benjammin Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Only the first DT Tweet would give you that idea. The following tweets on the thread are quite clear he thinks it is basically meteorologically impossible. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ah, a buffet of goodies possibly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, benjammin said: Only the first DT Tweet would give you that idea. The following tweets on the thread are quite clear he thinks it is basically meteorologically impossible. Thanks. I can only handle one DT post per day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Can anyone answer as to whether or not RAOB sites have improved for model data purposes out in sparse regions of Canada to help us with the vort inbound and timing purposes? With satellite sampling the argument for the data sparse regions is not as substantial as some make it out to be. Obviously, we'd rather have RAOBs - but satellites do a really good job of sampling in the holes between sample sites. Would argue that GOES and POES do way more to improve forecasts than adding one or two RAOB sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Cobalt said: Looks way more similar to Feb 2014 Yes. The 06Z GFS has that more classic Miller A track, which would equate to a more climo snowfall distribution. In other words, MBY here near Rte 50 east of 95 would more likely have some mixing potential than be in the max snow zone this time around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace. He’s been beaten. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Good morning y'all. Looking at guidance this morning, it's pretty prudent to lead with this potential setup is riddled with fine details and the probability that we are at the final solution is extremely low. In order for the sub-forum to get what the GFS just advertised, you need everything right in terms of 5H spacing, phasing timing, and thermodynamic structure to yield a scenario like that. Absolutely in no way am I saying it can't happen like that. The major storms, especially the historic storms all have that occur, but this isn't a split phased bomb where a southern jet gets merged with a NS vort. This is very much a deep digger, translating into a Miller B bomb that could climb the coast due to increased spacing between the TPV over Quebec and the second s/w progressing through the northern plains at the same time our storm is going off. Timing timing timing. It is everything with this setup, but there is absolutely an environment available for something truly special. We haven't even gotten into the fine details of frontogenic forcing, jet stream dynamics, complexities of LLJ structure and positioning. The big ones are special for a reason, so keep a level head and don't swing hard on each run. That's Ji's job 14 16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC Can the GFS win again?! Im a simple guy, do you have the funny precip map instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: The GFS went from another Boxing Day 2010 to another January 2000 in the next run. Obviously this is all very far from certain and it's still being figured out but let's hope the final outcome is similar to this latest run. Yep, and my guess is we are nowhere close to the way this will all evolve and major changes from run to run are still in store. I mean, look at the GFS now basically pushing the system back in time. It used to be a weekend system and now it's mostly a late Sunday/Monday storm now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, yoda said: This works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support. Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way. At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark. Thanks for that Weather Will is going to post a deceptive accumulation map with 25 inches being gray and 100 inches being purple and say things look bad. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 24 minutes ago, benjammin said: Only the first DT Tweet would give you that idea. The following tweets on the thread are quite clear he thinks it is basically meteorologically impossible. So no aleet incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can’t be posted enough So...give you the cold and you'll take your chances with precip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: So...give you the cold and you'll take your chances with precip? I'm always skeptical during these arctic blasts. Seems like they usually end up cold, dry and windy. They're more impressive from an energy use perspective but the big snow events around here seem to be when things are marginal. At least in my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 How many people are secretly looking at the NAM right now and won't claim it? 5 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: How many people are secretly looking at the NAM right now and won't claim it? H5 digging pretty good out west..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 49 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: C’mon man. It only showed a foot of snow. How can he be expected to be happy with that? For you it did. For me it showed 4 inches.....and about 5 miles from a dusting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Man, the GEFS and EPS are absolutely all in on extended winter for these parts. GFS deterministic showed a textbook cold outbreak signature for much of the CONUS. GEFS supports a long lasting cold signature. Winter is coming guys, buckle up! 9 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sorry if some of this has been said but my morning are crazy right now and I don't have time to scroll through all the posts. My first thought when I saw the 6z GFS was "that's unlikely" simply because of "how" it pulled that off. There were 2 keys to what it did, the first was simply trending west and slower with the NS SW diving in from western Canada that becomes the storm. That part I can see happening because its been a trend across guidance the last 24 hours. That slowing allows more time for the suppressive flow to relax and that is critical because no guidance is backing off on the suppressive look at the start of the weekend. But even with that slowing the second just as critical part is how it handled the TPV lobes to our northeast and that was the part I found hard to buy into. It did a fujiwara pinwheel dance where the initial vortex lifts while a second one pinwheels around it to the west, dives in, and does a complete phase/capture and pulls the low straight up the coast. That's an incredibly complicated evolution. It can and has happened but its rare and even more rare for guidance to pick up on that and model it correctly at any type of lead. Frankly thats the kind of synoptic setup where I could still see the kind of huge last minute busts we used to get all the time still happen. Its so many moving parts and little details and models struggle resolving phasing in a fast flow to begin with. So my initial reaction was...yea right. But then the 6z Euro control went all in on that exact evolution. And scanning across all the overnight guidance...and specifically those features up top that seem to be the key, there was a trend across all guidance towards what the GFS spit out. Slower SW that becomes the storm...and a trend towards a duel pinwheeling of the flow up top. So I guess on review I am SLIGHTLY more optimistic then I was after just seeing the GFS op run...but to be clear the preponderance of evidence is still against it fully pulling off the phase/capture we need for that outcome, and even if the majority was showing that I would still warn that this is the type of setup that is very likely to have significant changes even at the last minute because of the crazy amount of moving parts in this equation. To sum it all up...I have no freaking idea. 4 3 9 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Man, the GEFS and EPS are absolutely all in on extended winter for these parts. GFS deterministic showed a textbook cold outbreak signature for much of the CONUS. GEFS supports a long lasting cold signature. Winter is coming guys, buckle up! For sure, lots of cold and active. Even Walt Drag is excited and the super long range modeling keeps extending the winter pattern. Awesome mean at 360 hours from the Euro and the latest CFSv2 has gone colder in early Feb. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How many people are secretly looking at the NAM right now and won't claim it? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. First time in many a year that I can recall cold and snow setting up shop for a long run in early to mid Jan. Normally it is time for the Jan thaw, not this year. Excellent !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: Now look, I'm not saying I was one of those people, but a friend told me about this and yes, I liked what I saw. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). Thanks for pointing this out Chuck... very interesting...that at the subsurface we actually have a modoki nino SST profile...and we have a VERY midoki nino pattern. That is an interesting concurrence. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, frd said: Solid, just looking at that stripe it must be a 6z GFS type evolution right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. Why cant it start on dec 23? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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