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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Still a small signal around 1/22-23.

image.thumb.png.274cc56d2584d269b14c09f9c0808156.png 


image.thumb.png.86fd654d44baefefd5e30a70eec0ccc8.png


 

image.thumb.png.2658869c7af638e1aed5790d78fabc8b.png

GEFS is holding onto that signal as well. Still showing up a bit on the OP runs, like with what the Canadian tried to do at hr 180. Pretty suppressive look up top, but as we learned with this recent system, that can easily change. 

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Just now, Amped said:

Impressive snowstorm in the SE.    Another closed low 500 low moving across the gulf coast

Looks pretty enticing. NAO goes from - to + during this timeframe, so there's decent HA storm signal. Would probably also help offset how far east the trough is. Ensembles should be fun. 

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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

If we go through this favorable period with nothing...it'll be back.

We'll get some more snow imo. Not even thinking about that going away. All guidance is wintry in general for as far as you can see. Not optimal but pretty good. I just hope expectations aren't thru the roof. It's still mostly a northern stream pattern and rather progressive. A bit of a WAR showing up. Fast movers unless cutoff. Strong systems need luck to not cut. 

Personally, active winter periods are much much much more fun for me than a 10 day big Miller A track. I like variety in this hobby too. Feeling optimistic for more snow just not great for a big coastal here without random chaos putting pieces in place at just the right time. No long tracks in our future me thinks. 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

So many opportunities on the long range gfs.  With shortwaves flying everywhere.

Definitely looks interesting over the next few weeks.

So many chances yet the op doesn't drop a flake of snow here after tomorrow thru the end of January. I know....op. Just funny with all thats going on at 500mb we couldn't muster a flake this run.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So many chances yet the op doesn't drop a flake of snow here after tomorrow thru the end of January. I know....op. Just funny with all thats going on at 500mb we couldn't muster a flake this run.

Oh how often does our more logical conscious mind tell us that...but our subconscious wants to throw a fit anyway? :lol:

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