jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: TWC hyping it now...now we know its legitimately...not happening Unless it’s Paul Kocin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said after 12z yesterday's runs I wanted to see "changes" by todays 12z runs...that definitely happened lol Just a wee bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Unless it’s Paul Kocin The GOAT. Nothing like hearing his raspy voice on TWC before a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sorry Winter Wx Lvr, it's time for a thread. Trends are not great already, so nobody can blame the thread. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: UKIE has 6" for Atlanta and 12" for Douglas, GA (to the SE). I'll toss. Going to be in Disney next week. I’ll bring a snowsuit just in case… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You didn’t. Did you? I mean … Not strength, but track!!! haha This ain't even in the same zip code in terms of strength. I do like Chaos though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorry Winter Wx Lvr, it's time for a thread. Trends are not great already, so nobody can blame the thread. Plus, the SE forum jinxed themselves long before we did. They’ve had a thread up for days. This sucker is ours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range. Us? Invested in a potential D6 MECS? never. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ji will be happy - another snowstorm on the GFS at 384H. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Go 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorry Winter Wx Lvr, it's time for a thread. Trends are not great already, so nobody can blame the thread. Yeah that’s fine. But I was gonna post a request that nobody starts a new long range thread. Got a good mojo going. Let this one run and I’ll start a new one for February at the right time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range. Lol x a million 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol x a million its like he's new here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do you get a commission for bringing that storm up as much as possible or something? I know. I’m a bit overboard. I drive my wife crazy with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Huge shift on the UK. I'm sure it's been mentioned. EC likely to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, WxMan1 said: If we are, then it's about damn time. Our last El Niño was 6 years ago. We are due. CPC maps are stronger, they have +6c in the central subsurface. history shows not much correlation, although 87-88 was negative in the subsurface during El Nino, and that was followed by a Strong La Nina. re: the storm, Well, it's 25 degrees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 warmth is gravitating to the land, but it's a really good pattern. +AAM measures Earth momentum. Again, I like that cutoff piece for a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So much for that +NAO projected LR, It's a -NAO pattern this year. Feb 7-9-2022 +NAO is a big test. (^The timing of this -NAO lifting out isn't going to match STJ energy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I wonder why @Weather Willdidnt post the snow maps from the 12z ensembles????? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Build the pattern and the snow chances will come. We do this every time. The snow always lags the pattern because there typically isn't a storm threat the minute there is some blue over the east coast. Yet every time were waiting for a good pattern the instant it shows up at day 15 people start getting frustrated when there isn't dark colors on the snow maps. Besides the fact those things are pretty awful to use in general, look at this week as an example. It's the 3rd wave/amplification of the trough in the east that is the first chance to put down snowfall. And there are likely 4-5 more waves after that coming in this pattern. But when this weeks pattern was at day 10-15 the snow maps weren't responding yet because it was too soon. Not taking any victory laps...those maps still don't mean anything other than that there ARE threats and will be opportunities to track in this pattern. We still need some luck and for one of them to produce. But I lol when some get worried if the snow means aren't responding when the good pattern is still not even starting until a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Build the pattern and the snow chances will come. We do this every time. The snow always lags the pattern because there typically isn't a storm threat the minute there is some blue over the east coast. Yet every time were waiting for a good pattern the instant it shows up at day 15 people start getting frustrated when there isn't dark colors on the snow maps. Besides the fact those things are pretty awful to use in general, look at this week as an example. It's the 3rd wave/amplification of the trough in the east that is the first chance to put down snowfall. And there are likely 4-5 more waves after that coming in this pattern. But when this weeks pattern was at day 10-15 the snow maps weren't responding yet because it was too soon. Not taking any victory laps...those maps still don't mean anything other than that there ARE threats and will be opportunities to track in this pattern. We still need some luck and for one of them to produce. But I lol when some get worried if the snow means aren't responding when the good pattern is still not even starting until a week out. to be fair--the Jan 3-4 storm that dropped 15 in Central Virginia occurred on the first day of the pattern change lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: I have been on that same question as I am driving to Cincinnati for the Bengals playoff game at 4:30 pm Saturday. I think the progression on the potential system is Sunday into Monday. My brother and I have made tentative plans to make the full drive back to Baltimore immediately following the game just in case. Good luck as well! Driving back after a night game would not happen especially with sitting outside in single to teen temp's for 10 hours or so but will get up first crack of dawn to make it back hopefully before (if it) starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ji said: to be fair--the Jan 3-4 storm that dropped 15 in Central Virginia occurred on the first day of the pattern change lol I would argue that storm happened during a transition between patterns. It was a trailing wave on a front with an initial storm that cut well NW of us. The next storm was the same situation with a cutter followed by a wave that took advantage of perfect spacing. We can get lucky with those even in just a mediocre pattern so long as there is cold lurking around, and this year we have that. The pacific driving pattern didnt really set in until this week following the cold front yesterday imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I wonder why @Weather Willdidnt post the snow maps from the 12z ensembles????? These look great! Work was killing me today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 STJ moisture hits Jan 22-24 near Mexico here v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I like this threat How did you guys do with 582dm off the West coast in 2014,2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I like this threat How did you guys do with 582dm off the West coast in 2014,2015?That's the big one. 20-26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ENSO subsurface should peak +warming in about 7 days, then I worry about -PNA trend. We might clear January though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Next storm on WB 0Z GFS for the following weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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