SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 UK has a strong storm just offshore NC at 144.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Last week I said I thought by Tuesday (today) we’d know if we’re in the game for Sunday/Monday. Think we can say we are. Details will be very much variable for another couple days at least. I said after 12z yesterday's runs I wanted to see "changes" by todays 12z runs...that definitely happened lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which piece is that? (Apologies, still learning to read the H5) Look at hour 114 on the gfs right above North Dakota. Watch it as the run progresses get draw into our system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: We went from a suppressed Georgia and Carolina’s snowstorm to worrying about the strong SE flow wrecking the mid levels within 12 hours. Oh. Weather. You never disappoint. Thank god we didn’t do something dumb and create a storm thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 1993 Superstorm You didn’t. Did you? I mean … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: UK has a strong storm just offshore NC at 144.... UKIE has 6" for Atlanta and 12" for Douglas, GA (to the SE). I'll toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, Buffalo Transplant said: I know that models have been all over the place but what time frame is this for? I am heading to Buffalo Friday afternoon for the Bills game and plan on heading back sometime Sunday morning. Thanks as always. I have been on that same question as I am driving to Cincinnati for the Bengals playoff game at 4:30 pm Saturday. I think the progression on the potential system is Sunday into Monday. My brother and I have made tentative plans to make the full drive back to Baltimore immediately following the game just in case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 TWC hyping it now...now we know its legitimately...not happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Far too many pieces at play here to be TOO concerned about exact track and P-type 6 days out. It looks like the trend has started to get a monster nor’easter up the coastline. Let’s wait until at least Thursday before we begin to worry too much about minute details. I have a good feeling about this one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CMC precip map at hour 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: So are we worried about suppression or overamped? Both as usual 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: TWC hyping it now...now we know its legitimately...not happening Unless it’s Paul Kocin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said after 12z yesterday's runs I wanted to see "changes" by todays 12z runs...that definitely happened lol Just a wee bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Unless it’s Paul Kocin The GOAT. Nothing like hearing his raspy voice on TWC before a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sorry Winter Wx Lvr, it's time for a thread. Trends are not great already, so nobody can blame the thread. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: UKIE has 6" for Atlanta and 12" for Douglas, GA (to the SE). I'll toss. Going to be in Disney next week. I’ll bring a snowsuit just in case… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You didn’t. Did you? I mean … Not strength, but track!!! haha This ain't even in the same zip code in terms of strength. I do like Chaos though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorry Winter Wx Lvr, it's time for a thread. Trends are not great already, so nobody can blame the thread. Plus, the SE forum jinxed themselves long before we did. They’ve had a thread up for days. This sucker is ours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range. Us? Invested in a potential D6 MECS? never. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Ji will be happy - another snowstorm on the GFS at 384H. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Go 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sorry Winter Wx Lvr, it's time for a thread. Trends are not great already, so nobody can blame the thread. Yeah that’s fine. But I was gonna post a request that nobody starts a new long range thread. Got a good mojo going. Let this one run and I’ll start a new one for February at the right time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I don't think it is wise to get to invested in this storm yet. Just 24 hours ago we thought this had little to no shot of going up the coast, now we are worried about to much amplification. Really shows how this pattern is a little too complex for he models to handle well at range. Lol x a million 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol x a million its like he's new here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do you get a commission for bringing that storm up as much as possible or something? I know. I’m a bit overboard. I drive my wife crazy with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Huge shift on the UK. I'm sure it's been mentioned. EC likely to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, WxMan1 said: If we are, then it's about damn time. Our last El Niño was 6 years ago. We are due. CPC maps are stronger, they have +6c in the central subsurface. history shows not much correlation, although 87-88 was negative in the subsurface during El Nino, and that was followed by a Strong La Nina. re: the storm, Well, it's 25 degrees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 warmth is gravitating to the land, but it's a really good pattern. +AAM measures Earth momentum. Again, I like that cutoff piece for a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So much for that +NAO projected LR, It's a -NAO pattern this year. Feb 7-9-2022 +NAO is a big test. (^The timing of this -NAO lifting out isn't going to match STJ energy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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