psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 12:08 AM, WxUSAF said: ^precip pattern looks Miller B-ish? Expand Earlier panels have precip in the gulf coast. It’s a hybrid signal. There is a NS wave diving in and an STJ wave in the Gulf Coast. Members get to a big storm multiple ways. Some phase the two late off the mid Atlantic. Some of those still manage to get us with a 12z Gfs type solution. Some Miss though. Some get the NS out of the way first then bring the stj wave up. Some get the stj ahead and phase the NS in behind and some of those go nuts and cut like the storm last weekend. The non storm minority cluster have the NS dive in on top and crush everything. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Damn, I'm kinda digging the first threat 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 1:42 AM, stormtracker said: Damn, I'm kinda digging the first threat Expand No thread. Lol 1 1 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 1:44 AM, Interstate said: No thread. LolEver. LolSent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 1:28 AM, losetoa6 said: HH Eps with a positive shift for the day 5/6 threat . NS further east out ahead and more emphasis on the stj sw energy in the gulf . Both the 18z Euro and control are stronger with the sw ejecting out of the sw at hour 90. Expand The trend so far this January has been for the NS to be modeled as faster when closing in range.. reel this one in! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 GFS would suggest major temp issues with anything on Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 2:03 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS would suggest major temp issues with anything on Tuesday Expand Not to mention lack of precip issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 2:03 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS would suggest major temp issues with anything on Tuesday Expand You mean the same GFS which did so well with temps this morning?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 2:16 AM, ravensrule said: You mean the same GFS which did so well with temps this morning?. Expand It runs cold brother. Once you adjust for that it's an incredible model for all forecast ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Gfs trying for next Tuesday. Healthy wave down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 hmm.. SS energy is a bit more held back at hr 102 for the GFS compared to 18z.. might give it a bit more of a chance to separate from the northern stream energy Slightly healthier press of cold air as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 2:38 AM, losetoa6 said: Nam shows some snow showers from a Sunday after church clipper Expand GFS agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Gfs may look interesting at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:21 AM, Ji said: Gfs may look interesting at 162 Expand Even more interesting at 177 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:21 AM, Ji said: Gfs may look interesting at 162 Expand Yeah looks more 12z-like so far...slower SS wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:22 AM, LP08 said: Even more interesting at 177 Expand Very much the case it's more in-line with it's ensembles now as expected. 18z was an odd run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Meh...sloppy phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:29 AM, Ji said: Meh...sloppy phase Expand Perfectly fine for D9...it's close and the idea is there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Becoming a very frustrating winter for Northern va to the northeast 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:33 AM, Ji said: Becoming a very frustrating winter for Northern va to the northeast Expand Don't sleep on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:41 AM, Chris78 said: Don't sleep on Tuesday Will be sleeping really well with that rain potential. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:57 AM, CentralVaNATS said: Will be sleeping really well with that rain potential. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Expand Still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Well, seems like the the GFS, CMC, and Euro all have a storm nearby...I'd imagine that's kind of a decent sign so far? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 4:33 AM, Ji said: Becoming a very frustrating winter for Northern va to the northeast Expand I can never tell if you’re being serious. Why are you so concerned about verbatim surface maps and timing of phases in the long range? You know things will change 500x between now and then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 8:54 AM, jayyy said: I can never tell if you’re being serious. Why are you so concerned about verbatim surface maps and timing of phases in the long range? You know things will change 500x between now and then. Expand He lives for the op runs and the digital snow they depict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Between the energy coming in over the the top of the amplified ridge out west and the TPV sending lobes southward, the northern stream is a chaotic mess. This is a pattern that requires nearly perfect timing. The problem with Tues-Wed is we are in between vortex lobes as the ss wave approaches. So the coldest air has departed from the previous one and the next one is dropping down over the upper MW just as the southern wave is moving east underneath. There are 2 problems as depicted on the GFS- the flow is compressed in front of new trough dropping south which dampens the southern wave as it moves east, and we aren't very cold as we are 'in between' troughs. At this range guidance surely doesn't have the features and timing quite right, so we keep watching. I have no idea on the next one, other than it remains a window for something. The tendency overall in this (progressive) pattern is for low pressure to form offshore along the strong thermal boundary. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 New Thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Nine days left in January. Plenty (hopefully) to still discuss in this thread in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 way to early for a Feb thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/20/2022 at 10:34 PM, Kmlwx said: I dunno - If I'm remembering correctly he described it as "dreadful" - but again might be remembering wrong. The day @Ji describes a 36" blizzard as "dreadful" we know we are all in trouble. Expand He found it "dreadful" because one of Ben Franklin's models had predicted 48" a few days before... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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