nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: What a pointless tweet. I think @Ralph Wiggum wrote that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 50 minutes ago, mattie g said: What a pointless tweet. He’s useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 how are we getting our next storm. The flow is still NW flow and the trough still seems too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ji said: how are we getting our next storm. The flow is still NW flow and the trough still seems too far east It was about last Friday or so that this storm looked very similar to the maps for about a week from today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There is a low in the south next Wednesday on GEFS but there’s no impetus for it to really develop and come up our way. Just gets bullied off the continent. But it’s there. Maybe it finds a path northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It was about last Friday or so that this storm looked very similar to the maps for about a week from today. I need to see lows scooting off the coast of Georgia seven days out. Gives us a little bit of room for the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s useless I used to think this dude was really good. I mean, he knows his stuff, but he's a human pendulum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ok, what's next on deck. Rapidly losing interest for Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, mattie g said: I need to see lows scooting off the coast of Georgia seven days out. Gives us a little bit of room for the NW trend. Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. JV models will trend to the GFS, which will start the inevitable climb NW by 12z this Sunday. JV models will lag behind the GFS until 0z Tuesday, when they'll generally converge. Now...whether that means anything for our backyards, I have no idea, but it's played out more than once in the last few weeks and I see no reason to feel any differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. Just looked at the CMC. I like the 24+ hours of snowfall that drops a little less than 0.6" of QPF with temps 28-29F and a column that's cold throughout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Just looked at the CMC. I like the 24+ hours of snowfall that drops a little less than 0.6" of QPF with temps 28-29F and a column that's cold throughout. id take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro gets northern MD near zero Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. And so it begins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And so it begins Now see... On 1/11/2022 at 1:30 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Yep...this weekend is looking more like the weekend to start tracking whatever comes the next week/weekend, lol Well...here we are, lol On 1/11/2022 at 1:37 AM, alexderiemer said: You give up way too easily. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk On 1/11/2022 at 6:12 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Great post Of course I could've just as easily been wrong...but given the mess and not too much getting "crushed" (at least not my neck of the city), and that weird setup with that ocean low, and something where we needed it to back off but not to quick...blech. Never felt good about it! Thus me looking LR after this, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Will the 22F DCA saga finally come to an end with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. Next weekend would be sweet. I LOVE snow before a big arctic dump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Will the 22F DCA saga finally come to an end with this? I want to believe… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. GFS and Euro have also been hinting at snow late next week on recent runs. Its a window to watch with an Arctic boundary approaching. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: GFS and Euro have also been hinting at snow late next week on recent runs. Its a window to watch with an Arctic boundary approaching. That would be so sweet to get a wave riding an arctic boundary that gives us 3-6 before we go into a freezer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That would be so sweet to get a wave riding an arctic boundary that gives us 3-6 before we go into a freezer. Perfection. Don't always need a big dog. Love the feel of being way further north than reality once in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS and Euro have also been hinting at snow late next week on recent runs. Its a window to watch with an Arctic boundary approaching. HH GFS is close. DCA might need fresh snowcover in addition to an arctic airmass to get a low of 21F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Perfection. Don't always need a big dog. Love the feel of being way further north than reality once in a while. So I'm wondering if it's gonna be too much of a good thing...and perhaps after the little wave we shouldn't look for much snow-wise for the week after...(can't imagine moisture with that press of cold) I love deep cold but...I'm wondering if we kinda lose the snow chance for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I'm wondering if it's gonna be too much of a good thing...and perhaps after the little wave we shouldn't look for much snow-wise for the week after...(can't imagine moisture with that press of cold) I love deep cold but...I'm wondering if we kinda lose the snow chance for a bit. I’m guessing you’re a glass half empty kinda guy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So I'm wondering if it's gonna be too much of a good thing...and perhaps after the little wave we shouldn't look for much snow-wise for the week after...(can't imagine moisture with that press of cold) I love deep cold but...I'm wondering if we kinda lose the snow chance for a bit. I kinda like the idea of a coastal scraper the week of the 24th- maybe even a bomb cyclone 2018 redux for the beaches. With the advertised look it will probably snow somewhere nearby. We might have to travel a little is all. Or just enjoy the cold and dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: I kinda like the idea of a coastal scraper the week of the 24th- maybe even a bomb cyclone 2018 redux for the beaches. With the advertised look it will probably snow somewhere nearby. We might have to travel a little is all. Or just enjoy the cold and dry. I'd be okay with that if we could also have February as a window...but things might relax then if it reverts back to a more nina-like tendency. If cold and dry eats up the second part of January, this weekend and maybe a couple inches with whatever is next week may be it for snow for a little bit. And man I don't wanna think about that bomb cyclone, lol Again, if we can still have a shot beyond the next two weeks? Great! (Anybody got thoughts on early February?) I know the DC/southern half of the forum is in a really good spot for climo...but my half not so much (because of that painful fringe). Would really like to get something bigger. I mean I'd take more of last Thursday night too, though if I can't get the other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd be okay with that if we could also have February as a window...but things might relax then if it reverts back to a more nina-like tendency. If cold and dry eats up the second part of January, this weekend and maybe a couple inches with whatever is next week may be it for snow for a little bit. And man I don't wanna think about that bomb cyclone, lol Again, if we can still have a shot beyond the next two weeks? Great! (Anybody got thoughts on early February?) I know the DC/southern half of the forum is in a really good spot for climo...but my half not so much (because of that painful fringe). Would really like to get something bigger. I mean I'd take more of last Thursday night too, though if I can't get the other! Well, Cohen's #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well, Cohen's #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth. You should pop that nugget of info in the Feb Long range fantasy thread Cohen's model: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Well, Cohen's #machinelearning model thinks the east may roast in Feb. I have no idea, but it does make some sense that the pattern would relax at at some point. A quick look at the GEFS ens extended and the Euro weeklies are suggestive of a milder pattern, for what that is worth. Well, that would fit the nina tendency...welp, IF this weekend's thump and a quick hitter next week were to be it (assuming it doesn't turn into something bigger)...still not a terrible nina winter so far. I mean yeah I got sucked into thinking we'd get more this month because the STJ was more active, but hey...at least we are having a legit winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well, that would fit the nina tendency...welp, IF this weekend's thump and a quick hitter next week were to be it (assuming it doesn't turn into something bigger)...still not a terrible nina winter so far. I mean yeah I got sucked into thinking we'd get more this month because the STJ was more active, but hey...at least we are having a legit winter! Don’t worry about the ways you’ll fail or whether next month has any chances or stuff like that. Just let the weather do its thing. Late December people in this thread were already cancelling winter and look what happened. No one can confidently say what next week, two weeks, or next month will bring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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