake of snow here after tomorrow thru the end of January. I know....op. Just funny with all thats going on at 500mb we couldn't muster a flake this run.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So many chances yet the op doesn't drop a flake of snow here after tomorrow thru the end of January. I know....op. Just funny with all thats going on at 500mb we couldn't muster a flake this run.

Oh how often does our more logical conscious mind tell us that...but our subconscious wants to throw a fit anyway? :lol:

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1 minute ago, Twilly05 said:

Congrats Albany? Lol

Plenty can change at this range. Even though we have a pattern that can deliver some impressive cold, the flow is progressive(no blocking) so it largely comes down to timing. No way to know how that will turn out at this juncture.

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Gets light snow to us, but headed out to see at our latitude.  Like I said, at this range, that's solid enough.

 

1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, stormtracker said:
Gets light snow to us, but headed out to see at our latitude.  Like I said, at this range, that's solid enough.

So close man but good starting spot 10 days out

It’s a long range op so doesn’t matter but the SW track is good and the flow isn’t over suppressive. All it would take is a slightly more amplified SW. 

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now this is the part of the weenie psychology I don't get: posting snow maps for something Day 7/8...smh Why y'all do this to yourselves, seriously? Lol

A better question is why post a 7 day map that includes snow from tomorrow. That map basically said no snow at all after this storm. Not sure why it was posted at all.

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