IronTy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 24 minutes ago, benjammin said: Only the first DT Tweet would give you that idea. The following tweets on the thread are quite clear he thinks it is basically meteorologically impossible. So no aleet incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can’t be posted enough So...give you the cold and you'll take your chances with precip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: So...give you the cold and you'll take your chances with precip? I'm always skeptical during these arctic blasts. Seems like they usually end up cold, dry and windy. They're more impressive from an energy use perspective but the big snow events around here seem to be when things are marginal. At least in my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 How many people are secretly looking at the NAM right now and won't claim it? 5 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: How many people are secretly looking at the NAM right now and won't claim it? H5 digging pretty good out west..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: C’mon man. It only showed a foot of snow. How can he be expected to be happy with that? For you it did. For me it showed 4 inches.....and about 5 miles from a dusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Man, the GEFS and EPS are absolutely all in on extended winter for these parts. GFS deterministic showed a textbook cold outbreak signature for much of the CONUS. GEFS supports a long lasting cold signature. Winter is coming guys, buckle up! 9 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sorry if some of this has been said but my morning are crazy right now and I don't have time to scroll through all the posts. My first thought when I saw the 6z GFS was "that's unlikely" simply because of "how" it pulled that off. There were 2 keys to what it did, the first was simply trending west and slower with the NS SW diving in from western Canada that becomes the storm. That part I can see happening because its been a trend across guidance the last 24 hours. That slowing allows more time for the suppressive flow to relax and that is critical because no guidance is backing off on the suppressive look at the start of the weekend. But even with that slowing the second just as critical part is how it handled the TPV lobes to our northeast and that was the part I found hard to buy into. It did a fujiwara pinwheel dance where the initial vortex lifts while a second one pinwheels around it to the west, dives in, and does a complete phase/capture and pulls the low straight up the coast. That's an incredibly complicated evolution. It can and has happened but its rare and even more rare for guidance to pick up on that and model it correctly at any type of lead. Frankly thats the kind of synoptic setup where I could still see the kind of huge last minute busts we used to get all the time still happen. Its so many moving parts and little details and models struggle resolving phasing in a fast flow to begin with. So my initial reaction was...yea right. But then the 6z Euro control went all in on that exact evolution. And scanning across all the overnight guidance...and specifically those features up top that seem to be the key, there was a trend across all guidance towards what the GFS spit out. Slower SW that becomes the storm...and a trend towards a duel pinwheeling of the flow up top. So I guess on review I am SLIGHTLY more optimistic then I was after just seeing the GFS op run...but to be clear the preponderance of evidence is still against it fully pulling off the phase/capture we need for that outcome, and even if the majority was showing that I would still warn that this is the type of setup that is very likely to have significant changes even at the last minute because of the crazy amount of moving parts in this equation. To sum it all up...I have no freaking idea. 4 3 9 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Man, the GEFS and EPS are absolutely all in on extended winter for these parts. GFS deterministic showed a textbook cold outbreak signature for much of the CONUS. GEFS supports a long lasting cold signature. Winter is coming guys, buckle up! For sure, lots of cold and active. Even Walt Drag is excited and the super long range modeling keeps extending the winter pattern. Awesome mean at 360 hours from the Euro and the latest CFSv2 has gone colder in early Feb. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How many people are secretly looking at the NAM right now and won't claim it? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. First time in many a year that I can recall cold and snow setting up shop for a long run in early to mid Jan. Normally it is time for the Jan thaw, not this year. Excellent !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: Now look, I'm not saying I was one of those people, but a friend told me about this and yes, I liked what I saw. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). Thanks for pointing this out Chuck... very interesting...that at the subsurface we actually have a modoki nino SST profile...and we have a VERY midoki nino pattern. That is an interesting concurrence. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, frd said: Solid, just looking at that stripe it must be a 6z GFS type evolution right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. Why cant it start on dec 23? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Solid, just looking at that stripe it must be a 6z GFS type evolution right? ICON came way North 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs has a southern stream type storm and track in the east but tracks first through Manitoba, Des Moines, St Louie. Not much of a jump/redevelop at all either. Not saying anything is impossible but when I can't recall a reasonable similar scenario at any time in the past, my doubt meter spikes. That type of synoptic setup happened several times in the 1950's 60s and 70s but has not been common at all since. And definitely with you on the skepticism of that look. Not sure what happened that long ago is really relevant to what is likely in today's climate. But I suppose it means it's not "meteorologically impossible" as someone likes to say...but maybe just more "meteorologically improbable" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. Why cant it start on dec 23? I don't know...but there has been 2 very distinct "pattern flip" trigger points to the US winter patterns over the last 30 years or so. One is in November and the other just after xmas. We have had plenty of cold/snowy patterns early but they tend to wane and expire just before xmas. And we have had many colder periods start just after xmas. For whatever reason xmas itself seems to fall in a dead zone. Whether that is just really bad luck or there is some legitimate causality out there to my anecdotal observations I don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sweet animation 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, frd said: For sure, lots of cold and active. Even Walt Drag is excited and the super long range modeling keeps extending the winter pattern. A slight digression, but as a kid growing up in southern New England, Walt Drag's AFDs were a winter highlight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Pretty useful website I came across. Has the NAM and HRRR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, hstorm said: A slight digression, but as a kid growing up in southern New England, Walt Drag's AFDs were a winter highlight. Yup. Having Walt at Mt. Holly was a treat. When he gets excited, hang onto your hat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 22 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). If we are, then it's about damn time. Our last El Niño was 6 years ago. We are due. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, frd said: I don't think I've ever seen the ICON spit out more than 12" of snow, anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, frd said: ICON came way North I love how TT just completely skips hours 102 through 144 for the ICON 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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