Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, now we got too much of a good thing. Still fun. 18z will be different. We're actually in a good spot, adjustment wise. Well we need to stop the westward trend that has been happening since the 18Z yesterday and reverse it a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Uppercut punch of heavy rain with a 990 low over basically Fredericksburg at hour 138, 6z monday. As Ji would say, a total disaster. Rain, I can't believe, a huge shift. Spacing and timing, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Being in Winchester, I'll take the way the GFS has it modeled this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Stuff of nightmares 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Well we need to stop the westward trend that has been happening since the 18Z yesterday and reverse it a little. GEFS will be very interesting me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Two more runs and its "CONGRATS GARY INDIANA!!" 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well we need to stop the westward trend that has been happening since the 18Z yesterday and reverse it a little. On the GFS maybe. Euro still has this thing suppressed all the way to the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hold on...hold on... Keep your eyes on the prize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 wow 983mb right over NYC at 144, winter 'cane territory there. Stalls a bit then takes off NE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Need a met to tell me an RDU, ezf, to NYC track is unlikely or against climo. Kthnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 People probably thinking I was joking about Cleveland lol, but only partly. If you live south of a line from Asheville to Richmond, I think you better temper expectations. This has all the makings IMO of a storm coming across the mid south that pushes a hefty warm wedge in front of it. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Looks like 2018 Best storm I can remember in chapel hill, though some of my wake county NC friends were victim of that awful gradient over Raleigh. I’ll be willing all that yellow blob northeast this time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: On the GFS maybe. Euro still has this thing suppressed all the way to the Bahamas. Don't we just throw out the Euro these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 21 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you’re thinking you’re getting the Atlantic system to back into the coast, my recommendation is a rehab center. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Right on cue the bowling ball over the ne now looks like it is lifting out earlier and the ns sw is not quite as deep. If the ost is an indicator these are the trends that will continue. At least the gfs has stopped with the wild swings at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Need a met to tell me an RDU, ezf, to NYC track is unlikely or against climo. Kthnx On my phone so can’t post a graphic, but take a look at 500mb. It’s hard for a shortwave to turn the corner so sharply when it’s still moving SEward and positively tilted coming across the MS river. GFS is about the sharpest corner turn you can see. For it to cut west, it will need to track farther west out in the Plains and/or be neutrally tilted sooner. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Obviously a track like that from the SLP would yield a transition period from snow to IP/ZR, but it was still a very good 5H setup for a front end crush job prior to any changeover. This was a classic I-81 storm track where deformation axis would ride from RNK to HBG. The western side of the LP on the precip field was a little wonky for such a dynamic system. I would see it more defined than what the GFS had. Regardless, the prospects of some snow are definitely on the table. Favored areas probably west of I-95 with most favorable west of Rt 15. Long way to go. No where near settled and big swings are certainly possible. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: This is a completely different system. Please try to keep up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Don't we just throw out the Euro these days? Yes. Trash model. Just ask DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 hours ago, Snowchaser said: At this rate we will see white rain. I’m not getting my hopes up yet. I wouldn’t worry about temps too much here. Plenty of cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can we blend Icon and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looking at the black and white maps but appears the CMC looks similar to GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Operational GFS is definitely riding the NW edge of the ensemble envelope of solutions. If you’re optimistic that means plenty of room to adjust to less of a cutting solution, if you’re pessimistic that means the op is leading the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Too warm, too west, only 11" of digital snow for CHO, which will be gone by the 18z Next. (Am I doing this right?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looking at soundings, I would see this more of an IP than a rain situation outside of south of Rt 50 and east of the Bay. GFS scouring the airmass so fast in the lowest confines of the boundary. Also, the wet bulb aspect of the forecast is bizarre. GFS brings the dew point up to the temperature with no drop in the temp within a 3 hr window. Would call complete BS on that as well. That track has yielded IP plenty of times. ULL is also cold as hell with it dropping to 528dm over Wakefield and 525dm over Dover. Color me skeptical of the reach of pure liquid. 850mb jet is screaming, so a transition would be all but probable, but the pure change to rain probably wouldn't be as likely west of the fall line. 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I’m curious, have we ever NOT changed to rain or sleet when the low track is directly over us like that from a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Canadian definitely closely resembles the GFS more than it's 0z run did. It's vastly different than the prior run at H5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GEFS still has a lot of spread but there are fewer members that are uber-suppressed, FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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