Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. Get a grip man. You're certain it's definite the cities won't get a flush hit 5 days in advance and now your feeling the fizzle beyond that? Are you listening to yourself? You're just walking around here dropping moist blankets on autopilot. Seems like an attempt at reverse psychology. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. Nobody is posting here because they are focused on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 For the Coastal Plain still feel the highest threat for a SECS or greater is from Jan 20 th to the 29 th . This will also coincide with the possibilty of the coldest readings of the winter so far, especially if snow cover can be achieved. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. The pattern still looks great through day 15 on all guidance. We are just focused on a discreet event and there is nothing to add. Everything that needs to be said about the coming pattern has been said. We look to have a prolonged favorable longwave pattern that probably lasts into early February. Unless something changes, and it hasn't, now its about waiting until the waves get into range for us to discuss the details. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I don't like the ridge over the SW today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12Z Euro says days 9/10 are frigid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 While we've been fixated on the day 4/5 threat, the following threat has began to make its way onto ensemble guidance. Looks like a viable setup to me Following that.. it looks like we go into the icebox. There is unanimous agreement among each ensemble suite, and the EPS stepped it up a notch with the 12z run. This mean is probably amplified due to the ensemble members holding onto snowpack, but it's.. quite the signal. For 12+ days out I don't think I've seen this sort of consensus before. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Dec-Jan roll forward (only +analogs) Not sure I agree with switch to El Nino conditions for the Summer, but here are the analogs (cold-+PNA January) *Notice how the -PNA relocates back in Feb-March despite ENSO changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is what I like, personally. If not this February, next February. Believe it or not, but if we go +PNA this February, we will be more likely to have La Nina conditions next Winter or -AAM(+NAO), but a -PNA February would be in line with movement toward +ENSO conditions, and there would be a significant warming of Nino3.4 February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I don't like the ridge over the SW today and tomorrow. Have you had a conversation with it? Maybe you can work it out. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m thinking -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Have you had a conversation with it? Maybe you can work it out. Should be better by 2:50pm Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Saying March 93 is like taking the Lord’s name in vain. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Next chance of something looks like late next week with a possible weak wave moving along/ahead of an Arctic boundary. Looks minor at this point, but both the GFS and Euro are hinting at maybe a quick shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Shotgun remains loaded and cocked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What a pointless tweet. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: What a pointless tweet. I think @Ralph Wiggum wrote that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 50 minutes ago, mattie g said: What a pointless tweet. He’s useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 how are we getting our next storm. The flow is still NW flow and the trough still seems too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ji said: how are we getting our next storm. The flow is still NW flow and the trough still seems too far east It was about last Friday or so that this storm looked very similar to the maps for about a week from today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There is a low in the south next Wednesday on GEFS but there’s no impetus for it to really develop and come up our way. Just gets bullied off the continent. But it’s there. Maybe it finds a path northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It was about last Friday or so that this storm looked very similar to the maps for about a week from today. I need to see lows scooting off the coast of Georgia seven days out. Gives us a little bit of room for the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s useless I used to think this dude was really good. I mean, he knows his stuff, but he's a human pendulum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ok, what's next on deck. Rapidly losing interest for Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, mattie g said: I need to see lows scooting off the coast of Georgia seven days out. Gives us a little bit of room for the NW trend. Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. JV models will trend to the GFS, which will start the inevitable climb NW by 12z this Sunday. JV models will lag behind the GFS until 0z Tuesday, when they'll generally converge. Now...whether that means anything for our backyards, I have no idea, but it's played out more than once in the last few weeks and I see no reason to feel any differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Icon and GGEM both hit us next Friday. GFS is much more suppressed. Just looked at the CMC. I like the 24+ hours of snowfall that drops a little less than 0.6" of QPF with temps 28-29F and a column that's cold throughout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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