WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Wouldn’t take much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:24 AM, RIC_WX said: If you are buying the land this year and expect a cabin next year, you better get hustling. Ain’t nothing moving fast at the lake. Ask me how I know. Expand Why would you buy at the lake, vs in Davis or Canaan which gets 2x as much snow out of every storm, has actual vertical relief, and is easily accessible from the Byrd Superhighway? Of course, land there isn't any cheaper right now, and it's also a 2 year wait minimum to build. So instead of sitting in my slopeside house, I get to ski by my slopeside empty lot and stay in the Canaan Valley Lodge. First world problems, I suppose. 20" of new snow made for pretty good 1200 vert glade skiing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 So Day 9 and 10 Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Ha...after all that, now I kind of...KIND of wanna see the snowmapians for the modeled d9/10 crushing on the Euro...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 7:41 AM, yoda said: So Day 9 and 10 Euro... Expand Really like the 27th-29th for a potential Archambault event with +PNA index falling near this time period. Way too far out to get too excited, but there is definitely a signal across the guidance for some kind of east coast event during this time frame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 7:41 AM, yoda said: So Day 9 and 10 Euro... Expand drool worthy, just stalls and dumps snow over us with no sign of stopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 11:48 AM, SnowenOutThere said: drool worthy, just stalls and dumps snow over us with no sign of stoppingWill have to roll with the GFS. It only shows it on the yesterday's 18z for for that time-frame and it's another cutter. Last two runs lost it. Time will tell with all the atmospheric chaos Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 7:41 AM, yoda said: So Day 9 and 10 Euro... Expand GFS has that ridiculous 959mb inland bomb around the same timeframe in yesterday's 18z run. Definitely a timeframe to watch. I think PSU mentioned the other day that around that time as another window of interest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Winter may be over guys. Look at this trending When the +PNA breaks, it might get very warm. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 5:41 AM, mattskiva said: Why would you buy at the lake, vs in Davis or Canaan which gets 2x as much snow out of every storm, has actual vertical relief, and is easily accessible from the Byrd Superhighway? Of course, land there isn't any cheaper right now, and it's also a 2 year wait minimum to build. So instead of sitting in my slopeside house, I get to ski by my slopeside empty lot and stay in the Canaan Valley Lodge. First world problems, I suppose. 20" of new snow made for pretty good 1200 vert glade skiing today. Expand Nothing against Davis. Deep Creek is like Leesburg west. We have quite the extended social network here. My kiddos find WISP plenty intimidating and neither the wife nor I are really capable to ski. We are from RIC after all, no one in our xennial cohort grew up skiing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 1:49 PM, frd said: Can you clarify the period of interest that you mentioned, do you feel that the potential exists for a moderate event for the coastal plain during the time of the Jan. 25th to the 30th? Expand If you look at both the gefs and eps and loop the h5 anomalies you can clearly see an stj wave ejected east on the 25th. At the same time the NS is diving into the high plains much further west than the waves before. That setup then repeats a few days later and everything pinwheels around. That look seems way more likely to allow amplification along the east coast without needing perfect timing and phasing. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:42 PM, RIC_WX said: Nothing against Davis. Deep Creek is like Leesburg west. We have quite the extended social network here. My kiddos find WISP plenty intimidating and neither the wife nor I are really capable to ski. We are from RIC after all, no one in our xennial cohort grew up skiing. Expand That’s exactly why I wouldn’t want to be there. I’m not much on transferring city life to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:39 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Winter may be over guys. Look at this trending When the +PNA breaks, it might get very warm. Expand Thanks for the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is pretty brutal in the Pacific, again the only other time I saw sustained +400dm -PNA as an ensemble mean 12-15 days out was before December. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:48 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: This is pretty brutal in the Pacific, again the only other time I saw sustained +400dm -PNA as an ensemble mean 13-15 days out was before December. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Expand So, a KU event the first week of February as the pattern flips. Got it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:45 PM, psuhoffman said: If you look at both the gefs and eps and loop the h5 anomalies you can clearly see an stj wave ejected east on the 25th. At the same time the NS is diving into the high plains much further west than the waves before. That setup then repeats a few days later and everything pinwheels around. That look seems way more likely to allow amplification along the east coast without needing perfect timing and phasing. Expand Huh...wondering if that's the kind of setup that, if it indeed verifies, could produces a long tracker...? (I guess we'll find out over the weekend, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:50 PM, nw baltimore wx said: So, a KU event the first week of February as the pattern flips. Got it. Expand this is a pretty strong -NAO, we might have something coming out of it short term. We don't historically get big storms rising out of +PNA to -PNA. >582dm in the N. Atlantic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:59 AM, IronTy said: Oh yeah, that bad? I'm having a hard time getting the realtor for the land to even call me back business must be too good I just got pricing back for plans on our "modest" 1700sqft log cabin we plan on building and it was $900K. Not including land. Gimme a break, we really need a stock market crash and soon so these builders come back down to reality. They're drunk on power. Rising interest rates should help us all pretty soon. Expand Whoa?! Forgive me for butting in but how is that cost justified. Access issues? Distance from suppliers? That’s $530/ sq ft.