TSSN+ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, MDsnowPRO said: I must be such a noob that I’m missing something. Euro still looks like a hit to me. The trend is not our friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, MDsnowPRO said: I must be such a noob that I’m missing something. Euro still looks like a hit to me. Trending markedly towards a non hit though, and given the setup it’s showing more likely to continue that trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: about 4-6 for DC. South and east does better. Tidwater, outer banks wrecked tho. The bad trend continues. North Baltimore gets something, right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Still digs the Northern stream better than the GFS but definitely leaving more of the southern stream behind compared to 0Z I was thinking the same. If that dig in the northern stream combined with even a modestly better ejection of the SW energy than the GFS did, then it would be much better around these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: What we really need to hope is what I posted yesterday, that the GFS and Euro meet in the middle. Uh, that's basically what the 12z Euro is showing. Just now, Kleimax said: North Baltimore gets something, right ? Looks like 2-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: The trend is not our friend. It didn’t help I was looking at yesterday’s 12z. *face meet palm* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Uh, that's basically what the 12z Euro is showing. Looks like 2-4 This would be a good event. It is of course trending away from a monster and of course it could trend way suppressed but it's only Tuesday. We're in the game for a snowstorm still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I was thinking the same. If that dig in the northern stream combined with even a modestly better ejection of the SW energy than the GFS did, then it would be much better around these parts. That's basically our best hope attm. Or models just having a hard time with the SS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, Steve25 said: I didn't even have anything left Monday morning lol. Lol We had a little on the grass but that was about the extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Uh, that's basically what the 12z Euro is showing. Looks like 2-4 I would say if we got a positive trend from the GFS, then maybe. Definitely not showing the same thing now and the GFS went the other way at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Up to I guess 90 hour 6z cutoff, was the 12z euro better then the 6z euro? Looking for something positive…lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Somebody post the prettier maps. These SV maps are some shit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Guys, we still have the EPS to hold our hopes on for a few more minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I would say if we got a positive trend from the GFS, then maybe. Definitely not showing the same thing now and the GFS went the other way at 12z. Huh? You said halfway. The 0z Euro showed a best. The GFS showed zip and continued to do so. This run of the Euro is about halfway. I mean eventually, the Euro may cave with further runs. Are you always this deb-ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Alright so what we got past this one? Hey maybe we can score on the 100th anniversary of the Knickerbocker? (Jan 27-28th...just without the tragedy, obviously!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern. The mean ridge is on/off the west coast. That's not Position A for a MECS. The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing. A very tough thread the needle. With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions. So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still. I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite. Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome. Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Pretty good for southern Maryland. But it can't happen because Climo or something. 2 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Wouldn’t we rather it be Suppressed now versus a cutter? Seems like in the final 24 hours before onset, these things seem weird to start to move west. Or does the current high placement not allow that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: It's like a two-day storm for Norfolk/VA Beach... pretty sweet down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 DT is having a brutal winter of forecasting so far. Embarrassing really. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Huh? You said halfway. The 0z Euro showed a best. The GFS showed zip and continued to do so. This run of the Euro is about halfway. I mean eventually, the Euro may cave with further runs. Are you always this deb-ish? Now you know I'm not. But the Euro is just not the pedestal model it was, and we've seen its performance this season on some systems. That being said, as I mentioned earlier, the flow is just too fast and progressive to have more than a Bob Chill type 3-6/4-8 type event. But that would still likely occur south of us because of where the energy is interacting and the digging of the streams. Lots of reasons not to buy into the good runs besides it being the only model showing snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 It still looks good. I’ll take half of what’s shown if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, MDsnowPRO said: Wouldn’t we rather it be Suppressed now versus a cutter? Seems like in the final 24 hours before onset, these things seem weird to start to move west. Or does the current high placement not allow that? If that trend benefits DC you can guarantee it ain’t happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 The euro brought in a much deeper ns feature around hour 78 up in North Dakota which wasn’t there at 0z that I don’t think helped our cause either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This Euro outcome makes more sense given the broader longwave pattern. The mean ridge is on/off the west coast. That's not Position A for a MECS. The earlier MECS outcomes were predicated on perfect phasing/wave spacing. A very tough thread the needle. With so many waves in the flow, it makes more sense that you have a single wave driving the bus to create a storm rather than complicated wave interactions. So, with that in mind, this Euro outcome is quite nice still. I think @WinterWxLuvr mentioned earlier that the outcome now depends on the northern stream shortwave and that looks right to me given the 12z suite. Deeper and we get a Euro like outcome. Flatter/progressive and it's the GFS. Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: Kuchera will have better ground truth this time around. One thing that I don't think a lot of people are factoring with this setup is the ratios. This is going to be a cold smoke when it comes in. The thermals are absolutely amazing for these parts. You get any ascent in the picture at all, and you'll pile up snow nicely. Banding factors be damned as well. There's a lot that can bring a solid advisory criteria snow a fair chunk of the sub-forum and warning criteria most likely confined to areas south of Rt 50. Add the snow from previous day and it's a solid few day period. KU potential is low as long as the southern wave stays disconnected, but a sharp northern vort can absolutely deliver here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I've been putting it off and trying not to accept this new reality, but I'm officially on board with the GFS as our new king. Euro on its knees begging for the GFS to be merciful with him lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This run makes me think we are about to witness the unmentionable storm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: DT is having a brutal winter of forecasting so far. Embarrassing really. DT is god awful....the early Jan storm he said the GFS was full of Sh*t It ended up being nearly spot on......this past weekend he barked non stop about the big winter storm that didn't happen for much of Virginia, now barking on this one only to watch it slowly slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: This run makes me think we are about to witness the unmentionable storm again I don't think they're the same thing...besides wasn't that one a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now