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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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  On 1/17/2022 at 6:39 PM, stormtracker said:

No, but seriously yall.  In normal times, this forum would be going kinda nuts with this Euro run.  Now, we're all sitting back, passing a J and like....

"oh.  that's cool. Where are the Doritos."  

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It is a bit weird.  Euro inside D5?  That used to be cash money.  Hopefully still is?  But can't deny the GFS has been doing very well this month.  GGEM and crazy uncle Ukie have been all over the place.  

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  On 1/17/2022 at 6:39 PM, WxMan1 said:

Yeah, it certainly looks like a cold system at low levels (surface temps in the 20s), but as we know, what do the thermals aloft look like, and in particular, the lift in the DGZ? Waaay to early to quibble over those details -- the 850/700/500/250mb setup looks terrific, as does the surface low track. Reminds me a little of the Jan 26 1987 system (2nd one)...the cold Miller A that isn't overly explosive going up the coast. At least for now..

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One of the driest, fluffy and lightest snow I've ever shoveled.

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  On 1/17/2022 at 6:31 PM, BryanInMd said:

Seems the difference between the euro and the GFS is early on.  At 66 the euro seems to be slightly slower and/or more amplified with the NS which allows the downstream interaction and phase with the Baja UL low pulling it along for the ride

 

Screen Shot 2022-01-17 at 1.26.28 PM.jpg

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This. Talked about it earlier regarding the 12z rgem. Other factors, but this is a biggie imo 

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  On 1/17/2022 at 6:57 PM, StormyClearweather said:

Per the ECMWF, DC goes below freezing at 4pm Thursday and doesn't get back above until Tue, Jan. 18. Monday morning looks bone-chilling (which is certainly in part thanks to supposed snowpack). 

 

 

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That is one HELL of a cold airmass.  Below freezing for an entire year!

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  On 1/17/2022 at 6:58 PM, Buddy1987 said:

Damn .. did they finally fix the Euro? Always used to have a very difficult time with those Baja lows, leaving the energy behind. That makes me think it’s onto something potentially 

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I find recently since the 'upgrade' that now the Euro is too fast at times to bump the energy out of the southwest. Hopefully it is sniffing something besides glue.

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