Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. For sure but what happens between 72 and 84 hours...only 3 days away seems to have significant bearing for the weekend so we should have a better hande in next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Lol most useless chart 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Hope the GFS is right but WB 6Z GEFS support is minimal. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved. The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. For sure but what happens between 72 and 84 hours...only 3 days away seems to have significant bearing for the weekend so we should have a better hande in next day or so The 2 primary things to watch imo are the speed of the ocean low moving up towards the Maritimes, and timing/location that piece of energy dropping in over the ridge from Canada. Look at the position of that shortwave on the 6z GFS compared to a couple runs ago. It was acting like a kicker and on the latest run there is more spacing between it and the Maritimes low, allowing heights to build to our NE. It tries to partially phase, pulls the coastal further westward and it gains more latitude. Who knows if the GFS has the right idea here but it underscores the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Over the last few days there have been concerned about that ocean storm mucking up everything. I notice that the ocean storm is still there and moving out so have things changed in that regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support. Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way. At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yep...this weekend is looking more like the weekend to start tracking whatever comes the next week/weekend, lol Great post 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 FWIW the NYC crew also started a storm thread. One to our south and now to the north, that means we are in the cross hairs (Move to banter if needed)Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 hours ago, Interstate said: I think we might like this run a little better looking at the H5 panels I was two runs off. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: It tries to partially phase Was just looking at that. Watch the development over the past few runs with that. That happens? Oh boy, might be congrats Pittsburgh. Wintertime Sandy, inland version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralVaNATS said: FWIW the NYC crew also started a storm thread. (Move to banter if needed) Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Why would we need a storm thread for a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: For posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Hope the GFS is right but WB 6Z GEFS support is minimal.Bummer very little support for that extreme run at this point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 GFS from 20th advertising 32° and below for the entire run. Then Texas goes into the icebox. Feb2021 again ???Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This looks like a tricky one that will bounce around on the modeling a good bit for a while. Flow is very volatile. Cutoff low too? Always tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowchaser said: At this rate we will see white rain. I’m not getting my hopes up yet. Thanks for the update on your hopes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: Morning AFD from LWX (4am update) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will move into the region Friday, with cooler air and a gustier wind as low pressure strengthens off the coast. Highs will drop 5-10 degrees below Thursday`s readings. From then, all attention is on the potential weekend snowstorm. A great deal of uncertainty with this system remains, given the long-wave trough over the region which could support intense cyclogenesis (as depicted by the 0Z GFS). However, the trajectory of the shortwave energy will make a huge amount of difference as it dives south across the Plains later this week and then rounds the base of the trough. If it ends up too shallow, it could move off the coast before strengthening significantly, as suggested by various model runs over the last few days. If it ends up diving too deep, it could potentially end up digging well to our south and remain there, as depicted by the 0Z ECMWF and GGEM. 0Z GFS is near a golden sweet spot, but this situation will likely evolve significantly over the next few days as guidance gets a better handle on the disturbances involved. In particular, the main shortwave energy remains over the north Pacific south of the Aelutians, a fairly data sparse area, which means guidance could change significantly in any direction as better observational information on the shortwave is included. The one thing we are relatively confident in is that it will be cold. With the trough in place and a fresh high pressure building in behind the front later this week, temps likely struggle to reach freezing over the weekend, particularly Saturday. This is a very useful disco. People should read this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white. Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us. Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4. Stable reoccurring pattern. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, winterymix said: Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white. Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us. Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4. Stable reoccurring pattern. Did you have a stroke? If so, sorry brother 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can’t be posted enough 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, winterymix said: Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white. Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us. Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4. Stable reoccurring pattern. Wat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 22 minutes ago, winterymix said: Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white. Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us. Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4. Stable reoccurring pattern. So what you're saying is Monday's GFS is snowy and the pattern looks to be stable with occasional 2-4" snows in the advertised pattern....BRILLIANT!! Thanks Chance the Gardener 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wat Yeah. It’s too early to take the LSD necessary to sort that out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It would be nice to see other models pivot toward the GFS current solution today and to see ensembles show some support. Like a lot of our setups, until we get into the short range, it could go either way. At least with cold air around we are in the ballpark.Thanks for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Gfs has a southern stream type storm and track in the east but tracks first through Manitoba, Des Moines, St Louie. Not much of a jump/redevelop at all either. Not saying anything is impossible but when I can't recall a reasonable similar scenario at any time in the past, my doubt meter spikes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yeah. It’s too early to take the LSD necessary to sort that out. Maybe for you. Where I come from it's never too early for LSD. Maybe too early for 3 tabs tho... uh oh ... hmm.... brb 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Bob Chill is almost out. That means I am also almost out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Bob Chill is almost out. That means I am also almost out I'll clarify. In on snow chance for weekend until it's confirmed no go. Out on the Miller B that cross dressed as a Miller A on the 6z gfs 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 47 minutes ago, winterymix said: Monday, GFS 500 Z is wild and white. Good patter, re-occurring toricity near us. Peiodic chilly white falls of 2 to 4. Stable reoccurring pattern. Let me try and translate: 06z GFS is wild and white for Monday. Good pattern. Good vort passage, periodic chilly in the future. 2-4 is his first guess. then pattern stabilizes at some point later 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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