Solution Man Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Let me try and translate: 06z GFS is wild and white for Monday. Good pattern. Good vort passage, periodic chilly in the future. 2-4 is his first guess. then pattern stabilizes at some point later Let me try, chance of snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: The depictions are historic suppression looking and I dont see a strong enough high in the right place to do that In this case the suppression isn’t from surface pressure it’s from the mid and upper level steering currents. A combination of the trough axis being a bit too Far East and an amplifying tpv lobe to our northeast places a strong NW flow over the east that doesn’t relax until the system is too far southeast for us. Maybe that’s wrong but it’s the flow in the mid and upper levels we need to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: Westminster jackpot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I haven’t analyzed the 500 maps much but almost looks like a Jan 2000 situation on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Today I learned the word Toricity on the weather forums. Apparently it's a real thing in eyeballs. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4142625/#:~:text=The toricity is usually defined,of the cornea42-44. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS Yes!!! 6Z GFS compared to 6Z EPS… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS For sure, kinda as if it replaced the GEFS for their respective 6z runs. Pretty acceptable lp mean given time to improve 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 WB 6Z EURO Control also took a step toward GFS. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On top of the 6z and eps, Check out the 6z euro control...was about to destroy DC Can the GFS win again?! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6z gefs are head scratching. The Friday system on the means is closer than the Monday system. You would think compared to the ops that the days got reversed on the GEFS. GEFS want little to nothing to do with Monday: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: For sure, kinda as if it replaced the GEFS for their respective 6z runs. Pretty acceptable lp mean given time to improve Thanks for posting. Do you have this plot for 00z? I subscribe to Pivotal and they have basically no EPS products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, 87storms said: I haven’t analyzed the 500 maps much but almost looks like a Jan 2000 situation on the gfs. Ah! Not carbon copies or anything but for sure strange and similar with the entire track/progression. I'll have to look at the Jan 2000 h5 maps tonight. Interesting. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ah! Not carbon copies or anything but for sure strange and similar with the entire track/progression. I'll have to look at the Jan 2000 h5 maps tonight. Interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z gefs are head scratching. The Friday system on the means is closer than the Monday system. You would think compared to the ops that the days got reversed on the GEFS. GEFS want little to nothing to do with Monday: Way different than the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Thanks for posting. Do you have this plot for 00z? I subscribe to Pivotal and they have basically no EPS products. Definitely a NW lean on 6z compared to 0z. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can anyone answer as to whether or not RAOB sites have improved for model data purposes out in sparse regions of Canada to help us with the vort inbound and timing purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, mappy said: Let me try and translate: 06z GFS is wild and white for Monday. Good pattern. Good vort passage, periodic chilly in the future. 2-4 is his first guess. then pattern stabilizes at some point later You needed to lead your post with this: 5 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Another brutal western cutoff. You are killing us man. Actually we would take this in a heartbeat compared to what the Euro is saying. Pretty clear battle going on right now. GFS/ICON vs. Euro/CMC. Still a ton of time left though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 If we were 24 hours before go time, I would be excited. I feel like Lucy has another football! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: If we were 24 hours before go time, I would be excited. I feel like Lucy has another football! This is every storm though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, H2O said: You needed to lead your post with this: Top 10 all time post right here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: If we were 24 hours before go time, I would be excited. I feel like Lucy has another football! Yeah, I’m gonna have to lean no storm on this one. Sorry everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You are killing us man. Actually we would take this in a heartbeat compared to what the Euro is saying. Pretty clear battle going on right now. GFS/ICON vs. Euro/CMC. Still a ton of time left though. C’mon man. It only showed a foot of snow. How can he be expected to be happy with that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Top 10 all time post right here. Yes...that was his BEST MEME EVER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DT honking big time for the GFS solution. Which is a change of pace. The GFS did pretty well with the last two systems. Not saying this is the final solution by any means. But getting harder to just dismiss the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Interesting, but all options are on the table at this time for the Mid Atlantic Southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The GFS went from another Boxing Day 2010 to another January 2000 in the next run. Obviously this is all very far from certain and it's still being figured out but let's hope the final outcome is similar to this latest run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support. Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way. At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark. Sage analysis.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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