yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 H/T @CoastalWx 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Something has to give. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro at 240 was about to phase and go nuts. I can't see the heights in the Arctic on pivotal, but it looks like there's kind of a Scandinavian Ridge poking a little into the NAO domain, a bit of a 50/50, a +PNA, and the ridge axis out west anchored in Idaho. I'm not going to sniff at that. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The euro is trying for another NS phase job with a gulf system next weekend. Might not pull it off this run but interesting and somewhat similar to this. We were discussing this in the last few zoom chats... JB is right about one thing...this is the kind of pattern where you can get the NS to dig far enough south to get these amplified systems coming up out of the gulf coast. But they aren't going to be 1993...even for a triple phased system that was a once in a lifetime thing. We've had several other triple phased storms but they usually phase and bomb further north like the November 51 and January 66 storms. So he isn't wrong that this is the kind of pattern to get the NS to dig down and phase and get amplified storms but he goes full over the top hype mode as usual. Also its not necessarily what we want as were seeing now these types of storms can cut if we dont have enough confluence to our north. The key is to either have something blocking the flow, a well timed 50/50 or wave coming over the top in front of it... and it would also help not to have another NS wave diving in and phasing right behind it! I agree. I honestly don't want another 1993-type storm. Interesting and all, but give me a wet, phased system that runs into a block and gets tucked in just off of OCMD as the upper-level comes in from behind. I don't need ridiculous dynamics and all that - that just spells trouble for us. Let's be honest - we do those pretty well, if only occasionally. We're (MBY) NEVER going to be on the big end of a triple-phased monster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, LP08 said: Seems familiar. Haha Looks quite different to the trained eye. Much stronger offshore flow. That's Probably a 960mb bomb and a Hecs at 276 or maybe just offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 @mattie g does this help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z GFS tries to do something akin to the D7 storm the Canadian has One door closes, another opens.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Man, with all these threats Lucy is going to run out of footballs 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 40 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Man, with all these threats Lucy is going to run out of footballs Nawww It's Lucy. She only needs one, until Chuck FINALLY gets ahold of one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Some nice hits on the 0z GEFS around 1/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 hours ago, weathercoins said: Good afternoon all … exactly what time will the snow start for the NW DC suburbs and exactly how many inches???? Not talking about the storm this Sunday I’m talking about the possible Miller A in ten days thanks It starts at 330pm on a Monday. The snow becomes heavy right away, wall of snow. There will be thundersnows. You get anywhere from 11 to 18 inches. No mixing, tho there may be some mixing in SE VA and E NC. Massive storm, lots of moisture and decent cold air. There'll be other snows after that, too. We've only just begun. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not looking very cold anymore....who spilled the salt shaker? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Not looking very cold anymore....who spilled the salt shaker? Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum, the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. from bluewave below: 'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Not looking very cold anymore....who spilled the salt shaker? Euro n GFS look seasonable this coming week with a BN pattern for next week. Euro being colder than GFS. 8 to 14 day outlook still shows us BN during the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Euro n GFS look seasonable this coming week with a BN pattern for next week. Euro being colder than GFS. 8 to 14 day outlook still shows us BN during the same period. Weren't we supposed to be in single digits at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, frd said: Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum, the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. from bluewave below: 'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February." Ok good then it can snow 14" in Fredericksburg again with the -PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Weren't we supposed to be in single digits at some point? Close? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Weren't we supposed to be in single digits at some point? You need snowcover for that, silly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, George BM said: Putting this in here as well. Possible implications down the road? We'll see. This is the Tonga eruption which occurred just after 400z today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, frd said: Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum, the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. from bluewave below: 'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February." Feb will work just fine with that bottom pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, George BM said: Putting this in here as well. Possible implications down the road? We'll see. This is the Tonga eruption which occurred just after 400z today. We back to volcanoes, asteroids, and strat warning? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Wow.... I have no clue what it takes for an eruption to actually affect weather patterns but that is some fascinating stuff. Would the easterly shear in the strat be our -QBO showing up on sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, George BM said: Putting this in here as well. Possible implications down the road? We'll see. This is the Tonga eruption which occurred just after 400z today. Probably not even close to being large enough for long term impacts. We'll see if it keeps spewing SO2 but it takes a lot to do anything to climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We back to volcanoes, asteroids, and strat warning? Sounds like we might be closing the blinds soon if that's the case. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Still a small signal around 1/22-23. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Feb will work just fine with that bottom pattern. Forget it. We already see the back side of this upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 All the potentials died on the 0z runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, mattie g said: Forget it. We already see the back side of this upcoming pattern. The number of times the message in here has been that the long range looks bad and it turned out fine and vice versa is high. I wouldn't get all overwhelmed by the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: All the potentials died on the 0z runs. Oh dang really? Thought there was still a bit of a storm signal next weekend (with a couple waves flying around after) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: All the potentials died on the 0z runs. When is the teardrop coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: When is the teardrop coming back. If we go through this favorable period with nothing...it'll be back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 CMC ens also looks interesting late week into next weekend for a little something. Not seeing a clear signal on the means for the following week but I would be surprised if we aren't teased by a coastal or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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