jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS snow maps are huge improvement from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The storm off the coast is and has been a completely different system. If you’ve been reading here, that’s the system we were saying needed to get out of the way. We need it out of the way yet not too out of the way either...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 That piece over the upper Midwest is doing a good job of yanking this thing nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: We need it out of the way yet not too out of the way either...lol This has morphed into a different animal. It doesn’t surprise me that the ne system seems to be moving out earlier, but that piece over the upper midwest is a fairly recent development that’s having a big impact on this system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af 1 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Spoke too soon, rug pull in the end with a sharp pull nw at the last minute. Not as crazy as the GFS but probably ends up with lots of ptype concerns for the beltway. Probably real nice west of the fall line though. Don’t have ptype maps yet to see clearer however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af Surface is fine here 95 and west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af Its out to 120 (which is as far as it goes) on the old Canadian government site. Looks nice but hard to tell too much with the one map it gives. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS and GGEM both cut the low off completely and are too slow...placing us under a strong southeast flow that blasts the coastal baroclinic boundary way west...then the low jumps due north to follow that boundary. That "could" happen...but that's a pretty rare progression also so I doubt we are done with the changes coming on future runs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Wanted to add one more GEFS comment then I'll stop the image spam -- the mean improved drastically, but there is still considerable uncertainty among the ENS members. This might be the most conservative 1"% chance I've seen with a snow mean of ~5" in DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This has morphed into a different animal. It doesn’t surprise me that the ne system seems to be moving out earlier, but that piece over the upper midwest is a fairly recent development that’s having a big impact on this system. Which piece is that? (Apologies, still learning to read the H5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Its out to 120 (which is as far as it goes) on the old Canadian government site. Looks nice but hard to tell too much with the one map it gives. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's too slow with the cutoff low to our southwest leaving us under a strong SE flow and wrecks the mid level's pretty bad. But get a slightly faster progress or less cut off solution and it wouldn't take much to turn this progression into a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So are we worried about suppression or overamped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 We went from a suppressed Georgia and Carolina’s snowstorm to worrying about the strong SE flow wrecking the mid levels within 12 hours. Oh. Weather. You never disappoint. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Looks like 2018 Do you get a commission for bringing that storm up as much as possible or something? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Much like maple syrup, the time it takes for the CMC to run is slow af When they get stuck, I have this vision of someone going along and kicking the computer to get it going again 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Goes up the coast for the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know that models have been all over the place but what time frame is this for? I am heading to Buffalo Friday afternoon for the Bills game and plan on heading back sometime Sunday morning. Thanks as always.Off topic my family is from western NY I’m a big bills Fan LETS GO BUFFALO!!! . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's too slow with the cutoff low to our southwest leaving us under a strong SE flow and wrecks the mid level's pretty bad. But get a slightly faster progress or less cut off solution and it wouldn't take much to turn this progression into a big storm. SLP was super jumpy too. The 5H progression was actually pretty solid, but the SLP was west of where it should be. You can see the jumpiness of the low when you walk through from 00z Monday, onward. Should take a 1993 Superstorm track, not a track over DC. Split hairs with a track over even CAPE's hood would be a big difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 UK has a strong storm just offshore NC at 144.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Last week I said I thought by Tuesday (today) we’d know if we’re in the game for Sunday/Monday. Think we can say we are. Details will be very much variable for another couple days at least. I said after 12z yesterday's runs I wanted to see "changes" by todays 12z runs...that definitely happened lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which piece is that? (Apologies, still learning to read the H5) Look at hour 114 on the gfs right above North Dakota. Watch it as the run progresses get draw into our system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: We went from a suppressed Georgia and Carolina’s snowstorm to worrying about the strong SE flow wrecking the mid levels within 12 hours. Oh. Weather. You never disappoint. Thank god we didn’t do something dumb and create a storm thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 1993 Superstorm You didn’t. Did you? I mean … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: UK has a strong storm just offshore NC at 144.... UKIE has 6" for Atlanta and 12" for Douglas, GA (to the SE). I'll toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said: I know that models have been all over the place but what time frame is this for? I am heading to Buffalo Friday afternoon for the Bills game and plan on heading back sometime Sunday morning. Thanks as always. I have been on that same question as I am driving to Cincinnati for the Bengals playoff game at 4:30 pm Saturday. I think the progression on the potential system is Sunday into Monday. My brother and I have made tentative plans to make the full drive back to Baltimore immediately following the game just in case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 TWC hyping it now...now we know its legitimately...not happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Far too many pieces at play here to be TOO concerned about exact track and P-type 6 days out. It looks like the trend has started to get a monster nor’easter up the coastline. Let’s wait until at least Thursday before we begin to worry too much about minute details. I have a good feeling about this one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CMC precip map at hour 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: So are we worried about suppression or overamped? Both as usual 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now