January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

Hmmm... that image at 300 and 306 looks AWFULLY familiar on the 12z GFS...

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Now, one would think that the LR GFS at 282 would be good in the next few frames for something big...

By then my fear would be the trough retrogrades too much and a west track becomes increasingly likely with something amplified. Right now we want something amplified with the trough axis. We got really unlucky with the timing wrt the last amped up storm but in general with the axis right on the coast more amplified is better.  After the 30th it might get west if ideal and we would want weaker waves at that point. With enough cold can still get front end love just talking about how to get a flush hit here. We will likely continue to pad stats with minor stuff either way in this pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Hmmm... that image at 300 and 306 looks AWFULLY familiar on the 12z GFS...

Yea but after we get a foot of snow on the 29th a couple inches of snow and ice a few days later is fine!  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but after we get a foot of snow on the 29th a couple inches of snow and ice a few days later is fine!  

?

DCA is at 7" total snow at 312... and 3-4 of that comes tomorrow supposedly

i81 and go west is where the snow is on those days

[LP08]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs was sooooooooooo sooooooooooooo soooooooooooooooooooooooo close to pulling off a monster around the same time I’m very interested in. Just had a sloppy phase between 3 pieces. But it was close. Ask me how close. 

JB Hoffman? Lol

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

JB Hoffman? Lol

Pattern is still ripe AF for at least the next 2 weeks.  We're not done just because Saturday looks like a fail for most of us.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

?

DCA is at 7" total snow at 312... and 3-4 of that comes tomorrow supposedly

i81 and go west is where the snow is on those days

So you’re saying that on that run DC will be 5” above avg snowfall by February 1 and that’s the total disaster fail scenario?  
 

But what I was really talking about was the potential. Yea if just comes together late day 9 and over phases day 12 but you’re worrying about those details at those ranges when you know both storns will look different in 6 hours.  Just being close at those ranges is as good as a hit.  Probably better so we don’t have to suffer all those clown maps. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Pattern is still ripe AF for at least the next 2 weeks.  We're not done just because Saturday looks like a fail for most of us.

I thought he was going to mention ‘93 with the triple phase.  There is going to be a big storm as that pattern starts to shift.  It’s exciting especially in Nina

[psuhoffman]

Don’t totally sleep on the 25 either. There is a healthy SS wave but the timing is off right now with the NS out ahead and so it ends up a NS miller b screw job. But if that timing adjusts like 12 hours on those waves suddenly it’s a hybrid and we’re in the game. It’s still at a lead where that kind of adjustment is well within typical error. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t totally sleep on the 25 either. There is a healthy SS wave but the timing is off right now with the NS out ahead and so it ends up a NS miller b screw job. But if that timing adjusts like 12 hours on those waves suddenly it’s a hybrid and we’re in the game. It’s still at a lead where that kind of adjustment is well within typical error. 

GGEM has sort of an overrunning hit today at that time.  Verbatim nice 3-6"/4-8" event.

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So you’re saying that on that run DC will be 5” above avg snowfall by February 1 and that’s the total disaster fail scenario?  
 

But what I was really talking about was the potential. Yea if just comes together late day 9 and over phases day 12 but you’re worrying about those details at those ranges when you know both storns will look different in 6 hours.  Just being close at those ranges is as good as a hit.  Probably better so we don’t have to suffer all those clown maps. 

Now see I'm glad YOU said this...lol But yeah at this range as long as the idea is there that's what matters!

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM has sort of an overrunning hit today at that time.  Verbatim nice 3-6"/4-8" event.

Just looked…I’d be a little nervous relying all on the NS wave like that. BUT…did you see how close that was to timing up the NS and SS there. It was barely off and so it delayed the phase and was too late for us but it was super close. Even closer than the Gfs. I wouldn’t give up on the adjustment we need there at all from this range. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just looked…I’d be a little nervous relying all on the NS wave like that. BUT…did you see how close that was to timing up the NS and SS there. It was barely off and so it delayed the phase and was too late for us but it was super close. Even closer than the Gfs. I wouldn’t give up on the adjustment we need there at all from this range. 

Next Tuesday/Wednesday is clearly the next threat window after Saturday.  Been teases/hits on the guidance for a couple days already in that timeframe.  