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 1:47 PM, mattie g said: GFS has that ridiculous 959mb inland bomb around the same timeframe in yesterday's 18z run. Definitely a timeframe to watch. I think PSU mentioned the other day that around that time as another window of interest. Expand From 10 days ago I liked the 20-25 but edited that when it became obvious the pattern was retrograding slower than expected. Some idea just a few days delayed. everything’s been a slow progression this year. It all went kinda as expected just delayed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:57 PM, psuhoffman said: From 10 days ago I liked the 20-25 but edited that when it became obvious the pattern was retrograding slower than expected. Some idea just a few days delayed. everything’s been a slow progression this year. It all went kinda as expected just delayed. Expand What’s your thoughts for February? -pna and southeast ridge? Perhaps the first half of February isn’t bad because of the slow progression of everything this winter (as you stated above) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:01 PM, Allsnow said: What’s your thoughts for February? -pna and southeast ridge? Perhaps the first half of February isn’t bad because of the slow progression of everything this winter (as you stated above) Expand I think it’s apparent eventually the pac is going to revert to the Nina base state and the -pna will return. Don’t worry if you forget, Chuck will remind you 17 times by the end of the day. But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re done for snow chances the rest of winter. Some factors… 1) the pac pattern advertised is a little east of December’s. The trough in the western pac is east of Japan and the ridge axis is east of the Aleutians. That’s not as awful. 2) the pac ridge is extremely poleward. That will at least dump cold into N Amer. If it was flat with a +AO that’s pac puke game over time. 3) there is cold around to to start also. It’s possible weaker waves could eject and with lucky timing we could get chances even in an otherwise warmer pattern 4) it looks like Feb starts with a +AO NAO and so we likely content with the SE ridge. But if we do get another round of blocking in Feb and March that pac look can be mitigated. Blocking overcame that exact pac look to lead to snowstorms in Feb 2006 and March 2018. But that part of the equation is unknown 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 2:50 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Huh...wondering if that's the kind of setup that, if it indeed verifies, could produces a long tracker...? (I guess we'll find out over the weekend, lol) Expand Eff a long tracker. I want a 24 hour tracker that produces a foot 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:26 PM, psuhoffman said: I think it’s apparent eventually the pac is going to revert to the Nina base state and the -pna will return. Don’t worry if you forget, Chuck will remind you 17 times by the end of the day. But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re done for snow chances the rest of winter. Some factors… 1) the pac pattern advertised is a little east of December’s. The trough in the western pac is east of Japan and the ridge axis is east of the Aleutians. That’s not as awful. 2) the pac ridge is extremely poleward. That will at least dump cold into N Amer. If it was flat with a +AO that’s pac puke game over time. 3) there is cold around to to start also. It’s possible weaker waves could eject and with lucky timing we could get chances even in an otherwise warmer pattern 4) it looks like Feb starts with a +AO NAO and so we likely content with the SE ridge. But if we do get another round of blocking in Feb and March that pac look can be mitigated. Blocking overcame that exact pac look to lead to snowstorms in Feb 2006 and March 2018. But that part of the equation is unknown Expand Thank you. I agree, as long as we don’t get a historic-pna (like December) we should have overrunning chances. Obviously, this idea is based that we don’t fade away that poleward ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Eff a long tracker. I want a 24 hour tracker that produces a foot Expand Hey that works too! (Was Commutagedon kinda like that?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 588dm now off the West coast, largest of all model runs so far. We are beating 2015's recent record acclimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 3:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Eff a long tracker. I want a 24 hour tracker that produces a foot Expand Well, here I am. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Seriously, what's on tap next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:17 PM, stormtracker said: Seriously, what's on tap next. Expand Nothing right now... but @psuhoffman was saying watch late next week I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 On 1/19/2022 at 4:17 PM, stormtracker said: Well, here I am. Expand Just woke up from your dream?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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