jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS just coming into range but so far it does not look to support such a western track. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 very difficult to draw it up much better than this broad 500mb trough over the TN valley, confluence over the NE and phasing imminent pretty classic look 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Also -- no lows look poised to run right through Virginia. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: GEFS just coming into range but so far it does not look to support such a western track. Need a comparison map to prior runs at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Need a comparison map to prior runs at the same time Here was 6z. Definitely a shift west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is a completely different system. Please try to keep up This is the ECM fish storm yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Here was 6z. Definitely a shift west. Thank you. Very large shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, RedSky said: This is the ECM fish storm yesterday The storm off the coast is and has been a completely different system. If you’ve been reading here, that’s the system we were saying needed to get out of the way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Massive shift. Hard to overstate. 12z 06z 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEM has it tilting neutral a bit late but it looks pretty damn good so far on h5/vort through 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know that models have been all over the place but what time frame is this for? I am heading to Buffalo Friday afternoon for the Bills game and plan on heading back sometime Sunday morning. Thanks as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS snow maps are huge improvement from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The storm off the coast is and has been a completely different system. If you’ve been reading here, that’s the system we were saying needed to get out of the way. We need it out of the way yet not too out of the way either...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 That piece over the upper Midwest is doing a good job of yanking this thing nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: We need it out of the way yet not too out of the way either...lol This has morphed into a different animal. It doesn’t surprise me that the ne system seems to be moving out earlier, but that piece over the upper midwest is a fairly recent development that’s having a big impact on this system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Spoke too soon, rug pull in the end with a sharp pull nw at the last minute. Not as crazy as the GFS but probably ends up with lots of ptype concerns for the beltway. Probably real nice west of the fall line though. Don’t have ptype maps yet to see clearer however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af Surface is fine here 95 and west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af Its out to 120 (which is as far as it goes) on the old Canadian government site. Looks nice but hard to tell too much with the one map it gives. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS and GGEM both cut the low off completely and are too slow...placing us under a strong southeast flow that blasts the coastal baroclinic boundary way west...then the low jumps due north to follow that boundary. That "could" happen...but that's a pretty rare progression also so I doubt we are done with the changes coming on future runs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Wanted to add one more GEFS comment then I'll stop the image spam -- the mean improved drastically, but there is still considerable uncertainty among the ENS members. This might be the most conservative 1"% chance I've seen with a snow mean of ~5" in DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This has morphed into a different animal. It doesn’t surprise me that the ne system seems to be moving out earlier, but that piece over the upper midwest is a fairly recent development that’s having a big impact on this system. Which piece is that? (Apologies, still learning to read the H5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Its out to 120 (which is as far as it goes) on the old Canadian government site. Looks nice but hard to tell too much with the one map it gives. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's too slow with the cutoff low to our southwest leaving us under a strong SE flow and wrecks the mid level's pretty bad. But get a slightly faster progress or less cut off solution and it wouldn't take much to turn this progression into a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So are we worried about suppression or overamped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 We went from a suppressed Georgia and Carolina’s snowstorm to worrying about the strong SE flow wrecking the mid levels within 12 hours. Oh. Weather. You never disappoint. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Looks like 2018 Do you get a commission for bringing that storm up as much as possible or something? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af When they get stuck, I have this vision of someone going along and kicking the computer to get it going again 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Goes up the coast for the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know that models have been all over the place but what time frame is this for? I am heading to Buffalo Friday afternoon for the Bills game and plan on heading back sometime Sunday morning. Thanks as always.Off topic my family is from western NY I’m a big bills Fan LETS GO BUFFALO!!! . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's too slow with the cutoff low to our southwest leaving us under a strong SE flow and wrecks the mid level's pretty bad. But get a slightly faster progress or less cut off solution and it wouldn't take much to turn this progression into a big storm. SLP was super jumpy too. The 5H progression was actually pretty solid, but the SLP was west of where it should be. You can see the jumpiness of the low when you walk through from 00z Monday, onward. Should take a 1993 Superstorm track, not a track over DC. Split hairs with a track over even CAPE's hood would be a big difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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