Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The control is a very low resolution from what I recall: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/medium-range-forecasts Yeah isn't it the unpertubed (same initial conditions as the OP) but run at the resolution the pertubed ensemble members are run at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: And the euro control on top of that. But it’s run from the same initial conditions as the op, and the fact they generally resemble each others’ results (excepting snow totals) on day 5 can’t be ignored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I think we can all agree that the GEFS should not be used for this storm. Lol, love to hear the reasoning here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance? It shows snow. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: But it’s run from the same initial conditions as the op, and the fact they generally resemble each others’ results (excepting snow totals) on day 5 can’t be ignored. Yes, and EPS resolution is still very high relative to other global operational models and especially other ensemble systems. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, love to hear the reasoning here. GEFS was terrible for this weekend. Doesn’t mean it will be for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 "Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance? It’s one member of the ensemble. It has the same initial conditions as the op and can be used to diagnose the impacts of the differing resolution between the ensembles and the op. I don’t think there’s any reason to give it any more weight than any other member of the ensembles, but I’d be interested hearing otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Does the European control ever matter? I think it is notorious for 2 to 3 foot snows. At this particular range it matters more than usual. The control starts off with identical data as the op and runs at Ensemble resolution. Inside of 6 days or so, the control can be more accurate than the op... caveat.... at times... Is this one of those times? Beep bop boop don't know. However, it should absolutely not disregarded because it's "the control". All good data matters 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 hours ago, yoda said: I mean... this is nice already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I missed the cmc, does it still have our storm? I, like Ji, am not ready to get excited until the NEW king GFS has a storm. It really has nailed the last 2 storms days in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Pixee said: Needs to tick 50 miles north...I'll get the nonsense started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I am a simple man I root for the model that currently shows up with the most snow. Like I said, simple 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I think we should all just listen to Ralph and forget about anything else. That guy is money 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 The gfs has been good. Also, to add to our confidence, if I’m not mistaken on both of the last two storms it has had the storm early, lost it, and then brought it back. I know it did on yesterdays storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Can't believe nobody's talking about the NAM for Thursday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 WB 12Z NAM want to bring a little snow with the next arctic front on TH. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep enthusiasm realistic guys. This is the euro. Not exactly top of the line Exactly. It's gotten to the point where I have zero excitement when it's the only model showing something for us. I woke up and saw the 0z run, yawned and went right back to sleep. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Don't know 'bout y'alls but I'm starting to grow tired of weekly snowstorms. We need to bump that up to 2. Thanks NAM! 6 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Trust the NAM guys. Take it from me. It’s a money strategy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs has been good. Also, to add to our confidence, if I’m not mistaken on both of the last two storms it has had the storm early, list it, and then brought it back. I know it did on yesterdays storm. Yeah and it's not like it's shown a consistent solution since Saturday...I think it's still figuring it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Trust the NAM guys. Take it from me. It’s a money strategy. That sounds like a casino owner giving advice on which machine to trust...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Exactly. It's gotten to the point where I have zero excitement when it's the only model showing something for us. I woke up and saw the 0z run, yawned and went right back to sleep. Otoh... I only jump into this game when it's ripe now. When you see my stupid avatar popping up you don't need models for the mid range. When I go totally dark and you still look at ops... I can't help that 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 thread for Thursday just to separate it from the weekend discussion @stormtracker @mappy @WxUSAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: thread for Thursday just to separate it from the weekend discussion @stormtracker @mappy @WxUSAF? Sure, make it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 RGEM looks better? Kinda looks like it was gearing up for something decent this weekend at H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Somebody make a damn thread already. What are we waiting for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM looks better? Kinda looks like it was gearing up for something decent this weekend at H5? I haven't been following the details in here quite so much (with yesterday's event going on). But how much does the Thursday potential influence or possibly impact anything for the weekend? I actually didn't even think of Thursday until I read a bit in here yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody make a damn thread already. What are we waiting for? I got it. North Arlington slow af 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 FWIW, ICON moved closer to something for this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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