January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Amped]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

That helps, it's a pure spacing issue with the wave behind and the wave off coast. It's actually more the TPV in SE canada that ends up squashing things. The ocean low phases with it. 

While the ULL diving south is closed and robust the trough axis is positively tilted.

One way we can still win is if the main ULL has more latitude as it heads east. I honestly prefer it NOT to dig too far South to begin with. I dont think theres enough spacing for this thing to turn a corner and ride the coast.

TL/DR: Strength and Latitude ftw 

 

CMC is quicker and drops the 500mb low right over us.  I don't see how that spacing is going to work for anything more than a clipper though.

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

CMC is quicker and drops the 500mb low right over us.  I don't see how that spacing is going to work for anything more than a clipper though.

 

 

 

I don’t think this was ever gonna be more than a 2-4 clipper 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d feel worse if an op does that. We are still a long way out.

It can still change but we’re probably about 24 more hours of this trend continuing from me putting the MLK weekend threat into the “highly unlikely moving on” category.  The trend we don’t like has actually been happening steadily for like 3 days.  
 

This was the look I really liked 3 days ago. 

Look at the spacing between the trough digging into the central US and the through over the Atlantic. Also note the hints at a weak low over the Canadien maritime. Just enough to prevent cutting but not suppressive. Plenty of room for that to amplify but the axis of the whole pinwheel around the PV is far enough east I wasn’t too worried about a cutter.  Plus note there is stj energy phased up with the trough. That was a really good look. 
 

But look at the latest run. 

Everything went the wrong way. The stj got left behind. The Atlantic trough trended slower and the one digging into the US faster. There is no space to amplify now. Look at the flow over New England now v what was advertised 3 days ago. They are all subtle typical errors for that range but they all went the opposite way of how we wanted.  If this spacing issue continues to degrade I don’t think we’re that far from this being in the very unlikely category.  Tomorrow it will be inside 100 hours.  Huge longwave errors start to become less likely after that imo. I’d like to see improvement by 12z tomorrow.  

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

@CAPE

You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. 

This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see...

Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol

I went back and dug that up a couple winters ago. Just epic. Instant classic, and maybe the best series of posts ever made here.

[Ji]

It can still change but we’re probably about 24 more hours of this trend continuing from me putting the MLK weekend threat into the “highly unlikely moving on” category.  The trend we don’t like has actually been happening steadily for like 3 days.  
 
This was the look I really liked 3 days ago. 

Look at the spacing between the trough digging into the central US and the through over the Atlantic. Also note the hints at a weak low over the Canadien maritime. Just enough to prevent cutting but not suppressive. Plenty of room for that to amplify but the axis of the whole pinwheel around the PV is far enough east I wasn’t too worried about a cutter.  Plus note there is stj energy phased up with the trough. That was a really good look. 
 
But look at the latest run. 

Everything went the wrong way. The stj got left behind. The Atlantic trough trended slower and the one digging into the US faster. There is no space to amplify now. Look at the flow over New England now v what was advertised 3 days ago. They are all subtle typical errors for that range but they all went the opposite way of how we wanted.  If this spacing issue continues to degrade I don’t think we’re that far from this being in the very unlikely category.  Tomorrow it will be inside 100 hours.  Huge longwave errors start to become less likely after that imo. I’d like to see improvement by 12z tomorrow.  

Blue over us at 500 isnt always a unicorn

[Ji]

Now that's a strong winter killing pv!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2022011018&fh=0

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It can still change but we’re probably about 24 more hours of this trend continuing from me putting the MLK weekend threat into the “highly unlikely moving on” category.  The trend we don’t like has actually been happening steadily for like 3 days.  
 
This was the look I really liked 3 days ago. 

Look at the spacing between the trough digging into the central US and the through over the Atlantic. Also note the hints at a weak low over the Canadien maritime. Just enough to prevent cutting but not suppressive. Plenty of room for that to amplify but the axis of the whole pinwheel around the PV is far enough east I wasn’t too worried about a cutter.  Plus note there is stj energy phased up with the trough. That was a really good look. 
 
But look at the latest run. 

Everything went the wrong way. The stj got left behind. The Atlantic trough trended slower and the one digging into the US faster. There is no space to amplify now. Look at the flow over New England now v what was advertised 3 days ago. They are all subtle typical errors for that range but they all went the opposite way of how we wanted.  If this spacing issue continues to degrade I don’t think we’re that far from this being in the very unlikely category.  Tomorrow it will be inside 100 hours.  Huge longwave errors start to become less likely after that imo. I’d like to see improvement by 12z tomorrow.  

