CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:11 PM, Maestrobjwa said: You've mentioned the coastal scraper...but you don't think a legit costal-costal can happen? Or just the least likely? Expand Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Speaking of the week of the 24th- the GEFS also wants to develop a transient east based 'block' during that period. Not seeing that at all on the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:19 PM, CAPE said: Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation. Expand I know you're longing at the opportunity to drive to the beach and view another coastal blizzard but I prefer not to. Let us hope things change slightly by the week of the 24th . There appears to be the possibility of a wave breaking event that could cause a transient negative NAO, if so, maybe the coast of plain can get some sort of a moderate all snow event . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:19 PM, CAPE said: Sure it can. I mention a scraper because the h5 look for the week of the 24th suggests it is a possibility based on the mean trough position/orientation. Expand Ah okay. But man why do ya WANT a scraper tho? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:41 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Ah okay. But man why do ya WANT a scraper tho? Lol Expand There are degrees of everything. That offshore tracking 'bomb cyclone' in 2018 was an all out blizzard on the immediate coast, but still produced a moderate 6" storm at my house. Obviously I chose to drive an hour to experience the blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 FWIW, and it's not much, NAM H5 changed, no longer matching the GFS like the 12z NAM. Doesn't hold the baja low back and moves it right along. But using the 84 hour NAM is like using the 384 hour GFS. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 At what range should we be looking at the Baja low to get moving? 60-84 hours from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:52 PM, CAPE said: There are degrees of everything. That offshore tracking 'bomb cyclone' in 2018 was an all out blizzard on the immediate coast, but still produced a moderate 6" storm at my house. Obviously I chose to drive an hour to experience the blizzard. Expand One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:58 PM, dseagull said: One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. Expand I stayed at Rehoboth beach in DE. I think the total was around 14" but so much drifting I couldn't tell. It was epic though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:58 PM, dseagull said: One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. Expand Is the Stugots still docked there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 9:01 PM, Yeoman said: Is the Stugots still docked there? Expand Way back in 2011 or 2012, or 2013 they were. I should know, but haven't had them pop up on my ais system for quite a few years. (Time flies) I may have cancelled them on my vessel's ais recieving signals to avoid clutter though. Sorry, I'll take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 That was that storm I believe 4 hours from completion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:56 PM, LeesburgWx said: At what range should we be looking at the Baja low to get moving? 60-84 hours from now? Expand That's roughly the time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:58 PM, dseagull said: One of my favorite storms on barnegat bay. Had 3" an hour on the bay for 2 hours under deform band... 18.9 inches storm total. 8.5 miles inland at my deer stand had 8.1 inches. We had verified gusts to 71mph at several nearby stations. I lost mine to my patio furniture. Expand Lived out in ocean City New Jersey for that storm. Incredible getting 16 inches of cold powder considering how quick of a mover it was. Still to this day it had the strongest winds I’ve ever experienced in a snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 18z RGEM also trended away from holding back the baja s/w 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 9:18 PM, coastal front said: Lived out in ocean City New Jersey for that storm. Incredible getting 16 inches of cold powder considering how quick of a mover it was. Still to this day it had the strongest winds I’ve ever experienced in a snowstorm. Expand Was an experience. I had 4-6 foot drifts along the entire bay where I live. Very difficult storm to gauge an accurate snow total. I gave up on my 3 boards as soon as we had sustained 35 knot wind. Sorry for the hijack and glasses raised to another system like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 8:52 PM, CAPE said: There are degrees of everything. That offshore tracking 'bomb cyclone' in 2018 was an all out blizzard on the immediate coast, but still produced a moderate 6" storm at my house. Obviously I chose to drive an hour to experience the blizzard. Expand I think coastal scrapers are to you what a close cutter is to @WinterWxLuvr...But I'm biased because both of those skunk my yard, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 9:23 PM, stormtracker said: 18z RGEM also trended away from holding back the baja s/w Expand Dumb question but we want the energy to be ejected correct instead of held back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 9:48 PM, Beach Snow said: Dumb question but we want the energy to be ejected correct instead of held back? Expand Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 9:48 PM, Beach Snow said: Dumb question but we want the energy to be ejected correct instead of held back? Expand With all the vorts flying around in the NS and digging south I am not sure it matters. The GFS almost got it done at 12z with a sw dropping in over top the western ridge and left most of that southwest energy behind. It's active and difficult to know what piece(s) of energy end up being 'the ones' at this juncture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:03 PM, CAPE said: With all the vorts flying around in the NS and digging south I am not sure it matters. The GFS almost got it done at 12z with a sw dropping in over top the western ridge and left most of that southwest energy behind. It's active and difficult to know what piece(s) of energy end up being 'the ones' at this juncture. Expand 18z still has a lot of shit going on at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:10 PM, stormtracker said: 18z still has a lot of shit going on at h5 Expand I wish this was the lingo On-Camera mets used That would make for good entertainment. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:10 PM, stormtracker said: 18z still has a lot of shit going on at h5 Expand We just can't know. Kinda fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think the GFS is all alone with the sneaky Thursday wave but it has been persistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:13 PM, CAPE said: We just can't know. Kinda fun. Expand We're literally watching an atmospheric slot machine spin, lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:13 PM, CAPE said: We just can't know. Kinda fun. Expand I actually agree. We both know that models aren't going to resolve anything in this time frame with vorts just flying all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS gonna get it done? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:16 PM, Maestrobjwa said: We're literally watching an atmospheric slot machine spin, lol Expand At least it doesn’t cost everyone too much, and you’re limited to a few times a day (which some won’t like). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:16 PM, Maestrobjwa said: We're literally watching an atmospheric slot machine spin, lol Expand Yeah we just need to land all 7s or cherries or something!! And if you win, a bunch of snow comes out rather than coins! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/16/2022 at 10:21 PM, Rhino16 said: At least it doesn’t cost everyone too much, and you’re limited to a few times a day (which some won’t like). Expand Can ya imagine the level of neruoticism if we could spin every hour? (Insert 03z GFS...lol) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now