psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I wonder why @Weather Willdidnt post the snow maps from the 12z ensembles????? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Build the pattern and the snow chances will come. We do this every time. The snow always lags the pattern because there typically isn't a storm threat the minute there is some blue over the east coast. Yet every time were waiting for a good pattern the instant it shows up at day 15 people start getting frustrated when there isn't dark colors on the snow maps. Besides the fact those things are pretty awful to use in general, look at this week as an example. It's the 3rd wave/amplification of the trough in the east that is the first chance to put down snowfall. And there are likely 4-5 more waves after that coming in this pattern. But when this weeks pattern was at day 10-15 the snow maps weren't responding yet because it was too soon. Not taking any victory laps...those maps still don't mean anything other than that there ARE threats and will be opportunities to track in this pattern. We still need some luck and for one of them to produce. But I lol when some get worried if the snow means aren't responding when the good pattern is still not even starting until a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Build the pattern and the snow chances will come. We do this every time. The snow always lags the pattern because there typically isn't a storm threat the minute there is some blue over the east coast. Yet every time were waiting for a good pattern the instant it shows up at day 15 people start getting frustrated when there isn't dark colors on the snow maps. Besides the fact those things are pretty awful to use in general, look at this week as an example. It's the 3rd wave/amplification of the trough in the east that is the first chance to put down snowfall. And there are likely 4-5 more waves after that coming in this pattern. But when this weeks pattern was at day 10-15 the snow maps weren't responding yet because it was too soon. Not taking any victory laps...those maps still don't mean anything other than that there ARE threats and will be opportunities to track in this pattern. We still need some luck and for one of them to produce. But I lol when some get worried if the snow means aren't responding when the good pattern is still not even starting until a week out. to be fair--the Jan 3-4 storm that dropped 15 in Central Virginia occurred on the first day of the pattern change lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: I have been on that same question as I am driving to Cincinnati for the Bengals playoff game at 4:30 pm Saturday. I think the progression on the potential system is Sunday into Monday. My brother and I have made tentative plans to make the full drive back to Baltimore immediately following the game just in case. Good luck as well! Driving back after a night game would not happen especially with sitting outside in single to teen temp's for 10 hours or so but will get up first crack of dawn to make it back hopefully before (if it) starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ji said: to be fair--the Jan 3-4 storm that dropped 15 in Central Virginia occurred on the first day of the pattern change lol I would argue that storm happened during a transition between patterns. It was a trailing wave on a front with an initial storm that cut well NW of us. The next storm was the same situation with a cutter followed by a wave that took advantage of perfect spacing. We can get lucky with those even in just a mediocre pattern so long as there is cold lurking around, and this year we have that. The pacific driving pattern didnt really set in until this week following the cold front yesterday imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I wonder why @Weather Willdidnt post the snow maps from the 12z ensembles????? These look great! Work was killing me today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 STJ moisture hits Jan 22-24 near Mexico here v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I like this threat How did you guys do with 582dm off the West coast in 2014,2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I like this threat How did you guys do with 582dm off the West coast in 2014,2015?That's the big one. 20-26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ENSO subsurface should peak +warming in about 7 days, then I worry about -PNA trend. We might clear January though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Next storm on WB 0Z GFS for the following weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. Get a grip man. You're certain it's definite the cities won't get a flush hit 5 days in advance and now your feeling the fizzle beyond that? Are you listening to yourself? You're just walking around here dropping moist blankets on autopilot. Seems like an attempt at reverse psychology. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. Nobody is posting here because they are focused on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 For the Coastal Plain still feel the highest threat for a SECS or greater is from Jan 20 th to the 29 th . This will also coincide with the possibilty of the coldest readings of the winter so far, especially if snow cover can be achieved. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So since things are going the wrong way for the Sunday/Monday system, are we still lined up to have a relentless parade of threats in a favorable pattern the 2nd half of January? Or are those looks fizzling out as well? Ens means look ok to me and the split out west and stj look active, but it has been silent here and want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting the progs. The pattern still looks great through day 15 on all guidance. We are just focused on a discreet event and there is nothing to add. Everything that needs to be said about the coming pattern has been said. We look to have a prolonged favorable longwave pattern that probably lasts into early February. Unless something changes, and it hasn't, now its about waiting until the waves get into range for us to discuss the details. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I don't like the ridge over the SW today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12Z Euro says days 9/10 are frigid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 While we've been fixated on the day 4/5 threat, the following threat has began to make its way onto ensemble guidance. Looks like a viable setup to me Following that.. it looks like we go into the icebox. There is unanimous agreement among each ensemble suite, and the EPS stepped it up a notch with the 12z run. This mean is probably amplified due to the ensemble members holding onto snowpack, but it's.. quite the signal. For 12+ days out I don't think I've seen this sort of consensus before. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Dec-Jan roll forward (only +analogs) Not sure I agree with switch to El Nino conditions for the Summer, but here are the analogs (cold-+PNA January) *Notice how the -PNA relocates back in Feb-March despite ENSO changing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is what I like, personally. If not this February, next February. Believe it or not, but if we go +PNA this February, we will be more likely to have La Nina conditions next Winter or -AAM(+NAO), but a -PNA February would be in line with movement toward +ENSO conditions, and there would be a significant warming of Nino3.4 February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I don't like the ridge over the SW today and tomorrow. Have you had a conversation with it? Maybe you can work it out. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m thinking -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Have you had a conversation with it? Maybe you can work it out. Should be better by 2:50pm Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Saying March 93 is like taking the Lord’s name in vain. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Next chance of something looks like late next week with a possible weak wave moving along/ahead of an Arctic boundary. Looks minor at this point, but both the GFS and Euro are hinting at maybe a quick shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Shotgun remains loaded and cocked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What a pointless tweet. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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