Blue over us at 500 isnt always a unicorn

Yea often a day before an event we want ridging if there is already cold locked in. Note the look I liked a lot more has a lot less blue. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Now that's a strong winter killing pv!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2022011018&fh=0

Thank god we don’t live at 10 mb. Plus it gets displaced in a few days then elongated and stretched in the long range. Furthermore it’s not coupled well to the TPV which is what impacts us a lot more.  The PV isn’t very high on my list of problems right now. 

[psuhoffman]

This is the kind of pattern where I fully expect something to become a clear discreet threat while we’re busy lamenting something else. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is the kind of pattern where I fully expect something to become a clear discreet threat while we’re busy lamenting something else. 

This Friday....shades of Jan 25, 2000 

[Amped]

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think this was ever gonna be more than a 2-4 clipper 

Got a high in the perfect spot, a 50/50 low and the shortwave is a well defined 540-546 split. This is usually how a KU storm starts, not saying it will happen though.

[aldie 22]

On 1/8/2022 at 12:20 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Big ones are locked in early yadayada

I've been away for a bit how's this one looking?

[jewell2188]

17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I've been away for a bit how's this one looking?

The real question is what kind of BS is DT going to spill tomorrow? I’m sure he’ll blame Covid.

[Ji]

The problem with being in a really good pattern is the expectation that we get a winter storm watch every 3-4 days

[jayyy]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I'm not sure that post was well thought through. Now I have to root for union bridge busts. I didn't make these rules. Just following. 

 lmao! Fair enough. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

NAM. I don’t even know how to analyze that.

[George BM]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM. I don’t even know how to analyze that.

The Wintercane will be an Apps runner by gametime. 

[jayyy]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM. I don’t even know how to analyze that.

*runs to look*

[WinterWxLuvr]

The NAM usually is at its best when it’s on it’s own … planet.

[clskinsfan]

Its whacked out. Just retire the damn thing already. Sometimes I honestly feel like I could stick a paint brush in my dogs mouth and let him go to work on a piece of canvas and it would be more accurate. 

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAM usually is at its best when it’s on it’s own … planet.

The NAM is being run from Elon Musk's Tesla which is en route to Mars.

[MillvilleWx]

The difference in the s/w position between hr 78 on the 00z and 84 on the 18z run is just slightly different. What's 200 miles between friends eh?

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The NAM usually is at its best when it’s on it’s own … planet.

But.....it nailed the NW extent of the 2016 Blizzard!!! 

Blind squirrels, nuts, and something something 2000....

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The difference in the s/w position between hr 78 on the 00z and 84 on the 18z run is just slightly different. What's 200 miles between friends eh?

NAM says … hold my beer

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The difference in the s/w position between hr 78 on the 00z and 84 on the 18z run is just slightly different. What's 200 miles between friends eh?

The 0z mostly just looks slower with the progression.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 0z mostly just looks slower with the progression.

Yeah. Much slower at that. NAM might just being NAM things. It tends to do that at range, so I wouldn't even consider it unless there's a trend with other guidance. Then I'd raise the eyebrows. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

We are getting some pretty big swings in guidance. ICON continues that.

[Ji]

These 2 have been fighting since 1999

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It can still change but we’re probably about 24 more hours of this trend continuing from me putting the MLK weekend threat into the “highly unlikely moving on” category.  The trend we don’t like has actually been happening steadily for like 3 days.  
 

This was the look I really liked 3 days ago. 

Look at the spacing between the trough digging into the central US and the through over the Atlantic. Also note the hints at a weak low over the Canadien maritime. Just enough to prevent cutting but not suppressive. Plenty of room for that to amplify but the axis of the whole pinwheel around the PV is far enough east I wasn’t too worried about a cutter.  Plus note there is stj energy phased up with the trough. That was a really good look. 
 

But look at the latest run. 

Everything went the wrong way. The stj got left behind. The Atlantic trough trended slower and the one digging into the US faster. There is no space to amplify now. Look at the flow over New England now v what was advertised 3 days ago. They are all subtle typical errors for that range but they all went the opposite way of how we wanted.  If this spacing issue continues to degrade I don’t think we’re that far from this being in the very unlikely category.  Tomorrow it will be inside 100 hours.  Huge longwave errors start to become less likely after that imo. I’d like to see improvement by 12z tomorrow.  

Uh oh, almost time to trot out "your" hamburger disco from last year.  

[Vice-Regent]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

These 2 have been fighting since 1999

Reel yourself in man. Kind of uncalled for to post this in here and everyone knows the vax is ill-conceived or at the very least ineffectual.

Everyone I know has stopped taking it unilaterally but they already got most people early on.