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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, yoda said:

Arctic cold and not much

It did make a baby step towards what the Canadian is trying to hint at for our D7 storm. Had a weak LP system bringing light snow to costal SC. Kinda reminiscent for what this weekend's system showed at the same timeframe, but man that is some brutal cold pressing down during the same timeframe. Negatives for the far western burbs. 

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, Euro H5 map at 192 looks soooooo familiar...

The euro is trying for another NS phase job with a gulf system next weekend.  Might not pull it off this run but interesting and somewhat similar to this.  We were discussing this in the last few zoom chats... JB is right about one thing...this is the kind of pattern where you can get the NS to dig far enough south to get these amplified systems coming up out of the gulf coast.  But they aren't going to be 1993...even for a triple phased system that was a once in a lifetime thing.  We've had several other triple phased storms but they usually phase and bomb further north like the November 51 and January 66 storms.  So he isn't wrong that this is the kind of pattern to get the NS to dig down and phase and get amplified storms but he goes full over the top hype mode as usual.   Also its not necessarily what we want as were seeing now these types of storms can cut if we dont have enough confluence to our north.  The key is to either have something blocking the flow, a well timed 50/50 or wave coming over the top in front of it... and it would also help not to have another NS wave diving in and phasing right behind it!    

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The euro is trying for another NS phase job with a gulf system next weekend.  Might not pull it off this run but interesting and somewhat similar to this.  We were discussing this in the last few zoom chats... JB is right about one thing...this is the kind of pattern where you can get the NS to dig far enough south to get these amplified systems coming up out of the gulf coast.  But they aren't going to be 1993...even for a triple phased system that was a once in a lifetime thing.  We've had several other triple phased storms but they usually phase and bomb further north like the November 51 and January 66 storms.  So he isn't wrong that this is the kind of pattern to get the NS to dig down and phase and get amplified storms but he goes full over the top hype mode as usual.   Also its not necessarily what we want as were seeing now these types of storms can cut if we dont have enough confluence to our north.  The key is to either have something blocking the flow, a well timed 50/50 or wave coming over the top in front of it... and it would also help not to have another NS wave diving in and phasing right behind it!    

I mean, it D10, no use in discussing in detail because we both know it's gonna change next run, but I don't believe we escape the next 2 weeks without a threat (or two) to track.  And yeah...JB, lol.  Everything is always '93 with him

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, it D10, no use in discussing in detail because we both know it's gonna change next run, but I don't believe we escape the next 2 weeks without a threat (or two) to track.  And yeah...JB, lol.  Everything is always '93 with him

We are very much still in business after Sunday. I honestly think this could end up a very memorable winter month.

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@psuhoffman Got a couple questions about your post:

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So he isn't wrong that this is the kind of pattern to get the NS to dig down and phase and get amplified storms but he goes full over the top hype mode as usual.   Also its not necessarily what we want as were seeing now these types of storms can cut if we dont have enough confluence to our north.

So if that the problem we're seeing with Sunday's mixed mess? Not enough confluence? Or was is something else involved too? Is there a reason why "this type" of storm can cut?

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The key is to either have something blocking the flow, a well timed 50/50 or wave coming over the top in front of it... and it would also help not to have another NS wave diving in and phasing right behind it!    

I guess this question might be one more for one of the zoom chats...I wanna see exactly what you mean by "a well timed 50/50 coming over the top".

And to the other issue when a NS waves phases right behind...YUCK. All I can see is March 2018--boo! (Although I don't fully understand why that made the storm do what it did). So in other words....if we can get the Great Lakes to play nice, maybe we get something going! :D

 

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