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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m guessing you’re a glass half empty kinda guy 

Actually it depends...Outwardly, I can be glass half full, but inwardly...let's just say I tend to focus on the "what might go wrong" scenarios more than I should. So not so much glass half empty but more like...the glass I'm drinking is half full, but what to do if the next glass is empty? Or breaks?....lol

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16 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

Still looking forward to what may, or may not happen, late month after this recent fiasco.  Maybe @CAPE and I can score a moderate hit and have it stick around a while.  I settle for a ground blizzard.  

 

 

Check out that +PNA continuing to get reinforced on that map.  May be able to time more of a pseudo -NAO with those higher heights rolling through GL too.

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Like many of the rest of you, I’m looking past this weekend to what could be coming up next. That disturbance next Friday-Saturday on the GFS has been around in some form or another, and it’s started a little bit of a jog to the northwest. We see something hanging around on all other guidance, as well (CMC being the most ridiculous solution for now).

With the trend over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues moving that one to the northwest, with all guidance starting to converge by the time the upcoming joke is out of here.

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24 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

Still looking forward to what may, or may not happen, late month after this recent fiasco.  Maybe @CAPE and I can score a moderate hit and have it stick around a while.  I settle for a ground blizzard.  

 

 

Ofc the means have a pretty dry look with the baroclinic zone largely suppressed/offshore, but there will be relaxations and small scale perturbations in the larger scale flow that cannot be picked up on a LR ensemble. As I mentioned earlier, I would expect to see an offshore low/ coastal scraper and maybe a big storm during this period.

0z GFS showed the potential- 

1643220000-WQTSXnEyLKU.png

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42 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Like many of the rest of you, I’m looking past this weekend to what could be coming up next. That disturbance next Friday-Saturday on the GFS has been around in some form or another, and it’s started a little bit of a jog to the northwest. We see something hanging around on all other guidance, as well (CDS being the most ridiculous solution for now).

With the trend over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues moving that one to the northwest, with all guidance starting to converge by the time the upcoming joke is out of here.

Even being further NW I am looking for the next one.  Don't get me wrong I am looking forward to the thump because I enjoy all snow.  But I know this has 3-4" and a rapid changeover written all over it.  Even up here. (5 miles west of the BR)

00Z EPS increased its signal for this time period.  

1642874400-j7YgWCPGcl0.png

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm so over this Sunday slophog.   I need next Friday to work out.  Let's do it.

Same. I'm not as excited about the next couple of weeks now as I was previously now that it looks like some major cold is going to push through. Sure, I guess you could get a 2014 and 2015 repeat with lots of waves coming at us and getting direct hits, but it doesn't look like the chance of a big storm is in the cards now like it possibly was several days ago. And add to that the fact this slop storm coming up is quickly going to melt before we get the cold, and I'd rather not have a big outbreak of cold and just take our chances with a less extreme pattern.

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47 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm so over this Sunday slophog.   I need next Friday to work out.  Let's do it.

Man I've BEEN over this since like late Monday, lol  Now some of ya kinda trolled me for giving up on this weekend on Monday...but now I'm kinda glad I did! This whole thing looked messy from the start to me...with that whole weird ocean low and the wonky suppressed solutions...just wasn't quite feeling it! @stormtracker I'm with ya--I really want next weekend to work out too...been keyed in on it for a bit (especially if we get the forecasted ice box afterward, lol). We shall see!

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