WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 People probably thinking I was joking about Cleveland lol, but only partly. If you live south of a line from Asheville to Richmond, I think you better temper expectations. This has all the makings IMO of a storm coming across the mid south that pushes a hefty warm wedge in front of it. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Looks like 2018 Best storm I can remember in chapel hill, though some of my wake county NC friends were victim of that awful gradient over Raleigh. I’ll be willing all that yellow blob northeast this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: On the GFS maybe. Euro still has this thing suppressed all the way to the Bahamas. Don't we just throw out the Euro these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 21 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you’re thinking you’re getting the Atlantic system to back into the coast, my recommendation is a rehab center. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Right on cue the bowling ball over the ne now looks like it is lifting out earlier and the ns sw is not quite as deep. If the ost is an indicator these are the trends that will continue. At least the gfs has stopped with the wild swings at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Need a met to tell me an RDU, ezf, to NYC track is unlikely or against climo. Kthnx On my phone so can’t post a graphic, but take a look at 500mb. It’s hard for a shortwave to turn the corner so sharply when it’s still moving SEward and positively tilted coming across the MS river. GFS is about the sharpest corner turn you can see. For it to cut west, it will need to track farther west out in the Plains and/or be neutrally tilted sooner. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Obviously a track like that from the SLP would yield a transition period from snow to IP/ZR, but it was still a very good 5H setup for a front end crush job prior to any changeover. This was a classic I-81 storm track where deformation axis would ride from RNK to HBG. The western side of the LP on the precip field was a little wonky for such a dynamic system. I would see it more defined than what the GFS had. Regardless, the prospects of some snow are definitely on the table. Favored areas probably west of I-95 with most favorable west of Rt 15. Long way to go. No where near settled and big swings are certainly possible. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: This is a completely different system. Please try to keep up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Don't we just throw out the Euro these days? Yes. Trash model. Just ask DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 hours ago, Snowchaser said: At this rate we will see white rain. I’m not getting my hopes up yet. I wouldn’t worry about temps too much here. Plenty of cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can we blend Icon and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looking at the black and white maps but appears the CMC looks similar to GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Operational GFS is definitely riding the NW edge of the ensemble envelope of solutions. If you’re optimistic that means plenty of room to adjust to less of a cutting solution, if you’re pessimistic that means the op is leading the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Too warm, too west, only 11" of digital snow for CHO, which will be gone by the 18z Next. (Am I doing this right?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looking at soundings, I would see this more of an IP than a rain situation outside of south of Rt 50 and east of the Bay. GFS scouring the airmass so fast in the lowest confines of the boundary. Also, the wet bulb aspect of the forecast is bizarre. GFS brings the dew point up to the temperature with no drop in the temp within a 3 hr window. Would call complete BS on that as well. That track has yielded IP plenty of times. ULL is also cold as hell with it dropping to 528dm over Wakefield and 525dm over Dover. Color me skeptical of the reach of pure liquid. 850mb jet is screaming, so a transition would be all but probable, but the pure change to rain probably wouldn't be as likely west of the fall line. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I’m curious, have we ever NOT changed to rain or sleet when the low track is directly over us like that from a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Canadian definitely closely resembles the GFS more than it's 0z run did. It's vastly different than the prior run at H5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS still has a lot of spread but there are fewer members that are uber-suppressed, FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS just coming into range but so far it does not look to support such a western track. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 very difficult to draw it up much better than this broad 500mb trough over the TN valley, confluence over the NE and phasing imminent pretty classic look 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Also -- no lows look poised to run right through Virginia. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: GEFS just coming into range but so far it does not look to support such a western track. Need a comparison map to prior runs at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Need a comparison map to prior runs at the same time Here was 6z. Definitely a shift west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is a completely different system. Please try to keep up This is the ECM fish storm yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Here was 6z. Definitely a shift west. Thank you. Very large shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, RedSky said: This is the ECM fish storm yesterday The storm off the coast is and has been a completely different system. If you’ve been reading here, that’s the system we were saying needed to get out of the way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Massive shift. Hard to overstate. 12z 06z 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEM has it tilting neutral a bit late but it looks pretty damn good so far on h5/vort through 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know that models have been all over the place but what time frame is this for? I am heading to Buffalo Friday afternoon for the Bills game and plan on heading back sometime Sunday morning. Thanks as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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