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Next Tuesday/Wednesday is clearly the next threat window after Saturday.  Been teases/hits on the guidance for a couple days already in that timeframe.  

Another storm another chance for the Euro to spit out 20 inches of virtual snow.

[87storms]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t totally sleep on the 25 either. There is a healthy SS wave but the timing is off right now with the NS out ahead and so it ends up a NS miller b screw job. But if that timing adjusts like 12 hours on those waves suddenly it’s a hybrid and we’re in the game. It’s still at a lead where that kind of adjustment is well within typical error. 

the canadian looked close to a mid-atlantic phase with that one.

[wasnow215]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just looked…I’d be a little nervous relying all on the NS wave like that. BUT…did you see how close that was to timing up the NS and SS there. It was barely off and so it delayed the phase and was too late for us but it was super close. Even closer than the Gfs. I wouldn’t give up on the adjustment we need there at all from this range. 

Around which time? 1/27 ish?

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

i81 and go west is where the snow is on those days

Perfect

[WinterWxLuvr]

53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Next Tuesday/Wednesday is clearly the next threat window after Saturday.  Been teases/hits on the guidance for a couple days already in that timeframe.  

Just how we roll. Every 3-4 days 

[mattskiva]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s exactly why I wouldn’t want to be there. I’m not much on transferring city life to the mountains.

I'm actually kind of surprised to hear there are a lot of Leesburg people in Deep Creek.  Davis/Canaan is like 45-60 minutes closer now with US 48.  I always thought of Deep Creek as more of the Baltimore crowd.

 

[jayyy]

We get SO close (on a few different occasions) to seeing a big snowstorm in our area….. details to be ironed out later of course…. but man, if we can manage a few 3-6/4-8” type events over the next 2-3 weeks, that certainly wouldn’t be a fail either. We’d see the major terminals over climo and many of us would be well above where we should be by end of January.

Of course, getting a big KU would satisfy the weenie craving during such a tasty pattern, but you won’t find me complaining if we manage to pile up between 1-2 feet of snow over the next few weeks with multiple advisory / low end warning snowfalls one after the other. Especially with the advertised cold, as snowpack would largely remain in tact throughout the period.
 

Lots of fun tracking ahead of us! Can’t wait to do it with you knuckleheads. 

[yoda]

12z EURO will now play the old favorite, "I'm going to hold back the cutoff low" brought to you by the favorite band, the Stuck in the SW

Day 3-5 that is

[yoda]

Our second tune is brought to us by our other favorite, the GL low!

[Solution Man]

Just now, yoda said:

Our second tune is brought to us by our other favorite, the GL low!

Another Looney Tune coming up

[mattskiva]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We get SO close (on a few different occasions) to seeing a big snowstorm in our area….. details to be ironed out later of course…. but man, if we can manage a few 3-6/4-8” type events over the next 2-3 weeks, that certainly wouldn’t be a fail either. We’d see the major terminals over climo and many of us would be well above where we should be by end of January.

Of course, getting a big KU would satisfy the weenie craving during such a tasty pattern, but you won’t find me complaining if we manage to pile up between 1-2 feet of snow over the next few weeks with multiple advisory / low end warning snowfalls one after the other. Especially with the advertised cold, as snowpack would largely remain in tact throughout the period.
 

Lots of fun tracking ahead of us! Can’t wait to do it with you knuckleheads. 

January's already been a lot of fun - even with some close misses - this year has been great compared to recent years.  I've had an inch or more of snow on the ground here in Loudoun pretty much continuously for over two weeks.  That's a good winter in my book.

And I would always rather see two feet of snow in Tucker County, where I can actually ski it.  Keep dumping on the mountains with a solid base of a few inches on the coastal plain, and I call that a success.

 

[Solution Man]

Boom?

[yoda]

that h5 energy washed out quick looking from 150 to 168

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Boom?

Cold rain at 156 and 162... boom indeed

[WxUSAF]

Just now, yoda said:

Cold rain at 156 and 162... boom indeed

It's close.  Sort of similar to the GFS, but with a stronger southern stream low.  Move that northern stream a little faster so it can drag the boundary back southward and that's a nice hit.  

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Cold rain at 156 and 162... boom indeed

It's  the Euro....can't believe I'm saying that

[yoda]

lol 12z EURO completely fell apart 144-168