frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Solid, just looking at that stripe it must be a 6z GFS type evolution right? ICON came way North 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs has a southern stream type storm and track in the east but tracks first through Manitoba, Des Moines, St Louie. Not much of a jump/redevelop at all either. Not saying anything is impossible but when I can't recall a reasonable similar scenario at any time in the past, my doubt meter spikes. That type of synoptic setup happened several times in the 1950's 60s and 70s but has not been common at all since. And definitely with you on the skepticism of that look. Not sure what happened that long ago is really relevant to what is likely in today's climate. But I suppose it means it's not "meteorologically impossible" as someone likes to say...but maybe just more "meteorologically improbable" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know people hate our typical warm Christmas but having a cold pattern set in early January is perfect to maximize our snowfall opportunities. Why cant it start on dec 23? I don't know...but there has been 2 very distinct "pattern flip" trigger points to the US winter patterns over the last 30 years or so. One is in November and the other just after xmas. We have had plenty of cold/snowy patterns early but they tend to wane and expire just before xmas. And we have had many colder periods start just after xmas. For whatever reason xmas itself seems to fall in a dead zone. Whether that is just really bad luck or there is some legitimate causality out there to my anecdotal observations I don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sweet animation 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, frd said: For sure, lots of cold and active. Even Walt Drag is excited and the super long range modeling keeps extending the winter pattern. A slight digression, but as a kid growing up in southern New England, Walt Drag's AFDs were a winter highlight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Pretty useful website I came across. Has the NAM and HRRR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, hstorm said: A slight digression, but as a kid growing up in southern New England, Walt Drag's AFDs were a winter highlight. Yup. Having Walt at Mt. Holly was a treat. When he gets excited, hang onto your hat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 22 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: We are heading into El Nino, it looks like I showed you the counter example, 1987-88 where the cold subsurface water during El Nino gave us a lot of southern jet High pressures. I think the warm bubble in the subsurface won't last past April-May, but it does directly correlate to +PNA conditions directly(when 165W-135W is warm-warming). If we are, then it's about damn time. Our last El Niño was 6 years ago. We are due. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, frd said: I don't think I've ever seen the ICON spit out more than 12" of snow, anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, frd said: ICON came way North I love how TT just completely skips hours 102 through 144 for the ICON 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: I love how TT just completely skips hours 102 through 144 for the ICON It “yada yadas” over the best part. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I bet the GFS is even further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Interstate said: I bet the GFS is even further west. How much because I don't know if I would make that bet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I love how TT just completely skips hours 102 through 144 for the ICON The best part is that the snowfall map still works from that time, just not the precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 The confluence in the ne is tricky. Too little and this goes to Cleveland lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: 75 miles did you actually see the 06z? i don't think you want that to happen "if" that's the correct idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I don't think I've ever seen the ICON spit out more than 12" of snow, anywhere I’ve certainly never seen green from it on the TT maps before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 ICON not there yet but if it delays the ns energy a little more I think we’d be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: did you actually see the 06z? i don't think you want that to happen "if" that's the correct idea I do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: did you actually see the 06z? i don't think you want that to happen "if" that's the correct idea Oh I dont want it to happen... that would be all rain for me... but that is what I am seeing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 You are on drugs if you think this storm is viable for all but a very small sub-section of this community. Prove me wrong? Don't resort to ad hominem stuff. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 WB 12Z ICON doesn't look as impressive as SVWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: You are on drugs if you think this storm is viable for all but a very small sub-section of this community. Prove me wrong? Don't resort to ad hominem stuff. What's the point of this? 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said: You are on drugs if you think this storm is viable for all but a very small sub-section of this community. Prove me wrong? Don't resort to ad hominem stuff. What’s your definition of “viable”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, weathercoins said: What’s your definition of “viable”? If it's not "region-wide", it doesn't exist apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So early impressions....seeing some positive developments on the GFS so far. NE upper low seems to be relaxed more vs 6z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What's the point of this? Stop people from having meltdowns over phantom storms. I hate these one's. This is big league if you miss it you will feel like sh**. Just like January 2016 only displaced westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So early impressions....seeing some positive developments on the GFS so far. NE upper low seems to be relaxed more vs 6z I see this has bring the MLK storm as a cutter... that is just my opinion though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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